After Bitcoin broke 68,000 yesterday morning, it retraced, then started to rise in the afternoon, reaching 69,000 by 9 PM and slightly retracing. In the early morning, around 6 AM, it charged again and took the 70,000 USD mark. Since the drop on July 29, it has been exactly three months, and Bitcoin has once again stood at 70,000, aligning with my mid-month expectations for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is strongly sideways, strongly pulling up, strongly adjusting.
70,000 is an important psychological barrier. Here, the MACD bars show divergence. The joke is that divergence can lead to sideways movement or corrections, or it can spike. However, shorting before right-side signals appear is a very uncost-effective choice. Since 49,000, it has been an upward trend. Don't short, don't go against the trend; following the trend is the way to make money.
Altcoins have been fickle to me, but BTC will always wait for me to come home!
In recent years, how many new coins have emerged in the crypto market? Just on Solana, meme generators can issue tens of thousands of coins in a single day. There are more and more monks, but less and less meat. Coupled with new investors adhering to the principle of 'trading new, not old' and 'not taking over each other's positions', it's easy to imagine how thoroughly the hearts of those holding a handful of altcoins have become cold!
It has been a full 7 months since BTC broke a new high in March, and now BTC has returned to the 70,000 throne. At this moment, ETH is down a full 40% from the March peak.
Bitcoin reached 70,000 for the first time, Ethereum at 4,000.
Bitcoin reached 70,000 for the second time, Ethereum at 3,900.
Bitcoin reached 70,000 for the third time, Ethereum at 3,300.
Bitcoin reached 70,000 for the fourth time, Ethereum at 2,500.
This wave of Ethereum seems to be caught in a crisis. The value of Ethereum is either 10,000 or zero; this wave will lead Ethereum to such a turning point.
I've summarized several reasons for Ethereum's sluggishness:
1, Vitalik is focused on women, while the foundation is focused on selling coins.
2, the 2% holding sell-off issue of Grayscale; so far, Grayscale has sold over 1 million Ethereum.
3, ETHFI, LDO, ENA, BB and other old and new Ethereum concepts have generated huge profits but are also a massive bubble.
ETH seems to have a low price, but in fact, many large stakers have obtained enormous profits while holding positions on other platforms. In the case of ETH being sluggish, the airdrops received from staking will also be sold off. When large holders feel that the price of ETH after staking and selling is no longer suitable, they will continue to sell Ethereum. This will then affect the prices of Ethereum-related tokens, creating a vicious cycle. About half a month ago, a large staker sold off more than 10,000 ETH after the staking period ended; this is not an isolated case.
4, losing left and right arms (ICO and DeFi)
In the last round, Ethereum had almost the biggest bull market, and despite competition, it still dominated. In this round, SOL is very strong, along with other public chains. With ETH losing its advantages in ICO and DeFi, MEME unable to catch up with SOL, and without innovation, it has been squeezed for survival space; it is also a matter of timing.
Does ETH still have a chance in the future?
First, we need to see if Vitalik will return to shore, actively innovate, and strengthen ETH's competitiveness.
Secondly, we need to see when Grayscale's ETF will reach a flow balance. If the outflow does not reach a balance point, the institutions won't be willing to give Grayscale an opportunity to exit at high positions. According to data, Grayscale still has 2.63 million tokens, and the outflow speed is not fast, which may take a long time.
Thirdly, we need to look at the development of competing products, which rise and fall alternately.
So does Ethereum still have a chance?
Simply put: Yes, it may disappoint everyone in the short term, but there is still hope in the long term.
Lastly, let's talk about what points to pay attention to in the market after Bitcoin breaks 70,000:
(1) When Bitcoin runs out of space, we need to focus on altcoins. What are altcoins? Everything except Bitcoin;
(2) Pay attention to the counterattack of VC coins, which may be very fierce;
(3) Pay attention to potential opportunities in emerging narrative-level tracks; no fresh ideas? ETH narrative? SOL's meme?
(4) The above is the overall thinking of expanding the results of this wave of overall trend. Bitcoin beta will always be there; the barbell strategy is applicable.
(5) After the secondary market becomes active, the trading players who have recently been overshadowed by on-chain players may regain some momentum; switching back to Bitcoin after a wave of altcoin spikes remains a very effective strategy.
