sundayreads

🌍📉 Key Week: More Geopolitical Tension, Increased Volatility, and a Market Eyeing Gold and AI

Next week is packed with macro signals that could move the markets in a matter of hours.

🔥 Geopolitics Heating Up.

Reports indicate that the U.S. and Israel might resume strikes against Iran as early as this week. This adds immediate risk for gold maxis, who have already been pushing the metal as a safe haven.

🏦 Central Banks in Focus.

- G7 Meeting until May 19.
- Key speeches from Waller (Fed) and Paulson (FOMC 2026).
- On Thursday, the minutes from the last "Powell Era" meeting will be released, at a time when the market is starting to price in more rate hikes.

📊 Data That Could Move the Market.

- ADP Employment.
- Unemployment Claims.
- Housing (starts and permits).
- Philadelphia Manufacturing Index.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

All this in a context where consumer spending remains under inflationary pressure.

🧠📈 AI and Consumption: The Two Pillars of the U.S. Equity Market.

The week will also be crucial for the stock market:
- Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings, the epicenter of the AI rally.
- Walmart and other retailers release earnings, a thermometer for real consumer behavior.

Two narratives undoubtedly colliding, the AI boom vs. consumer fatigue.

#SundayReads 💎 #MacroData

If you are reading this, you will likely understand the following 5 rules.

We all need to cultivate our discernment, our ability to detect patterns in falsehood, manipulation, and deception. Once we achieve this, large and immense quantities dissipate like fog when the rays of the sun pass through it.

What are, then, the broader lessons of all this?

First, maintaining a general and critical skepticism is key, especially with content that constantly appears on social media.

Second, social media and alternative media have been quickly co-opted by the same interests that co-opted traditional media.

Third, deception can be very sophisticated and is crafted with as many layers as necessary to conceal the truth or manipulate public opinion. Still, it follows a certain logic, and that can be used to unmask it.

Fourth, identity and background often provide valuable clues about which claims are unreliable. Although general principles of argumentation usually advise us to avoid scrutinizing people and focus on their arguments, counterintelligence experts know that the opposite occurs.

Fifth and finally, sometimes all this deception brings with it an unexpected advantage: we can discover truths that would have been difficult to discern without manipulation, by observing what certain people are trying to divert us from.

The problem does not lie in falling into the proverbial rabbit hole, but in knowing when it is necessary and choosing the right hole. And, of course, avoiding unreliable guides.

#SundayReads 💎