1/ Yesterday was a wonderful day. Fortunately, you and I survived. Now let's take a good look at the current market.

The reason for the plunge is that the yen interest rate increased, the US dollar interest rate decreased, the carry rate disappeared, and the risk assets were sold off in large quantities, which led to the circuit breakers of many national stock markets. In addition, the increase in non-farm unemployment triggered the Sahm rule. The geopolitical crisis has not dissipated. Mr. Buffett also sold half of his Apple warehouse with cash in his hands, waiting for the collapse...

2/ This really fulfills the saying that it is a perfect storm on the emotional side, and all macro events are exacerbating panic.

Is the market overreacting? Today, it seems that it is. The Japanese and Korean stock markets have rebounded sharply. The government has stated that it has sufficient policy capabilities and will take measures in the event of excessive market fluctuations.

Even when the market began to hype recession concerns last week, I was not too worried. At present, it is just a trading recession and not a real recession.

3/ The July employment report has temporary layoffs and hurricanes. The agency expects the unemployment rate to return to 4.1% next month.

At the same time, the creator of the Sahm rule also said that the indicator is only heading towards a recession, but the United States has not yet experienced a recession.

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI released yesterday also seems to indicate that the US service industry is still growing, and the service industry accounts for 70% of GDP.

So I still maintain my judgment that the US economy will not be too good this year, but it will not be too bad either.