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Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be getting close to the bottom of this downturn, according to analysts at Compass Point.
They believe that while short-term risk is still slightly to the downside, the market is now entering the final phase of the bear cycle
However, they also noted that a much deeper drop would likely require a major risk-off event in U.S. equities.
$60K–$68K Seen as Strong Bottom Zone
Compass Point’s base case expects Bitcoin to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000, with the strongest support near $65,000.
This range matters because long-term holders have historically accumulated heavily here.
Analysts pointed out that around 7% of long-term holder supply was acquired in this zone, showing strong conviction from patient buyers in past cycles.
ETF Outflows Are Adding Pressure
Bitcoin recently broke below $81,000 and fell as low as $74,500 over the weekend.
Analysts said this area reflects the average cost basis for both ETF investors and the broader market.
Since January 15, Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly seen nearly $3 billion in net outflows, and with more than half of ETF assets now underwater, outflows could remain elevated.
They also warned that the $81K–$83K zone may now act as overhead resistance.
The $70K–$80K Zone Is an “Air Pocket”
Compass Point described the price range between $70,000 and $80,000 as an “air pocket,” meaning there is little structural support in that region.
Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired there, which could allow price to slide faster if selling pressure continues.
What If $60K Breaks?
If Bitcoin falls through the $60K–$68K support zone, analysts say the next major level could be around $55,000.
But they emphasized that this would likely require extreme conditions, similar to 2022 when an equity bear market and major crypto bankruptcies pushed BTC below its average cost basis.
Final Thoughts
Compass Point’s message is clear: the bear market may be entering its final innings, and the $60K–$68K range could be the key long-term floor.
Further downside is possible, but a major breakdown would likely need broader financial stress, especially in U.S. equities.
Stay cautious, watch support zones, and manage risk.
Not financial advice.
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Current gold options data suggests the market is not positioning for a strong breakout higher. Instead, traders are mainly pricing in the risk of a short-term upside spike driven by headlines or macro events.
Front-month implied volatility remains elevated around 70–77%, showing that participants are staying defensive ahead of potential event risk.
Out-of-the-money calls in the 4,900–5,100 zone are still richly priced, which signals continued demand for upside tail-risk protection. However, the upside skew is concentrated in the far tail rather than spread across the curve, suggesting this is more hedging activity than directional conviction.
In simple terms, the options market is buying protection against a sudden spike into the 4,900–5,100 range, not actively positioning to push price toward that level.
Key implications from the structure
The probability of a sharp upside spike is not high, but the impact would be significant if it occurs.
There is no clear evidence of aggressive selling pressure on pullbacks.
Sensitivity to macro, policy, and headline risk remains elevated.
Near-term risk tilts mildly to the upside, but within a broader range-bound framework.
Gold may see short-term upside spikes driven by event risk, but the options market is primarily pricing tail risk rather than confirming a sustained move toward the 4,900–5,100 zone. Overall, the structure continues to favor consolidation and range-bound price action.
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