Considering the quarterly candle of $BTC , we observe that Bitcoin remains in a long-term macro uptrend. I believe this growth process is “healthy,” as after each growth period, there is a phase of re-accumulation and market rebalancing. If the price doesn’t grow too quickly, it can continue to rise higher and more sustainably.
Contrary to the boredom and skepticism in the market, Bitcoin’s price action over the past two years demonstrates “maturity” and opens the potential for a shift in the growth cycle, in a more positive direction. While it may be too early to claim we are in a “supercycle,” history has shown that no one knows they are in a supercycle while it’s happening.
To further support the macro growth argument for Bitcoin, data on the Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors is rising again, since Bitcoin reached an all-time high in March 2024. This suggests that a re-accumulation phase is underway after Bitcoin’s ATH; the supply with profit has been well-absorbed and redistributed since the beginning of 2024. This process has kept Bitcoin’s price stable, mostly hovering above $60,000, marking the longest period of activity at its highest price level in Bitcoin’s history.
Furthermore, the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs at the beginning of 2024 can be viewed as a significant catalyst, laying the foundation for the ATH that occurred in March 2024. When considering the average purchase price of leading Bitcoin Spot ETF funds, the cost basis is between $56,000 and $60,000. Notably, during this period, the market absorbed supply well, and the price recovered significantly whenever Bitcoin corrected to this range. This strengthens the argument that the cost basis of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs has established a strong macro support zone around the $60,000 level.
Thus, the market’s pessimism and skepticism likely stem from the decline of altcoins and disappointment with $ETH ’s price performance. But these factors do not tell the whole story; Bitcoin remains the king coin and leads the market. Until Bitcoin continues its bull run, it’s hard to expect a breakout for altcoins or Ethereum. To me, however, the underperformance of altcoins and Ethereum is currently presenting a good accumulation opportunity. Consider this carefully, as if I am not mistaken, the window for accumulation may not be open for much longer.