The old dog took a look at the perp order book for $NVDA , and in the last 24 hours, it’s up 1.349%, sitting around the price of 206.68. This volatility isn’t too crazy compared to the 3-digit range in the US stocks, but the kicker is the funding rate. With the funding rate at zero, neither side owes anything to the other. Open interest is still hovering at 121k, which hasn’t changed much compared to a couple of days ago, indicating that this small uptick seems more like the spot market being pushed up passively rather than a strong pull from the futures market. The old dog has seen too many situations where the funding rate suddenly goes to zero, usually after one side gets liquidated, and the market finds its footing again, making it easier to see a reversal at that point.
Two weeks back, NVDA’s funding rate was bouncing around 0.04%. During that time, the bulls were paying rent to the bears every day, yet the price was stagnant. Now that the rate is zero, buy orders are tentatively testing the waters, which is the underlying logic of the perp market: when the bulls are crowded, the position gets too heavy, and if even a few people start to run, it triggers a sell-off. On the flip side, when the funding rate is zero or even negative, the cost to pump is at its lowest. Right now, the bullish positions aren’t stacked up, and the liquidation risk primarily lies with those chasing the highs since the price has been hanging above 200 for a few days. If US stocks don’t bring in the right sentiment when they open, this batch of positions that rushed in could get wiped out by a single hourly candle.
The old dog believes this move isn’t about the story but rather a technical rebound. Other players in the Mag7 had already pumped last week, but NVDA, with its previous heavy bag holders, is a bit slow to react and is just now touching 206. I’m watching the order book depth on-chain for the perp trades, and there are dense sell orders around 210, clearly the previous bag holders waiting to break even. If we can’t break through this level with volume, I’m seriously considering cutting my spot position by a third and waiting to buy back at 198 for a better baseline. The part that goes against consensus is that while everyone is shouting NVDA has topped, the old dog actually thinks this isn’t a top but a zone for exchanging chips. The reason is simple: a real top always comes with a huge funding rate and new highs in open interest, and neither has appeared now, not even the retail FOMO is strong; so where’s the top?
At the end of the day, the old dog has been schooled by this stock more than once. Last time, I added more around 190, hit a false breakout, held for two days, and finally had to stop out, losing three points. This time, I’d rather make less and not hold any longs below 200. Keeping the leash tight is better than anything else.
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