Is it a reversal or a trap? ?
Has the darkness passed and the dawn arrived! ? ?
Combining the recent data and trends, combined with the latest news:
1. Alternative data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rebounded to 52 today on July 15. Yesterday, the index was 33, in a state of fear. The market is currently in a neutral state.
2. CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 5.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 88.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.3%.
According to news on July 15, bond traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, rather than the standard 25 basis points. Marilyn Watson, head of global fundamental fixed income strategy at BlackRock, said the Fed may act early in July.
3. Polymarket predicts that Trump's chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election have risen to 70%, setting a new record high.
Meanwhile, Biden's chances of winning are 18%.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey posted on X that Trump still plans to speak at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.
The 2024 Bitcoin Conference will be held from July 25 to 27.
4. According to monitoring data, the German government address has sold all 50,179 BTC ($3.3 billion) in the past 24 days.
Based on the comprehensive data information, I personally feel that the cold winter may be about to pass, and the dawn has arrived. Even if there is a retracement, it will not be too large, of course, except for the black swan gray rhino event. If you hold on, you may be surprised, and of course there will be good returns! !