coinkarma

GM☕️ Every day I play with meme dogs and realize I haven’t really taken a good look at the ₿ market trend in a long time.

Overall trend: Looking just at the past few months, there’s no doubt that the bottom of the bear market has already formed. After that, it should be a gradual sideways range and recovery. I’m not that bullish immediately, though—I feel the time window is too short. Things need to consolidate and stay choppy for a while to make sense.

On the daily chart: BTC has broken above the stage prior high around $82.4k. After a pullback, it bounced again, and the recent lows are also trending higher. The old resistance level has started turning into support—this structure is something I’m leaning bullish on.

On the 4H chart: In conjunction with Coinkarma’s Market Pulse Index (MPI), BTC is trading in a narrow range and consolidating, while this indicator has continued to fall. Comparing with the previous consolidation phase, and reasoning by analogy, it suggests near-term sell pressure may be gradually being digested. That gives an extra reference point for a moderately bullish view.

As for execution: I can’t really read the candlesticks too precisely, so my approach is pretty coarse. I plan to watch the area around $82.4k. If the daily holds, I won’t do anything for now (currently I’m only using about a 25% position size in the big BTC bag). If there’s an effective break down and it can’t reclaim on the retest—then I’ll reassess.

I have a pyramid of limit orders below the price to catch it. Going forward for a long while, I should mainly be holding long positions: I’ll add on dips, trim on rallies—and I won’t hold any short positions.

For managing the overall market, personally I still like staying hands-off a bit. After all, I need time to play with stuff on-chain 😜

#BTC #Coinkarma