Many investors are asking: “Where’s the altseason? $BTC is flying, but altcoins are dead quiet!” The answer lies in market cycles — and more specifically, Bitcoin Dominance.
Let’s break it down based on historical patterns and what’s unfolding now.
1. Altcoin season only begins when Bitcoin Dominance breaks down after a long uptrend
Looking back at the two most recent market cycles (2017–2021 and 2022–2025), we notice a repeating pattern:
📊 BTC Dominance tends to climb steadily for about 1,000 days before sharply reversing — and that’s usually when the real altseason begins.
In the last cycle, BTC dominance dropped hard right after Bitcoin hit its peak in late 2021.
Right now, BTC Dominance has already risen for exactly 1,066 days — matching the previous cycle almost perfectly.
The turning point might be closer than we think.
2. Altseason tends to happen at the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle
Altcoins don’t run first. They run last — as the final wave of the entire market.
Early bull runs: Bitcoin dominates capital flow.
Late-stage runs: BTC slows → capital rotates into altcoins → altseason explodes.
⏳ If you’ve been patient with Bitcoin, you’ll need double the patience with altcoins.
3. Altcoins are in a deep accumulation phase
The current altcoin market feels boring. But beneath the surface, things are coiling. Many altcoins are quietly consolidating at low valuations — especially low-cap gems. This phase often precedes explosive growth.
Just because they’re quiet doesn’t mean they’re weak.
4. My Personal Outlook
📌 Based on cycles, dominance structure, and macro liquidity trends, I believe:
A true altcoin season will likely kick off in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, coinciding with:
The Fed’s first interest rate cuts
Clear signs of economic slowdown in the U.S.
Inflation trending back to 2%
Risk-on sentiment returning across global markets
Final Thoughts
Altseason is the reward for those who wait. If you’ve made it this far with conviction, don’t give up before the rotation begins. But remember one golden rule:
Take profits while you’re smiling. Altcoins don’t forgive greed.