ETH outperforms BTC, but a trend reversal still lacks one piece of evidence
Conclusion first: In today’s data set, ETH is clearly stronger than BTC relative to BTC, but it looks more like relative strength over a 24-hour window, not enough to prove that the ETH/BTC pair has already completed a trend reversal.
【Price layer: the strength-vs-weakness gap has appeared】
Around 23:00 Beijing time today, ETH was at 1934.91 USDT, up 1.90% over 24 hours; BTC was at 64749.45 USDT, only up 0.05% over the same period. Based on the latest prices, ETH/BTC is about 0.02988. Looking only at the % changes, ETH is ahead of BTC by roughly 1.85 percentage points, suggesting that incremental capital or risk appetite leaned more toward ETH that day.
Intraday paths also offer clues. ETH rebounded from 1898.06 to 1934.91, still about 2.3% away from the high of 1981.24. Meanwhile BTC bounced from 64459.82 and then was about 1.5% away from the high of 65744.60. In other words, ETH has higher elasticity, but overhead selling pressure is also more pronounced. Strength doesn’t mean there’s no resistance.
【Trading layer: there is activity, but it can’t directly be equated with net inflows】
ETHUSDT’s 24-hour trading value is about 628 million USDT, while BTCUSDT is about 921 million USDT. ETH’s trading value is roughly 68% of BTC’s; together with the higher rise, this suggests the relative performance did not occur under extremely low activity. However, trading value records trade size only—it does not distinguish between aggressive buy orders and aggressive sell orders, and it cannot, by itself, prove that capital is consistently flowing into ETH.
【Event layer: fundamental information and short-term market action may overlap】
Tonight, CoinDesk reported that Lido is integrating about 8 million staked ETH tokens and plans to reduce the number of validators by roughly one-third, while also, for the first time, requiring professional node operators to provide collateral. This is an important adjustment involving staking infrastructure, but the existing information cannot prove it is the direct cause of ETH’s rise. Another explanation is that risk assets are broadly recovering: Cointelegraph mentioned in parallel that rising US stocks and expectations of eased geopolitical tensions pushed BTC to try to move closer to $66,000. If overall market risk appetite rebounds, ETH typically may exhibit higher elasticity.
Next, what’s truly worth monitoring isn’t whether ETH is rising faster on a single day, but whether ETH/BTC can continue to hold around 0.02988 and expand upward, and whether ETH can again approach and break above 1981.24. If the ratio quickly falls back, or if ETH loses 1898.06 while BTC remains stable, then this relative strength is more likely just a short-term rotation.
The above is based only on a single 24-hour snapshot and publicly available information, and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and short-term relative strength/weakness can reverse quickly. Before making decisions, you should consider longer-term cycles, liquidity, and your own risk tolerance.
Reference data:
- https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbols=%5B%22BTCUSDT%22%2C%22ETHUSDT%22%2C%22BNBUSDT%22%5D
- https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/lido-begins-moving-usd16-5-billion-in-staked-ether-to-cut-validator-count-by-a-third
$BTC $ETH #ETHBTC #以太坊 #比特币 #行情分析