🔸 vitalik didn't take that bet. he was already holding it
liron shapira, september 6: "I claim (50% confidence) that BTC prices will crash 50%+ in the next 2 years because of AI undermining what people imagined were its security or robustness guarantees"
vitalik, september 7: takes the opposite side, says he'd offer a bet but he's already in it with ~90% of his net worth
a bet needs a counterparty and a settlement date. shapira has half of that, vitalik has neither
shapira's call at least resolves: under 40,000$ by 2028, from around 80,000$ now.
$BTC prints 79,360$ today, down 0.7% on the day, which tells you exactly nothing about 2028
vitalik's side can't resolve, because he never opened it. here is the sentence, brackets and all:
"I would offer a bet, but given what my holdings are I'm basically taking this bet (I assume you believe the same re ETH) with ~90% of my net worth already"
that ~90% is
$ETH at 2,488$, and he says himself he expects the doom thesis to cover it. in the world shapira describes, both sides of this wager lose together
his argument is better than his stake though. he splits it:
- client bugs and mining pool infra get patched without touching the rules
- a real SHA-256 break needs a hard fork and social consensus, and he calls those odds tiny
and that is why august 10 matters: ethereum's roadmap put quantum safety at the top of the list. tiny odds still get a roadmap slot. that is the difference between his answer and the doom podcast
two guys with no money on the line, and I read the thread twice)
#Bitcoin #Ethereum