中东战争

BTC bloodbath before production cut, countless contract parties returned to zero in their sleep. How long will it fall? Will this be the last chance to enter the future bull market?

The bloody scene of March 12, 2020 has never been forgotten. On April 13, 2024, nearly 300,000 people returned to zero in their sleep. An investor lamented on social media: "Money evaporates faster than water." In the early morning of April 13, the virtual currency market was bloodbathed again. Among them, the price of Bitcoin once plunged by more than $2,000, from $67,100 to below $65,000. The copycat was even more bloodbathed. Explosion... In the early morning of April 14, Bitcoin almost fell below the important mark of $60,000! It can be seen that the degree of the tragedy of leverage is clear! This month, a major event in the virtual currency market is about to happen-Bitcoin "halving", which has attracted much attention from investors because it will be directly related to the supply and demand relationship of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin "halving" event refers to the halving of the reward obtained after the output of a new block, which occurs approximately every four years. The specific time depends on the block generation speed of the Bitcoin network, which will reduce the supply of Bitcoin. The halving of block rewards means that it will take longer for all Bitcoins to enter the market.

As mentioned earlier, there are two things to pay attention to. One is the risk of Bitcoin's high sideways trading and the decline of the copycat. The other is the risk of a wash-out after the long-term digestion of the positive news before and after the production cut. Production cuts are a time point. After the production cuts, the decline in output will drive the rise of Bitcoin. This can be realized before or after the production cuts. However, judging from the trend of this bull market, before the production cuts, Bitcoin was pushed to a record high due to the support of ETFs and interest rate cut expectations. The sideways trading of the big cake and the decline of the copycat, coupled with the plunge last night, in addition to causing a large number of people to blow up their positions, those with full positions in the spot market will definitely have greater psychological pressure.

In the middle of the bull market, although everyone knows that there will be more explosions in the future, it is difficult to remain indifferent if the profit retreats to the level of last night. No matter when, we should invest within a reasonable range. If we exceed our ability, we will be scared to sell our stocks in the plunge last night. We should keep a reasonable position, and at the same time, reserve a part of this position to prevent such a sharp drop.With the reserved funds, you can do Bian mining, Ouyi financial management, and some large project pledge activities. Although the profit is not as high as buying coins, it is very safe and can prevent you from always filling your positions. Large funds always have to make the best configuration (big cake, ether, BN mining), and don't ignore the principal risk for short-term violence.

Finally, let's talk about the market in the next two months. Last year, it was expected that there would be a market in the first few months of the production cut. Now this process has been completed. In the future, we should pay attention to two things: interest rate cuts and US stock dynamics. After the interest rate cut, will the American money flow to the US stock market? Some people thought it would, but I think the possibility is small. First of all, as long as the interest rate is cut, the depreciation of the US dollar is almost a foregone conclusion. Secondly, the high position of the US stock market itself has certain risks. The money left in the bank by the Americans at a 5-point interest rate will not risk going to the US stock market again. So either go to gold, go to Japan, or go back to other countries. If the US stock market falls, it will be short-term bad for big cake, but it is only short-term. There is still an essential difference between stocks and blockchain. The Americans are free, and they will do everything they can to keep their money in the pool they can control. Gold is a way to go out, but it is too monotonous, and the US stock market is high. Personally, I think that after the ETF is passed, once the interest rate is cut, more people will come in. Some people will say, how can the big pie come in when it is so high? In addition to the big pie, there are many other small plates to choose from. Even if this round of SOL is promoted by the Americans, it has changed from a small pool to a large pool. ONDO also has the shadow of BlackRock behind it, and there are actually many more.

The opportunity is in the circle of the Americans. The previous SOL chain dog, the recent runes, and the new inscriptions were all hyped by them first. The future bull market needs to pay more attention to this circle. In addition, the price of the big pie is too high. In fact, the big pie is always high for retail investors, but it is never high for the dog dealers (a small group). The big guys who control 70% of the global pie should not be too difficult to hype the small part of the pie outside to 200,000. It's just that this process should be a bit tortuous. Here is a predicted timeline: The interest rate cut is expected to take place in September at the latest. Two or three months before the rate cut, we will see a relatively low position that will last for a period of time, giving ETFs time to enter the market again.This time, it may be the last opportunity to enter the future bull market. I think the bull market will not start later than the end of June. Therefore, control the position and rhythm when buying the bottom. Buying the bottom is not done in one go, but should be done over a period of time. No one can absolutely predict the lowest point of this callback in the short term.

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