Crypto Market Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Weekly Outlook
Greetings from a beautiful weekly opening. After a rather low-volatility, boring week, it's refreshing to start with such a green candle. Hopefully, this trend will continue. To review last week's expectations and possibilities, you can check out my article at this link.
Bitcoin
BTC, which made a new low this week, once again didn't close below the 69k support on a daily basis. After declining until mid-week, it started to rise and closed the week very close to its opening price. Following the weekly opening, it rose by 2.2% and is currently moving at a price of 64k.
This week, I think we might see a movement towards the 60-61k region, followed by a continuation of the rise. I'm expecting a movement towards the 70k region, but in case of a significant increase in tensions in the Middle East and Asia, we might also see a sharp decline. However, I don't consider this scenario very likely. Our implied volatility range for this week is between 56k-70k.
We might compensate for last week's very low volatility with a slightly higher one this week. For October 18, the highest number of call contracts is at the 64k level, while the highest number of put contracts is at 57k. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.69. The market is looking more bullish this week compared to last week. Our expectation for this week could be a slight pullback followed by an increase. Trump's lead might also be reflected in the prices. The Funding Rate continues to increase as well.
Ethereum
This week, we had an ETH that looked stronger compared to BTC. However, it's still progressing below the monthly opening. Ethereum, which didn't make a new low, also closed the week above its weekly opening. After the weekly opening, it rose by 2.5% and is currently moving at a price of 2530.
The market has a more bullish impression on ETH, which we can also see from the fear index. We'll also look at the status of ETHBTC, but even though it's still accumulating, BTC might be a bit stronger this week. My priority for an increase will be on the BTC side, but it's important not to neglect the ETH position. Our implied volatility range for this week is between 2150-2750.
For October 18 contracts, there's a very dense call contract at 2800, while there are some put contracts at 2200. With a Put/Call Ratio of 0.5, the market's expectation is for ETH to be more positive. I don't want to see ETH priced below 2400 much. Perhaps while BTC makes a slight correction, ETH might be stronger.
On the ETHBTC side, I'm hopeful as long as the price doesn't stay below 0.0384. Closings below this would make me consider closing my bullish ETH positions. It might test the downside again to make a new low, but if a decline doesn't come, there's also a possibility that the rise could be sharper. Since it's still in the same place, there's no need to elaborate further.
I hope this week passes more actively. As the November elections approach, implied volatility in contracts may increase, which could also increase pricing. Try not to delay too much if you're thinking of buying contracts.
#BTCUptober #OptionsTrading #BTCUpdate #USRateCutExpected #BTCPredictedNewATH
