spacexbipospxtrades

#spacex将公布q2财报
After tomorrow’s market close, SPCX will deliver its first performance report since going public. You tell me the stock price has already been cut in half—I believe you. You tell me it still has to fall—I believe you too. But the average target price from these Wall Street analysts is $236, which is more than double where it is right now. Either they’re all collectively blind, or we’re witnessing history!
Do you know why the shorts are willing to bet $24.6 billion against it?
Because SpaceX is a money-burning monster on both ends! On one side, Starlink is making money—Q2 revenue is expected to be $3.82 billion, with operating profit of $1.42 billion. On the other side, AI and Starship are crazily burning cash—Q2 capital expenditures are expected to be $14.05 billion, and AI alone accounts for $10.2 billion. Two-sided hedging, so poor they’ve only got dreams left.
Starlink’s user base has already surged to 10.3 million, but ARPU has fallen 25%. User growth has been achieved by lowering prices. As for Starship, it just completed its first successful post-IPO test flight—20 V3 satellites went up, landing with a splash of “an unprecedented gentleness.” The technology is definitely improving, but it’s still missing the last breath before commercial operations.
What’s most deadly is August 6th!
1.9115 billion shares of restricted stock are set to be released. Right now, the float is only 5%. When those 900 million shares hit the market, it’s like opening the floodgates. Even though the first tranche triggered by the earnings report will only release 20%, that’s still enough to leave the market reeling.
So—are you saying I should be bullish or bearish? I think at this level, don’t bet on a direction. If tomorrow’s earnings data is good, it may already be “good news priced in.” If the data is bad, it’s just adding insult to injury. This company is currently being tugged at from both sides—technology and capital. Institutions are shouting “buy,” shorts are hammering it down, and retail investors are cutting losses. I’ll just watch and wait until it gets through this wave of the unlocking flood.
If you have faith, you can hold on—but don’t mistake this for a “buy in with your eyes closed” opportunity. SpaceX’s story is so seductive, and the things that are most seductive are often the most dangerous.
#SpaceXBIPOSPXTrades

#SpaceX The Q2 earnings report is about to be released
Tomorrow after the close, SPCX will deliver its first earnings report since going public. The current share price has already been cut in half, and further downside remains possible. However, the average target price provided by Wall Street analysts is as high as $236—nearly double the current price. That could mean institutional investors are collectively misreading the situation, or we may be witnessing a particularly unusual stretch of history.

Bears are willing to bet $24.6 billion against SpaceX, and the core reason is that this is a “two-way burn” business: Starlink is already profitable. It’s projected to deliver Q2 revenue of $3.82 billion and operating profit of $1.42 billion. But Starship R&D and AI initiatives are疯狂 draining cash—quarterly capital expenditures are expected to reach $14.05 billion, including $10.2 billion devoted solely to AI projects. Profitability and massive investment offset each other.

Starlink user numbers have surpassed 10.3 million, but ARPU (revenue per user) has fallen by 25%. User growth is being sustained through price cuts. Starship, after completing its first successful flight following the IPO, has smoothly launched 20 V3 satellites. The technology is iterating steadily, but commercial rollout is still a long way off.

The biggest variable arrives on August 6: 911.5 million shares of restricted stock are about to be released. Currently, shares available to the public represent only 5% of the total share capital. Even if the earnings report triggers only the first tranche—still just 20% released—it would create substantial selling pressure on the stock price.

At this stage, I don’t lean strongly in either direction. A strong earnings beat may simply be “priced in” and lead to declines after the fact. If results miss expectations, it could make things worse. The company is being pulled in both directions—by technological idealism and the capital markets. Institutions are calling it up, bears are pressing short, and retail investors are wavering. I choose to stand by and wait until this round of lock-up release pressure settles before making a judgment.

With long-term conviction, you can choose to hold—but this is by no means a moment to buy blindly. SpaceX’s story is compelling. Stories that move people also often conceal risks.
#SpaceXBIPOSPXTrades

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