treasuriesrising

5.01% on the day the Fed raised rates. And by October 7, already 5.28%

These are 10-year Treasuries. On Tuesday, under #fomcwatch, I promised to check whether anyone mentioned them in the minutes.

They did. “A few participants”—a handful—cited a stronger economy, expectations that more borrowing would happen because of AI, and geopolitics.

“Many,” meanwhile, wrote that financial conditions remain accommodative despite the rise in longer-term yields. In other words, many of them don’t see this rise as a cause for concern.

“Most” expect one more rate hike by the end of the year. The market sees it too, but not in October: the odds of a hike at the October 28 meeting are 18.4%, down from 37.9% a week ago. For December 9, the odds of a 4.00–4.25 range are already 69.9%.

Basically, the minutes read like “not now, in December.” I’ll keep the tag going right up to the decision. Follow along if you’re keeping track.

$BTC
I still don’t have it, and my BNB and stablecoins are still sitting in Simple Earn Flexible, just like before.

#ФРС #TreasuriesRising #Ставки

The "failed" 30-year auction everyone's panicking about? History says it's a setup, not a warning. 📉
Last week the US sold $25B in 30-year bonds at 5.216% — highest since 2001. Cue the usual chorus: debt's unsustainable, nobody's buying, yields going vertical.
Let's look past the headlines.
Bid-to-cover: 2.39 vs 2.43 average — softer, not broken. Foreign buyers: 66.8% vs 67% norm — basically unchanged. The only genuine dip was domestic demand (21.6% vs 22.5%), so dealers absorbed 11.6% instead of 10.6%. A soft auction — not a buyers' strike.
Now the pattern that actually matters 👇
Every time bond fear peaks, it tends to mark the bottom, not the beginning:
2011: S&P downgrades the US, everyone expects higher long rates → yields fell.Nov 2023: "worst auction in years" → long end rallied two days later.1994: the Great Bond Massacre, 10s hit 8%, ~$1T lost, Orange County bankrupt → back under 6% by end-1995.
Max pain kept being the top.
Why? The yield curve prices expectations for the economy — not the size of the debt or the volume of the headlines. And right now the labor market is cracking, inflation looks contained, and rate-cut expectations have shifted from three hikes to just one this year. That's textbook slowing-economy territory — where long duration wins. 🎯
Above 5% on the 30-year, you're locking in a real yield unseen in 15 years (that bond paid 2.5% a decade ago). If the Fed pivots, the long end performs. If inflation reheats, you sit on a 5%+ coupon and wait.
So here's the question: if yields are near a peak and start heading down, what happens to equities and crypto during that credit-market repricing?
#TreasuriesRising #Macro #BondMarkets #CryptoMacro #FederalReserve

🚨 $TLT.ETF Nears Historic Lows
TLT just closed near its 2nd-lowest level since the run-up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, as long-term Treasury yields surge to multi-year highs.
Rising fiscal debt concerns, persistent inflation, and Middle East-driven oil spikes are keeping pressure on long-duration bonds.
Bond markets flashing a warning most investors are ignoring. ⚠️
#TLT #Bonds #TreasuriesRising #BinanceSquare