globaleconomicnews

Fitch Ratings has lowered its global economic growth outlook while raising its oil price forecast, warning that the oil shock from the conflict between the US and Iran is causing widespread damage to the global economy.
Now the agency expects global economic growth to hit 2.4% this year, trimming the previous estimate by 0.2 percentage points. "Forecasts have been revised down across the board as inflation growth is squeezing real wages, stifling consumption, and ramping up costs for companies," says the report from Fitch economists.

Investments in artificial intelligence and rising industrial activity are fueling the U.S. stock market, whereas weak domestic demand is still putting pressure on the Chinese markets, according to a report from Yardeni Research.
The MSCI China index has mostly been trading sideways since 2010, while the MSCI U.S. index has skyrocketed about seven times during the same period.

European natural gas futures bounced back on Friday, breaking a six-day losing streak following the cancellation of significant US-Iran talks and escalating tensions in the Middle East, which stirred up the energy markets again.
The Dutch TTF gas futures contract, with the nearest delivery date — the benchmark for the Eurozone — surged by 3.4% to €41.9 per megawatt-hour, while its British counterpart jumped 3.8% to 100.38 pence per therm. This rebound is an attempt to recover losses after hitting nearly two-month lows recorded on Thursday.

The US Federal Reserve, after the meeting on June 16-17, unanimously decided to keep the interest rate steady at 3.5-3.75%. In their statement, the Federal Open Market Committee pointed to a confident uptick in economic activity, despite the uncertainty stemming from the Iranian crisis. However, they also reminded us of the heightened inflation tied to oil supply disruptions.

The British fintech startup Revolut, founded by Nikolay Storonsky, has received approval from the Central Bank of the UAE to operate in the country and is gearing up to launch its business in the Middle East, according to Bloomberg citing the company's statement.
The local regulator approved Revolut's application for licenses that allow it to provide retail payment services and fund storage services. Before fully launching the service in the UAE, the company plans to roll out its tech infrastructure and streamline operational processes.

Russia is shipping nearly record volumes of oil amidst ongoing attacks on refineries, pushing more barrels onto the global market even as production declines. This is reported by Bloomberg.
Average daily shipments over the 4 weeks leading up to June 14 reached 3.83 million barrels. This is the highest since December, unchanged compared to the previous week, according to tanker tracking data collected by Bloomberg. Since the start of the year, the average volume of 3.49 million barrels per day exceeds annual figures for every year since the onset of the special military operation in February 2022.

Commercial shipping through the Hormuz Strait, which previously accounted for about a quarter of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports, has been virtually paralyzed for over three months due to the US and Israel's war against Iran. This past Sunday, a preliminary agreement was announced between Washington and Tehran: the deal, set to be signed on Friday, June 19, in Switzerland, aims to open the strait for shipping without fees, lift the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and resume Iranian oil exports under partial sanctions relief.

The MEPs in the European Parliament gave the green light for the full rollout of the contentious customs agreement with the US. During the session in Strasbourg on Tuesday, June 16th, a significant majority of the euro-parliamentarians backed the removal of tariffs on industrial goods from the US and several other measures, including granting broader access to the European market for American seafood and agricultural products.

A record number of central banks are looking to boost their gold reserves in 2026, which is a clear sign that one of the key drivers behind the gold rally remains intact despite the recent correction. Bloomberg reports on this.
In a survey of 74 central banks, 45% indicated they plan to make purchases over the year. This is the highest percentage recorded since data collection by the World Gold Council (WGC) and YouGov Plc began in 2018. Only one central bank reported plans to cut back on reserves.

The Italian statistical agency ISTAT revised the consumer price data for May on Tuesday, showing that inflation came in slightly lower than initially reported. The harmonized EU consumer price index rose by 0.3% compared to April and increased by 3.2% year-on-year.

China announced on Saturday its 'strong dissatisfaction' with the US decision to add a number of major Chinese companies to the Pentagon's blacklist, which includes firms allegedly supporting the country's military capabilities, reports Reuters.
The updated blacklist includes some of the largest tech and industrial players in China, such as Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and NIO. Subsequently, the Pentagon also added solar panel manufacturers Trina Solar and JA Solar Technology.

What will the massive surplus of China turn into — currency reserves, traditional American assets, or bank deposits? Chinese companies are mainly funneling their funds into portfolio investments on the capital markets of Hong Kong, writes Miao Yanliang in a column for Project Syndicate. He’s the former chief economist of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and now serves as a senior managing director and chief strategist at China International Capital Corporation.

The Mexican stock market wrapped up Wednesday's trading with a drop, influenced by negative trends from industrial sectors, consumer goods and services, and mass consumer product manufacturers.
At the market close, the S&P/BMV IPC on the Mexican stock exchange dipped by 0.90%, hitting a monthly low.

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman raised a question in his blog this May: is Europe really lagging behind the US economically? He challenged this popular narrative, sparking an expert discussion on the topic. Dalia Marin, a professor of international economics at the Technical University of Munich's School of Management, participated in it. She shared her perspective in a piece for Project Syndicate.

Australia's trade surplus bounced back sharply in April, fueled by a rise in exports of iron ore, minerals, and coal, which offset a modest increase in imports driven by higher fuel purchases, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Thursday.

Gold futures took a dip during U.S. trading on Wednesday.
On COMEX, part of the New York Mercantile Exchange, August gold futures are trading at $4,474.70 per troy ounce, having dropped by 1.00% at the time of this comment.

Payment giants Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are close to launching a new platform for stablecoins, CoinDesk reports from three sources familiar with the companies' plans. One insider mentioned that crypto exchange Coinbase is also considering participation.
The details of the platform are still under wraps, and the companies have declined to comment. However, it's known that their interest in stablecoins has been growing for several years now.

The Reserve Bank of India stated that the report of them selling gold 'is not accurate,' pointing to data that shows their physical gold reserve has remained unchanged. This is reported by Bloomberg.
The latest digits in the monthly bulletin from the Reserve Bank of India show that the physical gold stash has held steady at 880.52 metric tons throughout April. The reserve has remained at this level 'as of the current date,' according to a statement from the central bank on Wednesday.

BP stocks surged on Wednesday after The Financial Times reported that the FTSE 100 energy group was in advanced talks to offload its assets in the UK North Sea to Ithaca Energy in a deal worth around £2 billion, which fell through in recent weeks. Meanwhile, BP is still exploring the possibility of selling and may strike a deal with other firms, according to sources familiar with the process.

Copper has continued to dip along with other industrial metals after the US launched new strikes in the Persian Gulf, amidst stalled negotiations to wrap up the war with Iran. This is reported by Bloomberg.
In recent weeks, base metals have been trading in a tight range: investors are keeping an eye on the talks to end the conflict, which has fueled inflation and worsened global economic growth prospects.