I wrote about
$COIN at 22:00 on Thursday: until retail long accounts fall below 70% and open interest drops back under 130,000 contracts, the rebound from 137 to 140 isn't a floor. Over the weekend, the price chopped between 145 and 148, while retail long accounts stayed stuck around 72% to 73%—that account-based gauge barely moved. Spot plunged from 160.59 to 143.54 that same night on volume of 20.84 million shares, and the positions left behind by that selloff hadn't been fully cleared out over the weekend either.
The action leading up to the open is even more tangled. Futures touched 147.93 at 11:00, then plunged to 139.87 at 21:00; the current price is around 142.1. Over the past day, futures are down about 3.2%, with roughly $30.1 million in volume. Yet open interest has climbed from the weekend low of about 135,700 contracts to around 148,700 now, adding more than 13,000 contracts. Retail long accounts didn't ease from 73% to around 69% until after 19:00, while large traders' long positions remain near 76%. The price is falling as leverage builds—this looks like a flush, but the account structure doesn't add up.
No one was willing to cut long positions over the weekend. In the three hours before the open, new shorts and retail traders catching the falling knife piled in together, pushing open interest back up. The slight dip in the account ratio was just late-arriving capitulation; it doesn't offset the newly built positions. Funding at the 16:00 interval still settled at +0.037%, meaning longs are still paying shorts.
The one-hour RSI is around 32, the KDJ J-line is near 22, and the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 141.1. The 12-period moving average is still at 143.6, and the Keltner midline is around 144.4. Thursday's spot close was 143.54, with a low of 136.9; tonight, price has repeatedly probed the 142 area and the closing price, but hasn't regained a firm foothold.
I'm treating the area around 142 as a pullback after leverage increased before the open, not as a completed flush. The account gauge I wrote about Thursday was barely reached tonight, but the open-interest gauge is moving the other way—until it falls back below 135,000 contracts, the first rebound target is the 12-period moving average at 143.6; if 139.9 gives way, look back toward Thursday's spot low of 136.9. I'll stay on the sidelines around COIN's premarket and open.
#COIN #美股开盘 $COIN $MSTR