600519

📌 The policy clearly indicates that it will stabilize the stock market situation to increase residents’ income. Tomorrow, A-shares should be steady. The state has formally finalized the 15th Five-Year Plan expansion plan for boosting consumption.

🍖 Chopper says:
The core of this news about the 15th Five-Year Plan consumption expansion is to let the stock market and real estate help residents increase their income, which directly benefits consumer-related stocks. For example, Kweichow Moutai (600519) has recently pulled back to around 1,500 yuan, about 15% down from the year’s high point. But if policy support kicks in, consumer confidence may rebound, and the liquor leader can still catch some of the upside.

However, it’s important to note that it takes time for policies to be implemented. In the short term, the market may first trade on sentiment, but that momentum may not last. In the same sector, Wuliangye (000858) typically has greater upside potential, but it’s also more volatile. Moutai tends to be more stable. If you already hold a consumer position, consider holding on and don’t rush to add. If you’re currently on the sidelines and want to chase, it’s better to wait for a pullback before entering—don’t see the news and rush in.

Risk warning: If subsequent economic data underperforms expectations, consumer stocks could fall due to disappointment that the policy may not be able to fully deliver what was promised. If your position size is heavy, be cautious.

#600519 #000858 #A股

📌 Breaking News: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's A-share total market value surpasses Kweichow Moutai

🍖 Chopper says:
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) today saw its A-share total market value break through 850 billion yuan, surpassing Moutai (600519). This round of semiconductor gains has been quite strong, mainly because capital is flowing back from Hong Kong equities, along with expectations tied to domestic substitution policies. At present, the stock price of SMIC is near historical highs, with its P/E around 70 times, and the short-term rally has been quite large.

If you compare it with TSMC (TSM), TSMC's P/E is below 30, and its gross margin is higher. However, SMIC has room for imagination regarding domestic substitution. That said, the valuation has already been priced in heavily. If market sentiment cools off, the pullback could be significant too.

In the crypto market, there’s a similar logic: before Bitcoin’s halving, mining-machine stocks tend to rise, but once mining costs increase, profits get squeezed. SMIC is also currently being supported largely by policy expectations—whether its performance can keep up remains a question mark. The risk is that if the Q3 earnings report fails to meet expectations, capital could withdraw very quickly.

#688981 #600519 #A股

📌 Foreign-funded institutions are speaking out in large numbers, expressing optimism about China’s stock market

🍖 Choba says:
I’ve been seeing several pieces of news where foreign institutions are saying they’re bullish on A-shares. It feels like the same script has been tweaked and published in a few different versions. But I’ve seen the phrase “speaking out in large numbers” plenty of times. Every time foreign institutions say they’re optimistic, the next day the market still falls—just like last Friday. I was watching $Kweichow Moutai(600519)$; foreign institutions promoted the liquor sector, but the stock price still dipped another leg.

This time, their reasons mainly boil down to low valuation and expectations for policy. But honestly, I haven’t seen any real money flowing in on the capital side—just talking doesn’t help much. The risk is that foreign institutions may also be adjusting their holdings while “calling out” at the same time. Don’t assume they’re here to do charity.

Compare it with $Tencent(00700)$. It’s also a heavily foreign-held stock, but liquidity in Hong Kong is worse. Paradoxically, the rebound strength there hasn’t been as strong as in A-share core assets. I think it’s better not to rush to chase the trend now—wait until trading volume expands before moving more safely.

#600519 #A股