1. An interesting thing about Trump's election: it is said that Trump loves to eat puppies, which negatively impacts the current election. This has been debunked and greatly undermines his election

2. Russian President #普京 and Indian Prime Minister Modi shared a friendly moment at the BRICS summit

Putin: I thought our relationship was so good that you could understand without translation?

Modi: Laughing loudly

It seems that cooperation among major powers is all based on interests!

3. Oh my, Israel has struck again: an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building in the important hub of Tayouneh in Beirut, near landmarks such as Hosh Beirut and the Beirut Arena

4. Many Republicans indicated that they do not support Trump, but also dislike Harris's economic policies. So, who are you going to choose? Stop being indecisive!

5. Qing Dynasty consumers are cautious, yet sales during Double 11 have declined. Analysts and merchants expect sales growth to level off. Despite significant discounts, economic difficulties, job instability, and consumer fatigue have dampened enthusiasm

6. With increasing and escalating military exercises and threats from China, Taiwan has revealed its wartime food strategy, conducting monthly inventories of key supplies such as rice and establishing rationing stations across the island

7. According to The Paper: the Qing Dynasty should issue 2 trillion yuan in special government bonds to help establish a market stabilization fund

However, the International Monetary Fund's Gulen Chas stated: the stimulus measures announced by the Chinese central bank are not sufficient to significantly boost economic growth. We are waiting for details on China's fiscal stimulus measures

8. According to a Bloomberg News poll from last month, 40% of swing state voters indicated that their primary concern when voting is the economy, rather than who becomes president (Figure 1)

9. Discuss #美联储降息

Since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has risen by 60 basis points in one month, and for the first time since July, it has broken through 4.20%. The average interest rate on 30-year mortgages has skyrocketed in the past four weeks, with mortgage rates rising from 6.1% to 6.8%

However, after the release of the September employment report, the Federal Reserve's argument has actually proven to be wrong, as new jobs in the U.S. reached 254,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate has decreased

The core CPI released later showed an increase to 3.3%, marking the first official rebound in core CPI inflation since March 2023, while the overall consumer price index #cpi inflation data and producer price index #PPI data both exceeded expectations

With rising inflation and declining unemployment, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in the remaining time this year is very low. For example, the market currently believes that there is a 33% chance of at least one meeting this year without a rate cut

However, November is an extremely important month for the market, with election results, Federal Reserve meetings, and critical labor market and inflation data

If labor market and inflation data become too hot, the Federal Reserve's situation will be dire, and weak employment data combined with soaring inflation will only exacerbate the situation

Stagflation refers to an economy where unemployment rises and inflation rises, as occurred in the 1970s, causing significant damage to the economy. The Federal Reserve's primary goal for 2025 is to avoid stagflation, gradually lowering interest rates rather than directly cutting rates by 50 basis points

10. Following the previous point, the volatility in the commodity and bond markets will only increase. This volatility is expected to extend to U.S. stocks soon. Goldman Sachs predicts an annualized return rate of 3% for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years, but after considering inflation factors, the annual return rate for the S&P 500 could be as low as 1%

11. The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the United States while lowering growth forecasts for China and Germany. Although there is less text and more content, according to Bloomberg data, capital inflows into the Qing Dynasty increased in September (Figure 2)

12. Global stock markets triggered sell signals. U.S. bank strategist Michael Hartnett stated that cash levels in global investors' portfolios fell to 3.9% in October, triggering sell signals for stocks

However, U.S. executives are in a frenzy selling stocks, and the insider buying ratio has surged to the highest level since 2021. While they were busy last week constructing a hopeful blueprint, they were also selling stocks (Figure 3)

13. Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ) stated: he has no fixed-income exposure; all roads lead to inflation, and he will go long on gold and Bitcoin #BTC☀ however, Bitcoin has a long way to go (Figure 4)

14. Bitcoin on-chain indicators: Bitcoin $BTC's circulating supply profit ratio has reached 96.6%, indicating that a major portion of the supply is profitable. The current resistance range is 65K-69K, with about 1.6 million BTC held, exceeding this range in the spot market would likely face no resistance (perhaps with slight pullbacks)

Combining the #MVRV indicator, from the profit saturation state in March to today, the average potential profit is 100%, which is temporarily insufficient to lead to mass profit-taking. Selling pressure may appear, but this does not constitute a significant risk

SOPR shows profit-taking, some savvy investors have secured profits, and it is expected that the #SOPR trend will completely reset in 2024, with a bullish saturation in March, balance in summer, and a new round of expansion already beginning in autumn