What did the Fed say last night? Let me summarize:

🔶 Interest rate/monetary policy:

🔸The Fed maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%;

🔸Powell said that a rate cut in September "may be under consideration", and the consensus of the committee is gradually approaching a rate cut, and the policy rate will be lowered as early as September;

🔸If the economy remains stable, interest rates will be maintained as needed;

🔸Premature rate cuts may reverse the improvement of inflation, and the Fed is gradually approaching the time to lower interest rates!

🔸Imaginable scenarios range from zero rate cuts to several rate cuts this year;

🔸There was indeed an in-depth discussion on rate cuts at this meeting, but a 50 basis point rate cut is not being considered now.

🔶Inflation:

🔸The Fed statement showed that in the past few months, "some" new progress has been made towards the 2% inflation target;

🔸Reiterated that interest rates will not be cut until there is greater confidence in inflation;

🔸Powell said that the inflation level is still slightly higher than the 2% target and is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target;

🔸Substantial progress has been made on the inflation issue and there is full confidence in achieving the 2% target, but the inflation problem has not yet been resolved and the restrictions on the policy interest rate can be gradually relaxed.

🔶US economy:

🔸The Fed statement showed that job growth "has become moderate" and the unemployment rate "has risen, but remains low";

🔸The economy continues to expand at a "solid" pace;

🔸Powell said that the labor market has become more balanced, the unemployment rate remains low, and recent indicators show that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace;

🔸If the labor market is unexpectedly weak, be prepared to take countermeasures. Today's employment cost index (ECI) data is slightly lower than expected. The downside risks facing the current employment task are real, but the data does not show signs of economic weakness or overheating. The possibility of a hard landing of the economy is "very low".

The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market!

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