kalshi

#Polymarket vs #Kalshi
📉 Polymarket Loses Momentum While Kalshi Holds the Lead: What’s Happening in the Prediction Market?

The August lull following the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup hit #Polymarket trading volumes hard, while its main competitor #Kalshi barely registered a decline.

🔑 Key Facts and Figures:
➡️ Polymarket’s Downfall: In August, the platform’s total monthly trading volume (including Polymarket US) fell to $8.41 billion, down 35% from July ($12.89 billion). The biggest drop was on the main platform, where volumes fell from $7.89 billion to $4.59 billion.
➡️ Kalshi’s Resilience: Kalshi’s trading volume in August was $38.67 billion, down only ~4% from July ($40.1 billion). Kalshi currently handles almost 5 times more volume than Polymarket.
➡️ World Cup Factor: It was the football tournament that triggered the explosive growth of prediction markets in the summer (weekly volumes soared from $65 million to $5.6 billion). Currently, activity has dropped to ~$4 billion per week across the industry.

❓ Why do investors still believe in the project?
Despite the correction of trades and lawsuits (in particular, from the authorities of Baltimore and the New York prosecutor's office), investor interest remains high. Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital fund led an investment round of $1 billion, raising Polymarket's valuation to $21 billion (versus $15 billion at the beginning of the year).

‼️Polymarket's user base exceeds 3 million people, which makes the platform one of the most massive Web3 projects.

#CFTCSeeksDismissalOfCMEKalshiBTCFuturesSuit
CFTC to CME: Case Dismissed? ⚖️💰

Big exchange ⚔️ Big regulator.

CFTC just told the court to throw out CME's lawsuit over Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual futures.

CME's claim? "Unfair competition, this should be a swap, not a future."

CFTC's reply? "Much ado about nothing. You haven't been harmed — and you can list your own perps anytime."

At stake is who gets to own the future of crypto perps in America — Wall Street's giant CME or the disruptor Kalshi.

Regulation or rivalry? You decide.

#CFTCSeeksDismissalOfCMEKalshiBTCFuturesSuit #Bitcoin #BTCPerps #Kalshi $BTC

📰 DoubleZero Edge has connected Kalshi’s election and politics prediction market data, and the timing is very straightforward: as the November 3 U.S. midterm elections get closer, related trading volume is rising.

This integration isn’t the first category Kalshi has been introduced to. Previously, DoubleZero Edge had already covered sports event contracts and crypto perpetual futures; now it has added political market data into institutional workflows.

🔥 To be honest, what institutions care about may not be just “who will win” outcomes. Andy Ross, Head of Institutional Business at Kalshi, said that these data can help institutions monitor changes in market expectations in real time—using them to price risk, manage exposure, and adjust positions.

📊 Prediction markets have noticeably heated up since the 2024 election cycle. The valuations on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have already reached tens of billions of dollars; according to reports, as of mid-August, trading volume for U.S. election-related prediction markets had surpassed $133 million for some races—exceeding levels from the same period in 2024.

💡 This suggests prediction markets are shifting from regular users placing bets to becoming a channel for institutions to obtain political and economic information. Who would have thought election data would also start being treated as a reference tool within trading workflows—but whether that information can consistently translate into an advantage for decision-making depends on how institutions use it.

🤔 Do you think data from election prediction markets really helps institutions anticipate changes in the economy and markets?

#DoubleZero #Kalshi #预测市场 #中期选举

🛢️ Kalshi platform seeks U.S. approval for perpetual WTI crude oil futures

The Kalshi trading platform has filed for approval from U.S. regulators to launch perpetual futures contracts based on the prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. This move aims to expand the range of trading instruments available in commodity markets, which may affect how oil derivatives are traded.

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📊 Impact: 📊 Medium
🏷️ REGULATION

#Kalshi #Regulation #Commodities #Futures #Trading

📰 Source: cryptobriefing.com

Kalshi & DoubleZero: Political election data goes live

- Kalshi launches political election data on the DoubleZero trading platform
- Provides full wholesale access to political predictions for institutional and retail investors
- Runs ahead of U.S. midterm elections
#BinanceSquare #CryptoNews #Kalshi #DoubleZero #ElectionData

$btc $eth

vlikevn Titanbot

Source: CoinDesk

KALSHI JUST GOT A SPEED BOOST FOR THE MIDTERMS

DoubleZero has integrated Kalshi election market data into DoubleZero Edge, turning the election order book into realtime data for traders, bots, and AI.

It’s not just the old-style:
“Party X has a 63% chance to win.”

Now machines can read bids/asks, trade, and market depth—and react almost in realtime.

And the timing couldn’t be better: bets on the 2026 U.S. Congressional elections on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US have already surpassed $133M as of 10/8—higher than the $92.4M total for the entire 2024 election season.

My take: while humans are still debating on Twitter, bots may have already read the order book and completed the trades.

The debate hasn’t even finished yet, and AI: “Thanks for the alpha.”

Politics is becoming a 24/7 trading terminal.

When you think about the November midterms, how much faster will AI trade prediction markets than humans?

#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #AITrading

📰 Prediction markets may be moving into a slightly counterintuitive phase: platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi don’t necessarily have to keep standing directly in front of users. Instead, they may slowly move behind exchanges, brokers, wallets, news apps, and even AI agents.

In April this year, Binance integrated Predict.fun, letting users trade probability events directly inside the app. Two months later, it also opened the Prediction Markets API, so quant strategies, trading bots, and third-party products can call market data and trading capabilities. Coinbase has also added Prediction Markets to its Everything Exchange, with initial market liquidity provided by Kalshi.

🔥 Traditional finance is doing something similar as well. IBKR has already put Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx into a unified interface—users don’t need separate accounts to compare prices and liquidity across different markets. Robinhood, meanwhile, partnered with Susquehanna to route some World Cup and professional baseball Event Contracts to the associated exchanges.

Honestly, this suggests that prediction markets are shifting from “users going to a dedicated platform to trade” to “a capability provided incidentally by some product.” In the future, you might only see an event card beside the news, or tap a probability contract on an exchange homepage—possibly without realizing which market is actually behind it.

💡 This also leaves room for aggregators and smart execution tools. The same event might be spread across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict.fun, and other platforms, with different prices, depth, and liquidity. Fortune has already integrated Polymarket and Predict.fun, and is trying to put markets from different sources into a single entry point.

But whether prediction markets will fully mirror DeFi’s development path is still hard to say. The real question is that in the end, what people trade may not just be contracts on a single platform, but a Prediction Asset that can be found, compared, and combined across markets. Do you think prediction markets will become an independent destination—or will they ultimately be tucked away inside exchanges and wallets?

#预测市场 #Polymarket #Kalshi #Web3

🚀 Kalshi launches VVV perpetual contracts and lists the Venice AI token in regulated futures contracts

Kalshi, a platform specializing in prediction markets, announced the launch of VVV perpetual contracts, marking a step toward integrating the Venice AI token, tied to privacy-focused artificial intelligence, into U.S. regulated futures markets. This move could open up new opportunities for decentralized AI-powered projects.

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📊 Impact: 📈 High
🏷️ DEFI

#Kalshi #VeniceAI #Perpetuals #DeFi #Regulation

📰 Source: cryptobriefing.com

Regulated US crypto access grows

Kalshi is expanding its regulated crypto derivatives offerings for US traders by launching perpetual contracts for BNB, ADA, WLD, AAVE, and VVV.

#Kalshi #CryptoDerivatives ‎

North Carolina Republican House of Representatives candidate Laurie Buckhout was banned for three years by prediction market Kalshi for investing less than $1,000 in her own election campaign. This development, reported by Decrypt, highlights how prediction market restrictions aimed at politicians and conflict-of-interest checks are tightening. The importance of oversight mechanisms in political betting is once again in the spotlight. #Kalshi #Politika #Crypto

The U.S. federal government and the state of Michigan are at it again—Kalshi, a compliant prediction market platform, is caught in the middle, stuck between left and right. In plain terms, it’s a regulatory fight, while retail traders watch from the sidelines. In the short term, it probably won’t have much impact on the order book, but it adds another uncertain “landmine” to the sentiment.

Right now, the entire internet’s greed index has jumped to 65. The more chaotic it gets over there in the U.S., the more the main forces in the crypto market like to use the opportunity to wash the market, spike the prices, and shake out positions. If Kalshi were truly shut down, some compliant routes for withdrawals would tighten again—retail traders would get choked at the on/off ramps. The ones who’ll feel most uncomfortable are us.

In the meantime, don’t let your emotions take over and don’t go all-in. Set your stop-losses and hold your spot positions firmly so you don’t get worn down and forced out by a slow, bearish drift. If you’re holding contracts, reduce leverage to the lowest level—don’t let one pullback wipe out your principal.

Brothers and sisters, do you think this mess will affect the short-term market?
If you think there’s basically no impact, hit 1
If you think it will trigger panic, hit 2

#Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #Kalshi

NEW JERSEY DRAGS $KALSHI TO SUPREME COURT IN MASSIVE PREDICTION MARKET REGULATORY SHOWDOWN ⚖️ 🚨

State regulators are making their highest-stakes move yet against prediction market platforms. 🏛️ New Jersey is officially asking the Supreme Court to overturn federal preemption, demanding state gambling oversight across 50 separate jurisdictions.

This isn't just about single-state enforcement; a high court ruling will define whether CFTC federal registration shields binary event contracts or exposes them to fragmented state bans. ⚡ Institutional order flow and decentralized prediction liquidity sit directly in the splash zone of this jurisdictional war.

💡 As state authorities clash with federal regulators over market boundaries, this final ruling could reshape market infrastructure permanently. 💬 Do you think the Supreme Court will rule in favor of federal CFTC supremacy or hand power back to individual states? 👇

⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️

🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #Regulation #CFTC

⚡ ⚖️

🚨 Is the CFTC trying to kick CME out of this lawsuit once and for all?
Kalshi’s BTC perpetual futures may be reshaping the rules for crypto derivatives in the U.S.!

Group: 点击进入玖玖的粉丝群

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking to dismiss the lawsuit filed by CME against Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures.
On the surface, this is a legal dispute between two institutions.
But what really matters is:
👉 Who has the authority to decide how crypto derivatives should be handled in the U.S. market?

At the heart of this dispute is Kalshi’s launch of Bitcoin perpetual futures.
Perpetual futures have no traditional expiration date, and traders can hold positions for the long term.
In the past, these products mostly existed in overseas crypto markets.

Now they’re entering the U.S.’s regulated financial system, and that naturally raises a very practical question:
Should these be governed under traditional futures rules?
Or do we need new regulatory boundaries specifically for crypto assets?
That’s also why CME is challenging the relevant products.
And while the CFTC is now asking the court to dismiss CME’s lawsuit directly, that doesn’t mean the court has already determined that the CFTC is definitely right.

It’s more like the CFTC is telling the court:
Is it necessary for this dispute to move on to the next stage of substantive review?
If the court ultimately supports the CFTC’s procedural stance, Kalshi-related products could gain more room to move forward, and it would also strengthen the CFTC’s regulatory position in this type of crypto derivative.
But if CME succeeds in keeping the case going, the true regulatory boundary may be reopened for discussion.

That’s the part the market should really be paying attention to.
Because in the future, the U.S. crypto market may not be limited to spot ETFs, stablecoins, and Bitcoin itself.
A bigger incremental wave is likely to come from:
Futures, perpetual contracts, prediction markets, and various new financial derivatives.
Once these products start entering the mainstream U.S. financial system, the competition won’t just be for trading volume.
It will be for regulatory licenses, product definitions, and market access rights.

So I think what’s really worth watching in this lawsuit isn’t who wins or loses.
It’s how the U.S. is going to define “crypto derivatives.”

Click the avatar to join the Jiujiu chat group for daily strategies 🚀
#BTC #加密衍生品 #Kalshi

New Jersey has taken Kalshi to the U.S. Supreme Court—are we about to see the final showdown over the regulation of prediction markets?

The New Jersey attorney general and the state’s regulatory agency have formally filed a petition to review the case, asking the justices to rule on this question: can a prediction market platform registered with the CFTC bypass each state’s regulatory rules?

The parties’ grievances run deep. At least 20 states have filed civil lawsuits against Kalshi, accusing it of claiming to “legally offer sports contracts across all 50 states,” while refusing to comply with each state’s requirements for regulating such contracts. Kalshi, in turn, points to the Dodd-Frank Act, arguing that CFTC oversight takes priority over state law. Earlier this April, the appeals court ruled 2–1 in Kalshi’s favor. New Jersey disagreed and pressed its case all the way to the Supreme Court.

The outcome could have far-reaching consequences: if Kalshi wins, similar sports-event contracts outside CFTC-registered markets could be pushed back as illegal; if it loses, prediction markets will have to face “50 states, 50 sets of rules.” Kalshi’s response is: it’s impossible for us to be managed by 50 regulators separately.

On Polymarket, there’s already a market on whether the Supreme Court will take up the case. Will the justices bite? This is definitely a one to watch.

#预测市场 #Kalshi #监管 #cryptocurrency

A big瓜 is here! New Jersey directly took Kalshi to the U.S. Supreme Court 👊

It’s simple: With a CFTC federal license in hand, Kalshi dares to sell sports event contracts to residents of New Jersey—effectively bypassing state regulation and grabbing the gambling industry’s business directly. The state government can’t tolerate it anymore.

This case is practically a once-in-a-century trial for prediction markets:

👉 If Kalshi wins: the federal license crushes state authority; Polymarket(s) fully open the floodgates— the industry takes off immediately

👉 If the state government wins: states follow suit to crack down; the entire sports contract track gets cut down

In the short term, it looks like a negative sentiment catalyst, but prediction markets are currently a sweet spot in the eyes of capital. If it really gets dug into a pit, that could become a deployment opportunity. You can watch for a pullback in $POLY; it might be a chance to target $UMA

#预测市场 #Kalshi

Kalshi is set to expand its footprint again! According to Unchained, Andy Ross, the business head of the Kalshi organization, said the platform filed with regulators on Monday to list perpetual foreign exchange and interest rate contracts. However, as of Tuesday afternoon, they had not yet appeared in the CFTC’s public filing system.

Let’s recap Kalshi’s expansion pace: In May this year, it obtained the CFTC license to launch BTC perpetual contracts, then rolled out ETH and XRP perpetuals. In July, it doubled down with gold, silver, and platinum perpetuals. On August 18, it added the U.S. large-cap stock index and copper to its application. Now, with FX and interest rates layered on top, it basically covers most major asset classes.

Ross’s vision is clear—put stocks, commodities, crypto, fixed income, and interest rates into a single trading interface. The number of platform markets has surged from around 4,000 to roughly 10,000, and activity is spreading from a handful of popular underlying assets to more markets.

Can this fusion route—traditional derivatives plus crypto perpetuals—work out? Worth keeping an eye on.#Kalshi #加密货币

Original article: https://unchainedcrypto.com/kalshi-has-filed-for-perpetual-futures-on-currencies-and-interest-rates-andy-ross-says/

Kalshi permanently bans the first Republican politician for insider trading

• Kalshi, a prediction platform, has permanently banned politician George Santos.
• The platform also suspended Laurie Buckhout for three years for insider trading.
• The bans were issued after an investigation into the misuse of non-public information on event contracts.
#BinanceSquare #CryptoNews #Kalshi

$btc $eth

#vlikevn #Titanbot

Source: CoinTelegraph

🚨 US OPEN SIGNS EXCLUSIVE PREDICTION MARKET DEAL WITH $KALSHI LOCKING OUT RIVALS! ⚡

The institutional land-grab in prediction markets just hit prime-time television. Kalshi locking down exclusive venue and ESPN broadcast ad rights for the US Open is a major signal for the entire forecasting sector. 🦈 Smart money is aggressively carving out real-world monopolies while casual traders look the other way.

When top-tier sports entities begin walling off competition, market share and liquidity in forecasting rails concentrate rapidly. 💡 Keep a close eye on how this regulated momentum spills over into decentralized market order flow. 💬 Will on-chain prediction protocols defend their turf, or are regulated giants swallowing the narrative whole? 👇

⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️

🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #CryptoNews #Macro

⚡ 🎯