worldcuplast16

The winning formula for the 2026 World Cup has been found, and it’s related to Japan.

I looked back at Japan’s last four tournaments in the group stage. In every one of them, it goes the same way: the team that defeats the team that eliminated Japan then goes on to win the title. Specifically:

- 2002: Turkey eliminated Japan; Brazil beat Turkey 1-0 in the semifinals, then won the championship.
- 2010: Paraguay eliminated Japan; Spain beat Paraguay 1-0 in the quarterfinals, then won the championship.
- 2018: Belgium eliminated Japan; France beat Belgium 1-0 in the semifinals, then won the championship.
- 2022: Croatia eliminated Japan; Argentina beat Croatia 3-0 in the semifinals, then won the championship. 4/4. It never missed.

This year, Japan lost to Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 32. According to the formula, the team that eliminates Brazil will be the champion. Early on July 6, Brazil will face Norway in the Round of 16.

This is just for fun, but it’s exactly like a trap I often run into when trading: a pattern hits 4 times in a row looks extremely convincing, yet with only 4 periods, the sample size means nothing for probability. Backtesting 4 times and going all-in will eventually make you pay. Football is cuter: getting it wrong is just less fun, not losing money.

Do you think this year’s formula is still relevant, and which team will eliminate Brazil?

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