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U.S. Economic Outlook and Retail Investor Sentiment: Q2 Peak and the Future of Cryptocurrency

Economic Forecast: U.S. Economy May Peak in Q2

According to the latest weekly report released by Coinbase, the U.S. economic forecast shows a striking trend - the second quarter of 2024 may become a peak of economic development. This forecast not only triggered extensive discussions in the market about future economic trends, but also quietly affected investors' mentality and decision-making.

Retail Investor Sentiment: Conservative Tendency Under Recession Concerns

It is worth noting that the report further analyzes the possible reactions of retail investors under this economic forecast. If the U.S. economy enters a recession after reaching its peak, retail investors may become more cautious about new investments. Specifically, they may reduce new positions in high-risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies and seek more stable investment havens.

Election and Fiscal Expansion: Potential Opportunities for Bitcoin

However, the report does not stop at discussing the short-term economic impact. It also keenly captures the expectations of fiscal expansion that may be brought about by the U.S. election in November. Regardless of the election results, the new government will often launch a series of fiscal policies to stimulate the economy after taking office, which is seen as an important factor in driving the demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin. In this context, Bitcoin, as a potential alternative to the traditional financial system, has further highlighted its investment value.

Conclusion: An investment environment with both challenges and opportunities

In summary, the expectation that the US economy may peak in Q2 and the ensuing recession concerns are quietly changing the risk preferences of retail investors. However, under the expectation of fiscal expansion brought about by the election, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have shown new investment charm. This complex and changing investment environment is full of challenges and unprecedented opportunities. For investors, how to find a balance in it will be the key to determining their future returns.

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Who will win the US election?

While Trump has a clear advantage in prediction markets, the latest economic data suggests that incumbent Harris could benefit from some positives.

Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said that based on an analysis of historical election data, the election results in four key states (Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania) are difficult to predict, accounting for a combined 57 votes. Electoral votes.

Recent simulations show that significant declines in mortgage rates and continued declines in gas prices are improving Harris' odds.

Additionally, an increase in family income may also help her odds. Begley pointed out that Harris' projected advantage in the national popular vote increased by 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to an increase in the forecast of real household income in each state.

The model shows that Harris has a 55.5% chance of winning.

#美国大选比特币价格预测 #经济预测

Macroeconomic observation next week: Fed rate cut expectations rise, market awaits key economic data

After the release of CPI data this week, the market has maintained a high level of attention to the Fed's rate cut trend. Although there is a view that the data may overshadow the rate cut basis point in November after its release, the US PPI data for September released on Friday showed that inflation has cooled down and remained flat month-on-month, which provides support for the Fed to cut interest rates next month.

At the beginning of next week, there will be no important economic data released in the United States, and the market will focus on the US September retail sales data next Thursday. Therefore, it is believed that the market's reaction may be very direct, because if the data is unexpectedly higher than expected, it may support the strength of the US dollar; otherwise, it may put pressure on the US dollar.

Next week's macro market dynamics worth paying attention to:

- On Monday evening, the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for September were released.

- In the early hours of Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller spoke on the economic outlook.

- On Tuesday evening, Daly, a 2024 FOMC voting member and president of the San Francisco Fed, spoke at an event at the New York University Stern School of Business and participated in a dialogue.

- On Wednesday, the monthly rate of the US import price index in September was released.

- In the early hours of Wednesday, Kugler, a voting member of the FOMC in 2025 and a member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivered a speech.

- On Thursday evening, Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, delivered a welcome speech at the annual meeting. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 12, the monthly rate of retail sales in September in the United States, and the October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in the United States;

- On Friday, the annual rate of core CPI in Japan in September was released, as well as the annual rate of GDP in the third quarter of China, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in September in China, and the year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size in September in China.

- On Friday evening, Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC in 2026 and President of the Minneapolis Fed, delivered a speech.

These events will provide the market with further economic indicators and policy trends, and investors need to pay close attention to make corresponding investment decisions.

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📈#USBLSCPI data is coming! Are financial markets ready?

Investors, fasten your seat belts, there is big news tonight!

📊 At 20:30 Beijing time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI data for June 2024. This report may bring a lot of waves to the market.

According to forecasts, the unadjusted CPI annual rate in June is expected to slow to 3.1%, down from the previous 3.3%. Will this be a signal of slowing inflation? Or is it a short-term fluctuation? 🤔
#Everybeat of the US CPI data affects the heart of the Federal Reserve and our investment decisions. If the data is in line with expectations, it may consolidate the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September and bring positive effects to the financial market.

On the contrary, if the data is unexpected, it may trigger a new round of market fluctuations. So, let's pay close attention to tonight's CPI data, which will tell us more clues about the economic situation and future monetary policy.

Don't forget that the market is always changing rapidly, be prepared and seize the opportunity! 💼

What do you think of tonight's CPI data? Is it an easing of inflation or a prelude to a rate cut? Share your predictions and opinions in the comments section, let us witness this moment together!

#美国CPI数据即将公布 #通胀数据 #美联储 #金融市场 #经济预测