#MicronFallsNearly14%InAMonth The double catalyst landed dovish data, hawkish Fed, and the market traded the data. June CPI came in cold: headline 3.5% y/y vs 3.8% expected and -0.4% m/m, the first negative monthly print since 2020, with core flat at 0% m/m, the smallest since January 2021. Consumer prices fell for the first time in six years. Warsh leaned against it in his first congressional testimony, calling the improvement not "mission accomplished" and vowing the five-year inflation surge "will be a thing of the past", so swaps still price ~40-50% odds of a July hike. Equities shrugged the hawkish tone and took the soft print, reversing Monday's slump.
The chip trade came roaring back, reversing the weekend crash. $NQ (29,868) V-shaped off Monday's 29,300 low as SK Hynix and Samsung recovered in Korea after the brutal post-listing selloff, dragging US memory peers up with them, Nasdaq 100 +1.1% on the day. $ES (7,601) reclaimed 7,600. IBM was the ugly exception, crashing over 20% on a revenue miss for its worst day on record, sinking the Dow red while the S&P and Nasdaq closed green.
Crude oil
$CL sits at $79.85 after Brent surged above $86 to a one-month high then pared, WTI around $80. The war premium is real on the Hormuz supply threat, but the pullback off the highs came after Trump dropped his demand for ships to pay a 20% transit fee.
$Gold ($4,058) still won't play haven, pinned near the lows as hawkish-Warsh dollar strength keeps the pressure on, same story all cycle.
TL;DR: cool CPI beats hawkish Fed, chips lead the bounce, oil elevated but capped. PPI Wednesday and Warsh day two are next, watch whether the soft-inflation read survives another hawkish lean.
$B $B2