11743

Monero reviews anonymous network relay rules | Proposal not yet released | XMR falls to 476; don't rush to buy the dip

My approach is to stick to position discipline: pay attention to privacy improvements, but don't treat unmerged code as bullish news. On November 13, PR #11743 appeared in Monero's official GitHub repository. The maintainers proposed handling transaction relaying over Tor and I2P paths uniformly: transactions on these networks are sent only over outbound connections and received only over inbound connections, then relayed to the public network after a random delay. The code notes that this process does not change based on the sender's fluff flag or whether the transaction was originally submitted by the local node. The page is currently marked Open, pending review, and needs backport, which means this is simply a change awaiting review—not something that all nodes have adopted. It is also different from an earlier PR concerning DNS leaks of hostnames on nodes using proxies; these should not be conflated with claims that the mainnet has been attacked or that a fix is already live.

Why should traders care about this? The core trust in privacy coins depends not only on hiding addresses on-chain, but also on how transactions are first propagated. If relay paths and timing exhibit distinguishable patterns depending on their source, observers may gain additional network-layer clues. Uniform inbound and outbound handling, along with random delays, is an attempt to reduce these differences. But the change still requires code review, network compatibility testing, and an official release; delay settings also affect propagation efficiency. You cannot conclude that privacy has improved simply from a PR title. As for price, development work is a longer-term quality signal, while near-term trading is still driven by liquidity, exchange support, and overall risk appetite.

The market is already pricing in risk. At the time of writing, publicly available Kraken data showed XMR/USD at around $475.73, with an intraday low of $475.56 and an opening price of $528.95—markedly weaker than the prices observed in previous rounds. This drop cannot be attributed to #11743, nor should an unimplemented code change be presented as the reason for the sell-off. Binance Square's trending topics currently focus mainly on the macro rebound, Bitcoin, and other projects, with no popular hashtag directly tied to this Monero PR, so I am discussing XMR on its own. In the short term, treat around 475 as the downside defense level. First watch to see whether 490 can be reclaimed, then 510; if 475 breaks and a rebound attempt fails, stay mostly in cash. If the PR is closed or testing reveals side effects, the technical narrative needs to be reassessed. Only if price reclaims 510 and holds there, and an official release verifies the change, would I consider revising my outlook upward.

If I were trading this myself: I would stay out for now. The only direction I would consider is a spot long on a rebound, with a position capped at 2% of total trading capital. The entry trigger would be XMR moving above $490 and holding there for two consecutive one-hour candles, followed by a retest that holds. The first target is $510, where I would sell half; the second target is $525, near which I would reduce the position further. The stop-loss would be below $474. If 475 breaks before entry, I would cancel the plan. After entry, if price falls back below 490 and fails to reclaim it for two consecutive hours, or if the official team confirms that the change creates new propagation risks, I would close the entire position. I would not use high leverage or present a plan that has not triggered as realized trading profit.

Sources: Monero official GitHub PR #11743 and code changes, publicly available Kraken market data, Binance Square trending topics. #XMR
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.