I was about to go to sleep, but the war broke out.
On September 27, 2024, Israel launched a series of air strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, killing Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah. This move ignited the anger of Arab countries in the Middle East, and Iran immediately prepared to declare war. Finally, it opened fire on Israel at around 1 a.m. on October 2. This war was extraordinary, including the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, Iraqi militias and other places opened fire, and the US military base in Iraq was also bombarded! Bitcoin and US stocks fell instantly, and panic spread, which was difficult to stop for a while!
On the surface, Israel's recent assassination of the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah was the trigger. In fact, the Middle East issue has a long history!
Two months ago, Israel also carried out multiple assassinations of Hamas leaders, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an airstrike on July 31, 2024. At that time, Haniyeh was in Iran to attend the Iranian Presidential Trust Ceremony.
A brief review of the Middle East War:
The first Middle East War took place from 1948 to 1949. After Israel declared its independence, a coalition of Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Palestinian Arab armed forces immediately declared war on Israel. Israel eventually won and drew a ceasefire line (the "Green Line"), which was gradually recognized by the international community and even the Arab world.
The Second Middle East War took place from 1956 to 1957, when Britain, France and Israel jointly invaded Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Subsequently, the British, French and Israeli troops withdrew under Egypt's counterattack and international public pressure.
The third Middle East war took place in 1967, when Israel launched a surprise attack on Egypt, Syria and Jordan, and occupied large tracts of territory in just six days, including the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
The Fourth Middle East War occurred in 1973, when Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel. The Egyptian-Syrian alliance had the upper hand in the early stages of the war, but Israel later turned the tide. The war had a profound impact on the Middle East peace process.
The Fifth Middle East War occurred in 1982, when Israel invaded Lebanon, occupied a quarter of Lebanon's territory, and captured most of the bases of the Palestine Liberation Organization.
This is a historical event, so just know about it briefly.
Iran has always been ruthless. Before the war, some people called Iran a sissy, but how could they not start a war? After the shooting, the United States also planned to increase its troops! The sixth Middle East war has begun.
OK, now that we have sorted out the basics, everyone knows a thing or two. Let's talk about the financial impact after the war.
Gold is a safe-haven commodity, so it will naturally rise when it opens. The market has already come out. Crude oil has also risen. Bitcoin and US stocks have both fallen.
Let's review the wars initiated by the United States in history, such as the Afghanistan War and the Vietnam War. During this period, the U.S. stock market rose. The principle is that external political instability and regional conflicts give the United States a security advantage, which leads to capital inflows into the United States. Then the U.S. stock market is still attractive, so everyone understands why the Federal Reserve is not worried about the sudden 50 basis point rate cut. Because external wars still exist, the Middle East is getting bigger, and there is no end in sight for Russia and Ukraine.
But when the war started, the safe-haven nature of funds, based on panic and uncertainty, would first flow into gold. Later, as the situation gradually became clear, everyone got used to it. For example, the Russian-Ukrainian war lasted for three years, and now everyone seems to have forgotten it.
Let's talk about Bitcoin. In fact, the K-line trend of Bitcoin has indeed reached a local top. I wanted to write about this in an article yesterday. But it was the first day of the National Day, and no one read it. So I put it on hold. But last night, I saw that the market was not good, so I reminded the students in the group and sent a private message to some students to reduce their positions, because I was really worried about the decline. In the end, it still fell.
After all, we have to remind the people who follow us, otherwise people outside will not believe it even if they see it.
Why do we judge that Bitcoin is going to fall? At the end of the month, we pointed out that the Bitcoin CME gap was around 53,000-54,000. This gap has not been filled yet, so the demand for filling is still there. Of course, we made a warning before the Fed cut interest rates.
Historical article: Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance level! The fun is about to begin!
At the beginning of September, I also gave an opinion historical article: Will Bitcoin reach 40,000 US dollars or 70,000 US dollars?
But when will it fall? When the daily and two-day lines reach the top and start to fall, generally speaking, a relatively large decline will begin. This indicator has been very volatile in the past six months.
So the first falling target of Bitcoin is around 53,000, but will it stop at that time? Not necessarily? At present, we should first reduce our positions and wait and see.
So what about the A-shares that are currently on fire? In the past, no matter where the war broke out, A-shares paid the bill. This time, the market was closed for the National Day, so we escaped a disaster, and the cryptocurrency circle paid the bill. Although A-shares have risen for 5 trading days, there is a certain selling pressure. But we know that just before the National Day, we launched the Dongfeng intercontinental missile, and Qian Xuesen's ballistics shocked the world. So this deterrent still protects our investors. The opening rise after the holiday may take a break, but the subsequent impact is not significant.
(This is just a sharing of opinions, not investment advice)
