welinkbtc

#链上指标分析 $BTC

When the Supply in Profit falls below 50%, it means most coins are sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, this is commonly seen during the deep-clearing window of macro bear markets.

The percentage of Supply in Profit measures the share of circulating Bitcoins whose last on-chain moved price is below the current price.
It directly describes the overall on-chain cost-basis profit/loss structure of all BTC holdings:
The higher the ratio, the more crowded the profitable coins are;
The lower the ratio, the more widespread the loss coins and capitulation pressure become.

BTC: Supply in Profit percentage
Measures the proportion of circulating Bitcoins across the network that are currently in a book-profit state, helping identify deep-clearing phases, cycle recoveries, and periods where high-price profit-taking is crowded.

Current indicator details:
Network-wide coin profit/loss condition: Recovery zone
Currently, 51.13% of circulating supply is in profit,
7-day average: 54.24%,
30-day average: 55.44%.
The current value is 1.13 percentage points above the 50% clearing line.

Supply in Profit比<50%
Bottom deep-clearing zone: Most coins are in unrealized losses; watch for panic release
Supply in Profit比50–65%
Recovery zone: Gradual rebound from deep unrealized losses
Supply in Profit比65–95%
Normal profit zone: Most coins are profitable, but not yet in an extreme state
Supply in Profit比≥95%
Top overheating zone: Profitable coins are crowded; watch for distribution risk

Historical research reference values are approximately:
2015: 36%
2019: 39%
2022–23: 45%
Around this cycle, near $57.8K, about 46%.
These levels are used to compare the cycle structure.

A rebound from below 50% indicates that extreme unrealized losses are easing, but it cannot confirm the absolute bottom on its own. A more robust view should also consider spot demand, realized price, long-term holder behavior, and global liquidity.

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$BTC $BNB

#链上指标分析 $BTC

BTC：LTH spent price below the waterline
Compare Bitcoin’s current price with the long-term holder (LTH) realized average entry cost based on actual coins spent, and observe loss-driven selling, deep capitulation, and the price recovery window.

Current indicator details:
LTH spending status: deeply underwater
Current BTC: $62,706,
LTH spent price: $76,434,
Current price is $13,727 below the spent cost,
Ratio: 0.8204.
The most recent underwater phase has lasted 83 days.

As the current price stays below the LTH spent price,
this means long-term holders are transferring coins at prices lower than their entry cost.
LTH Spent Price is the weighted average purchase cost of the Bitcoin spent by long-term holders who have held for at least 155 days on that day.

LTH-SOPR ratio ≥ 1.08×
Above the cost line: long-term coins are spent in an overall profitable state.
LTH-SOPR ratio in the 1.00–1.08× range
Recovery test: price has just returned above the cost line—look for confirmation.
LTH-SOPR ratio in the 0.90–1.00× range
Underwater capitulation: long-term holders continue to spend while at a loss.
LTH-SOPR ratio < 0.90×
Deep underwater: the price is more than 10% below the spent cost.

Historical research windows show that
when the price breaks below the LTH spent cost and remains there for over a hundred days,
it commonly occurs near the end of macro bear markets:
~124 days in 2014,
~188 days in 2018,
~193 days in 2022;
and the 2026 research window records about 146 days near the $57.8k level.

Loss-making spending by long-term holders indicates that even strong hands are being forced to liquidate,
but it cannot confirm an absolute bottom by itself.
A more robust right-side signal is when the price moves back above the LTH spent price and improves in sync with spot demand, realized P/L, and global liquidity.

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$BTC $BNB

#链上指标分析 $BTC

Bitcoin Cycle—Five-Phase Method:
Halving → Bull Top: Observe the issuance shock;
Bear Bottom → Bull Top: Observe the full ramp-up;
Halving → Next Bear Bottom: Observe cycle clearing;
Bull Top → Bull Top and Bear Bottom → Bear Bottom: Observe the cross-week interval between the top and the bottom, respectively.

Use five groups of historical event anchors to compare the duration of Bitcoin cycles,
and include the next halving, bull top, and bear bottom projections on the future timeline.

Historical bear-bottom intervals are stable at 1431 to 1437 days.
The current 1434-day model points to October 2026.

The completed samples from a bear-market bottom to the next bear-market bottom are 1431 and 1437 days.
Currently, we use 1434 days as the research projection.

In the chart, the red line shows the starting point, the blue line shows the historical endpoint, and the cyan dashed line shows the current model window.

2015–2018 ·
2015-01-14 → 2018-12-15 spans 1431D Price $176 → $3,185
2018–2022 ·
2018-12-15 → 2022-11-21 spans 1437D Price $3,185 → $15,778
Current projection ·
2022-11-21 → 2026-10-25 spans 1434D Approaching model window · 95.0%

Next cycle projection:
👉 Next halving: 2028-04-13
(Protocol estimated node · 2028-04-13
87,617 blocks remaining until block height 1,050,000)
👉 Next bull-market top: 2029-09-29
Validation window · 2029-09-29 → 2029-10-21
Halving + 534 days; cross-validation: bull top + 1451 days
👉 Next bear-market bottom: 2030-08-24
Validation window · 2030-08-24 → 2030-09-28
Halving + 863 days; cross-validation: bear bottom + 1434 days

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$BTC $BNB

#链上指标分析 $BTC

BTC: The value realized from short-term to long-term (SLRV) realized HODL ratio (7-day moving average)
Compare the realized HODL swings from the past 24 hours versus 6 months to 1 year, identifying short-term speculation, long-term accumulation, and cycle extremes.

Current key data:
Short/long-term holder state: historically extremely low accumulation zone
The current 7-day average SLRV is 0.0236, and it has entered the below-0.05 historically extremely low zone.
Short-term speculative liquidity is clearly shrinking, and the chip structure is more oriented toward accumulation;
The 30-day average is 0.0249.

Indicator interpretation:
SLRV observes the relative strength of short-term flows versus long-term capital. Extremely low zones usually correspond to cooling speculation and holder accumulation.
SLRV = (24-hour realized HODL swing) ÷ (6-month to 1-year realized HODL swing), with the daily ratio smoothed by a 7-day moving average.
A higher ratio means recently moved coins are relatively more active;
A lower ratio means short-term liquidity has contracted, and older coins make up a larger structural weight.

SLRV < 0.05: historically extremely low zone
Speculation cools down—watch long-term accumulation
SLRV 0.05–1.0: normal range
Short/long-term flow structure is relatively balanced
SLRV 1.0–3.0: active warming
Short-term capital activity increases significantly
SLRV > 3.0: overheated distribution
Watch cycle highs and coin distribution

A historical low is not a buy-the-dip signal for just one day;
it is a structural window where market speculation “water” is continuously compressed.
If low SLRV is accompanied by a rebound in spot demand, realized-price support, and improved liquidity, then the long-term accumulation signal is more reliable.

2025-07-22 → 2025-08-22
SLRV 0.0234 after 32 days
2025-10-01 → 2025-11-18
SLRV 0.0295 after 48 days
2025-11-29 → 2026-01-08
SLRV 0.0301 after 37 days
2026-02-12 → 2026-08-11
SLRV 0.0196 180 days · in progress

A high SLRV indicates short-term capital relative to long-term coins is quickly becoming active; it is often used to watch speculation and distribution risk in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market.

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#链上指标分析 $BTC

VDD Bitcoin: The Destruction of Value-Day
An extremely low VDD indicates that old coins are almost not moving.
The market has entered a long accumulation phase dominated by long-term holders.

This metric compares the daily value-day destruction to the 365-day average in the past. It helps identify the dormancy-accumulation stage of long-term holders and the high-level distribution phase.

Current core data:
Long-term holder active status – Low VDD zone · Deep accumulation
Current VDD is 0.7338, below the 0.75 accumulation threshold;
7-day average 0.71, 30-day average 0.54.
Old-coin spending intensity is relatively low, and long-term holders show dormancy and heavy coin consolidation characteristics.

Indicator interpretation:
VDD Multiple divides the daily value-day destruction amount by its average over the past 365 days. Older, higher-value coins that move generate more value-day destruction, so this metric is used to observe whether long-term holders are in dormancy accumulation or concentrating spending and distributing.

VDD < 0.75: Deep accumulation
Small amounts of old coins move; long-term holders remain dormant
VDD in 0.75 – 2.90: Normal circulation
On-chain value-day destruction is close to the historical average
VDD > 2.90: High-level distribution
Large amounts of old coins move; watch for the risk near the cycle top

When VDD drops below 0.75, the spending intensity of long-held coins is significantly lower than the one-year average. Historically, this often appears in deep-accumulation or the coin-supply consolidation stages before a trend starts. Above 2.9 indicates abnormal activity from old coins, which is often used to monitor distribution pressure near the top of the cycle.

Prior low zone I 0.731
2025-03-08 → 2025-03-09 · 2D
Prior low zone II 0.648
2025-03-11 → 2025-04-15 · 36D
Current low zone 0.245
2025-12-23 → 2026-08-09 · 230D
Latest reading 0.7338
Low VDD zone · Deep accumulation

Low VDD reflects that holders are unwilling to sell, but it cannot confirm a price floor on its own. It should also be evaluated alongside spot demand, exchange flow, liquidity, and price structure; only if demand rebounds after low VDD does the accumulation signal carry more reference value.

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#链上指标分析 $BTC

STH / TMMP Death Cross has been activated
Current BTC is $63,759,
below the STH cost of $67,617;
STH is lower than TMMP by $9,863.
Over the past 14 days, the two lines’ average expanded by $21 per day.

STH and TMMP “Death Cross” reappears; historical-level bottom or confirmed within 157 days

STH Realized Price represents the average cost of the bitcoins that moved within the past 155 days, reflecting the profit/loss break-even boundary for recent entrants;
True Market Mean Price removes miner costs and long-dormant holdings to depict the true average market price of active investors.

When the STH cost line drops below TMMP,
recent investors generally feel pressured,
and the market typically enters the late stage of a deep washout.

It is not a standalone buy/sell signal; it’s better to confirm a bottom together with liquidity, miner pressure, and spot demand.

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$BTC Sharing a classic long-term macro on-chain indicator for Bitcoin:

STH-RP to TMMP Ratio
Short-term holder realized price vs. real market average price ratio

This indicator clearly reflects the tug-of-war between market short-term speculative heat and the fair value of the broader market.

Current core data:
-BTC current price vs. short-term cost:
Both figures are currently around 77.4K.
This means that short-term investors who entered the market in recent months are overall at the breakeven point.
-Ratio trend:
The current ratio is 0.8998, and both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are showing a downward trend.

On-chain data indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders is converging towards the real market average price,
indicating that the market is in a phase of de-leveraging and cleaning out weak hands.

Looking back at history, when this ratio spikes, it usually corresponds to a phase of market overheating;
and when it drops below the 0.75 red line (historical bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022), it signals the establishment of an absolute bear market bottom.

Currently, this ratio is around 0.9, a relatively neutral to low position,
and the trend is still heading downward.

This indicates that the market's blind optimism has been effectively suppressed,
and positions are going through a thorough turnover.

At the breakeven point where short-term holders are seeing no profits and even starting to feel anxious,
this often becomes a key window for choosing a direction.

Stay patient and watch for further crossovers of the cost line.

#链上数据 #welinkBTC $BTC

BTC is retesting a historic key indicator: the 200-week moving average.

Currently, BTC is around $65,000,
while the 200-week moving average is about $63,100—
the two are extremely close.

In past cycles:

2012 cycle
After a sharp rise, BTC pulled back, with the lowest area approaching the 200-week MA.
Then the price moved back above the moving average and kicked off the next uptrend.

2015 cycle
During the bear market bottom phase, BTC traded in a wide range around the 200-week MA for a long time.
When the price broke back above and stabilized over the moving average, the market entered a new accumulation phase.

2018 cycle
After BTC fell from the $20,000 peak, it ultimately formed the cycle bottom near the 200-week MA.
Then it began the rebound rally in 2019.

2022 cycle
Events such as LUNA and FTX caused BTC to plunge sharply, and the price once again tested the area around the 200-week MA.
Then the market moved into a recovery phase.

From a historical perspective
BTC has always looked for long-term support around the 200-week MA.
Therefore, many investors view the 200-week MA as a crucial lifeline for Bitcoin’s long-term trend.

However, it’s important to note that this market environment is not exactly the same as in prior cycles.
Historical bottoms are often accompanied by extreme fear and massive loss capitulation, while the current market has not shown a surrender signal of a similar magnitude.

So what’s happening now is more like:
A test of the long-term trend.
Repricing of capital.
A cycle adjustment at high levels.

Next, focus on two signals:
First, whether BTC can hold the 200-week moving average.
Second, after the price returns above the moving average, whether it can once again form upward momentum.

If the 200-week MA becomes support, BTC may see a new round of cycle repair.
If it breaks below and remains weak, a deeper pullback must be guarded against.

The 200-week MA is not a precise bottom-buying line,
but it has always been an important reference point for observing BTC’s long-term cycles.
The real key in the current market is not guessing the bottom,
but watching whether the long-term trend is still valid.

#welinkBTC
#链上指标分析
$BTC

The cost of mining one Bitcoin right now is about $76,000.

However, the current spot price of Bitcoin is about $65,000.

This means the profit margin for the average miner is -13%.

In every past period when the price was below the production cost for $BTC ,

it ultimately turned into a special accumulation zone,

rather than the beginning of a death spiral.

#welinkBTC $BTC

$BTC What should I do?

Bitcoin ETF fund flows reverse: On July 14, net inflows of $181 million, ending an 8-week streak of outflows

On July 14, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $181 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $139 million. Ethereum ETFs also saw a net inflow of $58.3 million, and all ten ETFs posted positive figures.

#IBM股价跌25%
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I hand-built a platform with Codex
It’ll be here with everyone soon
What feature are you most excited about?
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$BNB

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicators (Nine)

Bitcoin: Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio [Except > 7Y]
Current: 4.68 | Profit > Loss | Profit: 82.4% Loss: 17.6%

The Profit/Loss Supply Ratio measures the ratio of Bitcoin currently in profit compared to those in loss.

To accurately reflect the true state of an active market, this data excludes early Bitcoins dormant for over 7 years and employs a 7-day moving average (7D MA) for smoothing.

When the ratio dips below the critical value of 1.0 (entering the red zone on the chart), it indicates that the number of Bitcoins in loss exceeds those in profit across the network.

This suggests that market participants are experiencing maximum pain, historically marking the absolute bottom of generational bear markets.

Latest chart data provides the following insights:
Current Ratio (7-day Moving Average): 4.68
Short-term Trend: Bullish
Profit/Loss Distribution: 82.4% of supply is in profit, 17.6% is in loss
Mean Reference: 7-day average is 4.64, 30-day average is 4.17
Bitcoin Reference Price: Approximately $77,854
The current ratio stands at 4.68, well above the 1.0 bear market warning line. This indicates the market is in a highly profitable and healthy state overall, with the vast majority of positions in profit, characteristic of a normal bull market cycle without signs of bottom panic.

Historically, when this indicator falls below 1.0, it provides valuable strategic accumulation references:

2014 to 2015 Bear Market: This indicator remained below 1.0 for about 280 days before the market fully reversed, with Bitcoin soaring to $20,000 in 2017. Notably, from September 2014 to October 2015, there was a major bear market bottoming phase lasting 410 days.
2018 to 2019 Bear Market: This indicator lingered below 1.0 for about 160 days before kicking off a new wave of an epic bull market, reaching $69,000 in 2021.
2022 to 2023 Bear Market: This indicator oscillated below 1.0 for about 190 days, after which the market bottomed out and rebounded, surpassing $73,000 in 2024.

#welinkBTC $BTC

Hey bros,
Another top-tier project in the making!
Nava AI is likely to launch a token soon.
Hurry up and get on the whitelist!
Portal:
https://navalabs.ai/

Backers:
Polychain
Hack VC
FalconX
EigenLayer founder Sreeram Kannan is joining as an angel investor.

Team:
Co-founder @vyas_krishnan was the first employee at EigenLayer (former head of product).
Another co-founder @zkBri is the former VP of growth at Eigen Foundation.

Good news, we've got another project to jump into!
Bad news, it might just end up being a rug pull.

#welinkBTC $BTC

$BTC Bitcoin 24 On-Chain Cycle Indicator (Part IV)

BTC: Realized Profit to Realized Loss Ratio
BTC: Realized Profit to Realized Loss Ratio

Current Ratio: 0.87 | Below 1.0 (Bear Bottom Zone)
Current Ratio: 0.87 | Below 1.0 (Bear Bottom Zone)

BTC's realized profit-loss ratio has dropped below 1.0, could this signal the historical bear market bottom?

Market sentiment is currently low,
but the on-chain data is sending us key signals.
Today, we’ll break down an extremely important on-chain cycle indicator — BTC's realized profit-loss ratio.

Core Data Overview
Current Ratio: 0.87 (has fallen below the absolute critical point of 1.0)
Current Status: Bear Market Bottom Range
Short-Term Trend: 7-day moving average shows a slight uptick, but overall value is still deep in the bottom

The realized profit-loss ratio compares the total realized profits to total realized losses of Bitcoin that has been transferred on the entire network.

When this ratio is below 1, it means the total capital for stop-loss sell-offs on-chain has exceeded the total capital for profit-taking. This indicates that the market is in a typical capitulation phase, with retail investors and weak holders desperately cashing out their chips.

Historical Cycle Confirmation, according to the candlestick patterns,

This indicator breached the early warning line of 2.2 on January 3, 2026, and has since experienced 109 days of consolidation.

Looking at history,
whenever the profit-loss ratio drops from 2.2 down to 1.0,
it has accurately corresponded to the bottoms of previous bear markets:

2014 to 2015 Bear Market: Took 53 days to bottom
2018 to 2019 Bear Market: Took 64 days to bottom
2022 Bear Market: Took 218 days to bottom

In this cycle, the indicator has not only reached 1.0,
but has further dipped to 0.87, clearly indicating that we are in the bottom range.
Every time the market reaches a state of despair,
it often nurtures a new cycle of opportunities.
Current on-chain data suggests that
the most painful selling pressure phase may be nearing its end.
The darkest hour is always just before the dawn,
now is not the time for blind panic,
but perhaps a moment to reassess positions for long-term strategies.

#welinkBTC #链上指标 $BTC $BNB

The prediction market Polymarket attracted 122 million visits in Q1,
just from pure hype, surpassing most cryptocurrencies and trading platforms.

Such high traffic isn't just from speculative behavior,
but from people using the market to price real-world events in real-time.

Prediction markets are starting to play a role as an information layer,
and are no longer just a niche product.

When users reach such scale,
liquidity and narrative often follow suit.

#welinkBTC $BTC $BNB

Smart Money and Strong Signal Tracking

May 1, 2025 (Friday) | Data sourced from Nansen API

Smart Money Net Flow (7 days)
• BURNIE (SOL): +$179,900 | 19 smart wallets
• SCAM (SOL): -$48,700 | 14 smart wallets
• EIGEN (ETH): -$14,200 | 1 fund wallet
• WISH (SOL): +$7,500 | 7 smart wallets
• CHONKERS (SOL): +$5,700 | 2 smart wallets

Top Memecoin Flow (7 days)
• PENGU (SOL): +$848,100 | Market Cap: $630.2M | Volume: $972,500
• BURNIE (SOL): +$467,800 | Market Cap: $10.5M | Volume: $880,000
• SCAM (SOL): +$325,600 (buy side) | Market Cap: $709,000 | Volume: $821,700
• WOJAK (ETH): +$150,400 | Market Cap: $21.1M | Volume: $176,100
• GOBLIN (SOL): +$109,600 | Market Cap: $1.4M | Volume: $269,700

HL Positioning
🟢 BTC 50.73% long | Open Interest: $2.14B | Buying Pressure: +$985.5M
🔴 ETH 49.23% long | Open Interest: $1.12B | Selling Pressure: -$419.3M
🔴 SOL 49.34% long | Open Interest: $270.7M | Selling Pressure: -$74.6M
🔴 HYPE 49.93% long | Open Interest: $772.2M | Approaching equilibrium
🟢 ZEC 50.81% long | Open Interest: $10.47M | Weekly Gain: 39.7%

Smart Money remains selective,
Focusing on Memecoins on the Solana chain (PENGU, BURNIE),
While maintaining a net short bias on perpetuals for ETH, SOL, and HYPE.
Only BTC holds a significant long advantage,
Indicating a cautious risk appetite on a macro level.

📱Nansen Data Analysis:
https://app.nansen.ai/ref?qE5JIxOgV6o

#welinkBTC $BTC

Kimi (Dark Side of the Moon) is about to wrap up a new round of $2 billion funding, pushing its post-money valuation to over $20 billion.

This round is led by Meituan Longzhu, with participation from China Mobile, CPE (CITIC Industrial Fund), and others, with Longzhu alone dropping over $200 million.

In January and February of this year,
Kimi just completed 3 rounds of funding in quick succession, raising $500 million, $700 million, and $700 million respectively.

With this latest funding, Kimi has pulled in over $3.9 billion in less than six months, and its latest valuation has more than quadrupled compared to around $4.3 billion last November.

As of now, Kimi's total funding has surpassed 37.6 billion RMB, making it the startup with the highest cumulative funding among large model companies.

Including IPO fundraising, MiniMax has raised around 15 billion RMB, while Zhipu has approximately 13 billion RMB.

As of the market close on May 6, MiniMax's market cap is about 210 billion RMB, while Zhipu's is around 347 billion RMB.

Link
https://www.kimi.com/agent

#welinkBTC $AIGENSYN

Bottom fishing in a bear market: key assets and holding logic

$ZEC
Holding logic: Privacy sector is a must-have, driven by both regulation and AI, with clear long-term value
Core technologies: ZK·FHE·Quantum encryption·Privacy payments

It's a bit disappointing not to have positioned myself early on Naval's call,
but during this pullback, I gradually started to DCA.
The reasoning isn't complicated,
I chose ZEC simply because the privacy sector can't be disproven in Crypto,
it's essential for the AI productivity revolution and a necessity to meet regulatory demands.

In other words, even if the decentralized narrative gets disproven,
the strong demand for privacy sector solutions will always exist.

Right now, it's not so obvious with AI taking center stage,
but when the AI bubble hits a certain bottleneck,
or as large models compete for computational resources and we enter the latter half of the Agent application economy,
the demand for privacy (ZK, FHE, quantum encryption, etc.)
will undoubtedly become a critical scenario for Crypto to tap into the AI boom, no doubt about it;

In a world of interconnectedness, digital is king! For more latest updates, follow #welinkBTC

Focusing on Web3, blockchain gaming, AI, and AirDrop investment opportunities 🫙 Monitoring 100 crypto influencers across the net 🔥 Let's ride through the bull and bear market together with $BNB
$ZEC

Sector Rotation

DePIN sector tokens are on the rise, in the last 24 hours,

$IO up over 69%, currently at $0.1808;
$STORJ up over 30%, currently at $0.1311;
OVPP up over 22%, currently at $0.019;
Honey up 22%, currently at $0.00235;
$FIL up 13%, currently at $1.08.

#welinkBTC

BlackRock and JPMorgan are injecting stablecoin reserves into tokenized treasuries,
which clearly indicates the future direction of institutional demand.

Liquidity is becoming the decisive factor for tokenization,
while $ETH Ethereum has the deepest stablecoin and treasury infrastructure on-chain.
Once large balance sheets
start optimizing around settlement depth and collateral efficiency,
this network effect will be hard to beat.

$BTC
#welinkBTC