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Gold looks set to collect liquidation at $4100 before heading towards $5000. The bloody holiday will also be felt in the markets. This could be the last buying opportunity of the summer. $XAU
Nepreverjena vsebina
Unfortunately, silver failed to break through the $95 resistance level again this week. It doesn't seem likely to advance without taking the liquidation accumulated around $60. If it closes below the trend line this week, the holiday period will likely see a decline. In my opinion, this will be a buying opportunity. We will experience the final decline. $XAG
Xrp Long Squeeze'e Hazırlanıyor
Open Interest, Market Cap, NVT Ratio bu üç veri birlikte değerlendirildiğinde kısa vadede XRP’de yukarı yönlü baskının arttığı, ancak hareketin henüz tam sağlıklı olmadığı görülüyor.
Özellikle dikkat çeken nokta Open Interest tarafı. Open Interest son günlerde yeniden sert biçimde yükselmeye başlamış. Bu durum vadeli piyasada pozisyon birikiminin arttığını ve traderların yeniden agresif şekilde işlem açtığını gösteriyor. Normalde Open Interest yükselirken fiyat da destek alıyorsa piyasa yukarı hareket üretmeye daha yatkın olur. Ancak burada risk NVT Ratio'nun hâlâ çok yüksek ve düzensiz spike’lar üretmeye devam ediyor. NVT’nin yükselmesi, ağ değerinin zincir üzerindeki gerçek işlem aktivitesine göre pahalı kalmaya başladığını gösterir. Yani fiyat yükselse bile temel kullanım aynı hızda büyümüyor olabilir. Bu da yükselişlerin kısa süreli olmasına yol açar.
Market Cap tarafında ise güçlü bir çöküş yok. Market Cap'in yatay kalması, büyük yatırımcıların henüz agresif yatırım yapmadığını düşündürüyor. Bu da aşağı yönlü sert bir çöküş ihtimalini kısa vadede azaltıyor.
Kısa vadede yön biraz daha yukarı eğilimli görünüyor. Open Interest artışı fiyatı yukarı taşımaya çalışıyor. Ancak NVT aşırı yüksek olduğu için yükselişler sağlıksız ve sert volatil olabilir. Bu nedenle senaryo daha çok önce yukarı sıkıştırma, sonra sert düzeltme riski şeklinde duruyor.
Özellikle Open Interest yükselmeye devam ederken fiyat yeni zirve üretemezse, bu durum long squeeze riskini artırır ve #XRP ’de ani aşağı fitiller görülebilir. Buna karşılık fiyat OI artışıyla birlikte dirençleri kırarsa kısa süreli güçlü bir momentum oluşabilir.
$XRP
Open Interest, Market Cap, NVT Ratio bu üç veri birlikte değerlendirildiğinde kısa vadede XRP’de yukarı yönlü baskının arttığı, ancak hareketin henüz tam sağlıklı olmadığı görülüyor.
Özellikle dikkat çeken nokta Open Interest tarafı. Open Interest son günlerde yeniden sert biçimde yükselmeye başlamış. Bu durum vadeli piyasada pozisyon birikiminin arttığını ve traderların yeniden agresif şekilde işlem açtığını gösteriyor. Normalde Open Interest yükselirken fiyat da destek alıyorsa piyasa yukarı hareket üretmeye daha yatkın olur. Ancak burada risk NVT Ratio'nun hâlâ çok yüksek ve düzensiz spike’lar üretmeye devam ediyor. NVT’nin yükselmesi, ağ değerinin zincir üzerindeki gerçek işlem aktivitesine göre pahalı kalmaya başladığını gösterir. Yani fiyat yükselse bile temel kullanım aynı hızda büyümüyor olabilir. Bu da yükselişlerin kısa süreli olmasına yol açar.
Market Cap tarafında ise güçlü bir çöküş yok. Market Cap'in yatay kalması, büyük yatırımcıların henüz agresif yatırım yapmadığını düşündürüyor. Bu da aşağı yönlü sert bir çöküş ihtimalini kısa vadede azaltıyor.
Kısa vadede yön biraz daha yukarı eğilimli görünüyor. Open Interest artışı fiyatı yukarı taşımaya çalışıyor. Ancak NVT aşırı yüksek olduğu için yükselişler sağlıksız ve sert volatil olabilir. Bu nedenle senaryo daha çok önce yukarı sıkıştırma, sonra sert düzeltme riski şeklinde duruyor.
Özellikle Open Interest yükselmeye devam ederken fiyat yeni zirve üretemezse, bu durum long squeeze riskini artırır ve #XRP ’de ani aşağı fitiller görülebilir. Buna karşılık fiyat OI artışıyla birlikte dirençleri kırarsa kısa süreli güçlü bir momentum oluşabilir.
$XRP
Could Bitcoin Have Now Transformed into a Stable Macro Asset?
This chart actually creates a fairly strong cycle state map. Model Variance is currently in the NEGATIVE region.
The Stock-to-Flow model is currently in the deep green region. This means the Bitcoin price is significantly below the theoretical value of S2F. In other words, #BTC may be historically undervalued. This is important because at the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks, the variance was in the red. Now it's the opposite.
The Realized Price is rising very strongly. This is the on-chain cost base. The Realized Price is rising aggressively, but the price hasn't surpassed it significantly. This usually indicates strong capital inflow, long-term investor accumulation, and large amounts of money bought at the bottom. In 2021, the price was very detached from the realized price. Now there isn't that much detachment. This points to a healthier cycle structure.
At cycle tops, old holders sell aggressively. CDD increases. The current chart doesn't seem to indicate a late mania phase in the market. Today, price behavior seems more like a mid-cycle consolidation.
The realized price is constantly going up, while the price is moving sideways. Variance is shifting towards negative. Historically, this structure is somewhat similar to mid-2016 and late 2020.
A significant divergence has formed between S2F and price. This divergence will eventually result in the price moving upwards and approaching the pattern. In this case, a delayed retail FOMO will be observed. Until then, the price will continue its sideways negative movement, and it will be accepted that S2F is not working as well as in previous cycles. #Bitcoin may have now transformed into a more mature macro asset. This is also possible. Especially after the ETF era, the market structure changed. $BTC
This chart actually creates a fairly strong cycle state map. Model Variance is currently in the NEGATIVE region.
The Stock-to-Flow model is currently in the deep green region. This means the Bitcoin price is significantly below the theoretical value of S2F. In other words, #BTC may be historically undervalued. This is important because at the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks, the variance was in the red. Now it's the opposite.
The Realized Price is rising very strongly. This is the on-chain cost base. The Realized Price is rising aggressively, but the price hasn't surpassed it significantly. This usually indicates strong capital inflow, long-term investor accumulation, and large amounts of money bought at the bottom. In 2021, the price was very detached from the realized price. Now there isn't that much detachment. This points to a healthier cycle structure.
At cycle tops, old holders sell aggressively. CDD increases. The current chart doesn't seem to indicate a late mania phase in the market. Today, price behavior seems more like a mid-cycle consolidation.
The realized price is constantly going up, while the price is moving sideways. Variance is shifting towards negative. Historically, this structure is somewhat similar to mid-2016 and late 2020.
A significant divergence has formed between S2F and price. This divergence will eventually result in the price moving upwards and approaching the pattern. In this case, a delayed retail FOMO will be observed. Until then, the price will continue its sideways negative movement, and it will be accepted that S2F is not working as well as in previous cycles. #Bitcoin may have now transformed into a more mature macro asset. This is also possible. Especially after the ETF era, the market structure changed. $BTC
Ethereum Bearish Confirmation
The chart shows a weakening technical structure in the market when examining the Ethereum price along with long and short liquidation data on Binance. The downward break of the recently formed triangle pattern indicates that the market's equilibrium has shifted in favor of sellers.
While a drop below the lower band of the triangle isn't a sufficient signal on its own, the downward slope of the moving averages strongly confirms the bearish scenario. The fact that the short-term average remains below the long-term average indicates continued market momentum loss and that rebound rallies may face selling pressure. The downward turn of the blue moving average, in particular, reveals a structural weakening of the trend.
Another notable element in the chart is the Binance liquidation data. Since a large portion of the global volume in the Ethereum derivatives market passes through Binance, the liquidation clusters occurring there are critically important for market direction. The loss of support in the price following sharp long liquidations suggests that leveraged long positions are being liquidated and the market is being cleared downwards. In these types of processes, Binance data usually reflects periods of aggressive position closing by institutional and large players.
The inability of the price to produce a strong recovery after recent liquidation spikes also indicates that the market remains weak. The current technical structure suggests that a downward breakout remains valid, and a new retracement towards the lower support zone indicated on the chart is possible. In particular, if the triangle breakout cannot be reversed upwards, selling pressure is expected to accelerate, targeting the $1350 support level. $ETH
The chart shows a weakening technical structure in the market when examining the Ethereum price along with long and short liquidation data on Binance. The downward break of the recently formed triangle pattern indicates that the market's equilibrium has shifted in favor of sellers.
While a drop below the lower band of the triangle isn't a sufficient signal on its own, the downward slope of the moving averages strongly confirms the bearish scenario. The fact that the short-term average remains below the long-term average indicates continued market momentum loss and that rebound rallies may face selling pressure. The downward turn of the blue moving average, in particular, reveals a structural weakening of the trend.
Another notable element in the chart is the Binance liquidation data. Since a large portion of the global volume in the Ethereum derivatives market passes through Binance, the liquidation clusters occurring there are critically important for market direction. The loss of support in the price following sharp long liquidations suggests that leveraged long positions are being liquidated and the market is being cleared downwards. In these types of processes, Binance data usually reflects periods of aggressive position closing by institutional and large players.
The inability of the price to produce a strong recovery after recent liquidation spikes also indicates that the market remains weak. The current technical structure suggests that a downward breakout remains valid, and a new retracement towards the lower support zone indicated on the chart is possible. In particular, if the triangle breakout cannot be reversed upwards, selling pressure is expected to accelerate, targeting the $1350 support level. $ETH
Ethereum kanal direncinden döndü. Teknik haberden her zaman önde gidiyor. Şimdi min. 1350$ a kadar gerilemesi beklenir. $ETH
Institutions Begin Pulling Bitcoin into Exchanges
When the Institutional Custody Net Flow, OTC buying side liquidity flow, and BTC price are read together in the chart, a strong bullish momentum has not yet been fully achieved in the short term.
Recently, the net flow has been in positive territory. This increases the possibility of a return to accumulation on the institutional side. It could also be preparation for selling.
The fact that the price has been able to hold above the 80K region for a long time, despite the sharp negative spikes seen in the chart, indicates that the selling pressure in the market is not as strong as before in pushing the price down.
Especially in the last section, the BTC price is recovering from the bottom. With each recovery, the net flow starts approaching the positive side again. In addition, despite the extreme negative pressure in OTC flow, the price is not producing a collapse.
This combination is usually seen during periods of seller fatigue. That is, even if selling or transfer movements continue on the institutional side, demand may have started to form in the market to meet this supply. The moment this demand starts to decrease, the bottom we are expecting may come.
The volatility in OTC flow is still very high in the chart. Corporate movements haven't fully entered a strong positive zone. The price doesn't yet appear to have completely broken the previous main downtrend. Therefore, if sustained levels above 80K cannot be achieved in the short term, the likelihood of a stronger decline increases. $BTC
When the Institutional Custody Net Flow, OTC buying side liquidity flow, and BTC price are read together in the chart, a strong bullish momentum has not yet been fully achieved in the short term.
Recently, the net flow has been in positive territory. This increases the possibility of a return to accumulation on the institutional side. It could also be preparation for selling.
The fact that the price has been able to hold above the 80K region for a long time, despite the sharp negative spikes seen in the chart, indicates that the selling pressure in the market is not as strong as before in pushing the price down.
Especially in the last section, the BTC price is recovering from the bottom. With each recovery, the net flow starts approaching the positive side again. In addition, despite the extreme negative pressure in OTC flow, the price is not producing a collapse.
This combination is usually seen during periods of seller fatigue. That is, even if selling or transfer movements continue on the institutional side, demand may have started to form in the market to meet this supply. The moment this demand starts to decrease, the bottom we are expecting may come.
The volatility in OTC flow is still very high in the chart. Corporate movements haven't fully entered a strong positive zone. The price doesn't yet appear to have completely broken the previous main downtrend. Therefore, if sustained levels above 80K cannot be achieved in the short term, the likelihood of a stronger decline increases. $BTC
Ethereum May Have Ended Its Rebound Rally
The chart shows Ethereum's price movement alongside Binance's Exchange Netflow data, revealing a critical squeeze in the market.
The recent sharp positive spikes in Netflow are particularly noteworthy. This indicates a significant influx of ETH into Binance, meaning investors are moving their coins to the exchange. Historically, such movements increase the risk of short-term selling pressure.
The sudden spikes seen on the blue line in the chart show increased activity from whales in the market. However, the fact that the price hasn't experienced a sharp drop is a significant detail. Normally, such intense inflows would push the price down much more aggressively. The relatively stable price suggests the presence of buyers in the spot market.
Looking at the EMA structure, it's clear that the short-term averages haven't yet formed a strong trend. The price wants to go up, but the influx of ETH into Binance is suppressing the movement. Therefore, instead of a rapid rise, a volatile and tiring movement seems more likely.
The fact that the Williams %R data in the lower section is close to the oversold region also increases the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, as long as strong netflow inflows continue, it may be difficult for these rises to be sustainable.
Currently, the most likely scenario can be interpreted as first a short-term rebound, followed by high volatility,
and then, depending on the direction of the netflow data, the main movement continuing as a decline. In the current situation, since the supply transferred to the exchange is still high, there is significant resistance to upward movements. $ETH
The chart shows Ethereum's price movement alongside Binance's Exchange Netflow data, revealing a critical squeeze in the market.
The recent sharp positive spikes in Netflow are particularly noteworthy. This indicates a significant influx of ETH into Binance, meaning investors are moving their coins to the exchange. Historically, such movements increase the risk of short-term selling pressure.
The sudden spikes seen on the blue line in the chart show increased activity from whales in the market. However, the fact that the price hasn't experienced a sharp drop is a significant detail. Normally, such intense inflows would push the price down much more aggressively. The relatively stable price suggests the presence of buyers in the spot market.
Looking at the EMA structure, it's clear that the short-term averages haven't yet formed a strong trend. The price wants to go up, but the influx of ETH into Binance is suppressing the movement. Therefore, instead of a rapid rise, a volatile and tiring movement seems more likely.
The fact that the Williams %R data in the lower section is close to the oversold region also increases the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, as long as strong netflow inflows continue, it may be difficult for these rises to be sustainable.
Currently, the most likely scenario can be interpreted as first a short-term rebound, followed by high volatility,
and then, depending on the direction of the netflow data, the main movement continuing as a decline. In the current situation, since the supply transferred to the exchange is still high, there is significant resistance to upward movements. $ETH
Ethereum is unable to break through the falling trend resistance. Although the pattern within the trend is bullish, ETH faces selling pressure every time the price tests the resistance. I think the price will gradually find its direction now. We will get rid of this uncertainty. $ETH
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture! It will either break $81,500 and start a rally, or it will collapse from its current price. Although the technical indicators strongly suggest a bearish pattern, inflows into ETFs have begun. Taking positions before a breakout could be misleading. #bitcoin $BTC
The basis ratio in the chart shows how much premium investors are willing to pay in the perpetual/futures market. In other words, it measures the market's appetite for leverage.
In mid-2025, as prices rise, the perpetual basis reaches extremely high levels. This period indicates aggressive long accumulation in the market. In other words, a significant portion of the rise was supported by leveraged trading rather than spot demand. However, there has been a very sharp change in recent months. The basis is constantly falling. Leverage appetite is decreasing significantly. The density of long positions is being cleared. Despite this, the price is not collapsing to the same extent. This generally indicates a leverage cleanup. The market is clearing overinflated long positions. This reduces volatility in the short term and creates a healthier structure.
Spot demand may still be keeping the market afloat. If the price doesn't completely collapse while the basis is falling, this may indicate that spot investors are not selling. In other words, while the derivatives market is weak, real buyers are holding the price.
The basis is now approaching historically low levels. This indicates a decrease in excitement and trader enthusiasm in the market.
If there isn't a strong inflow of new money on the spot market, the low basis could eventually cause the price to adapt to the downward basis as well. This is because the derivatives market is no longer generating aggressive volume to support an uptrend.
Especially in the chart after February,
while the basis continues to fall, the price is showing a sideways recovery.
These types of divergences usually result in a breakout after a while. The direction of the breakout will be determined by spot volume. Given the uncertainty in the market and the lack of spot demand, we should prepare ourselves for a downward breakout. $BTC
In mid-2025, as prices rise, the perpetual basis reaches extremely high levels. This period indicates aggressive long accumulation in the market. In other words, a significant portion of the rise was supported by leveraged trading rather than spot demand. However, there has been a very sharp change in recent months. The basis is constantly falling. Leverage appetite is decreasing significantly. The density of long positions is being cleared. Despite this, the price is not collapsing to the same extent. This generally indicates a leverage cleanup. The market is clearing overinflated long positions. This reduces volatility in the short term and creates a healthier structure.
Spot demand may still be keeping the market afloat. If the price doesn't completely collapse while the basis is falling, this may indicate that spot investors are not selling. In other words, while the derivatives market is weak, real buyers are holding the price.
The basis is now approaching historically low levels. This indicates a decrease in excitement and trader enthusiasm in the market.
If there isn't a strong inflow of new money on the spot market, the low basis could eventually cause the price to adapt to the downward basis as well. This is because the derivatives market is no longer generating aggressive volume to support an uptrend.
Especially in the chart after February,
while the basis continues to fall, the price is showing a sideways recovery.
These types of divergences usually result in a breakout after a while. The direction of the breakout will be determined by spot volume. Given the uncertainty in the market and the lack of spot demand, we should prepare ourselves for a downward breakout. $BTC
Ethereum Marks a Six-Year First: Binance Reserve Returns to 2020 Levels
The most striking development in the chart is that Ethereum reserves on Binance have fallen back to 2020 levels after many years. The fact that the price hasn't collapsed to the same extent as the reserve's continuous downward movement indicates a significant decrease in the amount of tradable ETH in the market. The recent acceleration of the reserve decline suggests that investors are choosing to withdraw their ETH from exchanges and hold it.
Historically, such sharp reserve declines usually create a supply squeeze in the market. Because the fewer coins available on exchanges, the easier it becomes for the price to move upwards during sudden increases in demand. The important detail here is that even though the price isn't currently close to its past peaks, reserves are at their lowest levels. This means that the selling pressure in the market appears lower compared to previous cycles.
Looking at past periods in the chart, it's seen that when reserves rise, selling pressure generally increases, while when reserves fall, the price gains strength in the medium term. The current situation, however, is different from previous cycles, with much lower reserve levels. This increases the likelihood of a more volatile upward movement.
Furthermore, the decrease in Binance's reserves may reflect institutional and large wallet movements. Large players generally don't leave assets they plan to hold for a long time on exchanges. Therefore, such a decrease in reserves indicates a strengthening of the holding tendency in the market.
Price fluctuations may continue in the short term, but from a structural perspective, the significant decrease in the supply of ETH on exchanges stands out as one of the strongest indicators reducing long-term selling pressure on Ethereum.
This decrease alone will not trigger a rally. However, if it is accompanied by institutional demand, then the price direction could turn into a rally. $ETH
The most striking development in the chart is that Ethereum reserves on Binance have fallen back to 2020 levels after many years. The fact that the price hasn't collapsed to the same extent as the reserve's continuous downward movement indicates a significant decrease in the amount of tradable ETH in the market. The recent acceleration of the reserve decline suggests that investors are choosing to withdraw their ETH from exchanges and hold it.
Historically, such sharp reserve declines usually create a supply squeeze in the market. Because the fewer coins available on exchanges, the easier it becomes for the price to move upwards during sudden increases in demand. The important detail here is that even though the price isn't currently close to its past peaks, reserves are at their lowest levels. This means that the selling pressure in the market appears lower compared to previous cycles.
Looking at past periods in the chart, it's seen that when reserves rise, selling pressure generally increases, while when reserves fall, the price gains strength in the medium term. The current situation, however, is different from previous cycles, with much lower reserve levels. This increases the likelihood of a more volatile upward movement.
Furthermore, the decrease in Binance's reserves may reflect institutional and large wallet movements. Large players generally don't leave assets they plan to hold for a long time on exchanges. Therefore, such a decrease in reserves indicates a strengthening of the holding tendency in the market.
Price fluctuations may continue in the short term, but from a structural perspective, the significant decrease in the supply of ETH on exchanges stands out as one of the strongest indicators reducing long-term selling pressure on Ethereum.
This decrease alone will not trigger a rally. However, if it is accompanied by institutional demand, then the price direction could turn into a rally. $ETH
Bitcoin is Accumulating Inside the Market
The chart shows that after May 1st, netflow shifted predominantly to the negative zone, meaning an increase in Bitcoin outflows to Binance. The price also rose during the same period. This indicates a decrease in selling pressure in the market.
The decrease in the amount of BTC available for sale on Binance positively impacts the price. If demand remains the same or increases, the price will initiate an upward trend.
In short, outflow and rising price indicate a classic bullish pattern. This is generally seen at the beginning or continuation of a trend. The movement is healthier, especially if supported by spot demand. We are in the trend beginning phase for Bitcoin. An uptrend hasn't started yet, but it could with increased demand.
However, not every negative netflow brings an increase. It's important to note that if, as in this chart, outflows continue while the price also rises, a strong trend can be formed. If demand weakens while outflows continue, sharp declines may begin.
In the short term, the probability of continued upward movement is high. This is also supported by the technical structure, as the market is struggling to find coins to sell.
In the medium to long term, I expect the decline to continue as the technically downtrend structure is still intact. Therefore, this upward movement may only be a correction of the decline. Don't fall into FOMO unless we see a 3-day close above $81,500. $BTC #Binance
The chart shows that after May 1st, netflow shifted predominantly to the negative zone, meaning an increase in Bitcoin outflows to Binance. The price also rose during the same period. This indicates a decrease in selling pressure in the market.
The decrease in the amount of BTC available for sale on Binance positively impacts the price. If demand remains the same or increases, the price will initiate an upward trend.
In short, outflow and rising price indicate a classic bullish pattern. This is generally seen at the beginning or continuation of a trend. The movement is healthier, especially if supported by spot demand. We are in the trend beginning phase for Bitcoin. An uptrend hasn't started yet, but it could with increased demand.
However, not every negative netflow brings an increase. It's important to note that if, as in this chart, outflows continue while the price also rises, a strong trend can be formed. If demand weakens while outflows continue, sharp declines may begin.
In the short term, the probability of continued upward movement is high. This is also supported by the technical structure, as the market is struggling to find coins to sell.
In the medium to long term, I expect the decline to continue as the technically downtrend structure is still intact. Therefore, this upward movement may only be a correction of the decline. Don't fall into FOMO unless we see a 3-day close above $81,500. $BTC #Binance
Ethereum has completed its intermediate uptrend. I now expect it to start falling. It maintains its downtrend structure. Unless it closes above $2500 for 3 days, I will maintain my downward expectation. #ethereum
ethereum support levels:
$2100
$1750
$1350
$ETH
ethereum support levels:
$2100
$1750
$1350
$ETH
Bitcoin is rising, but will this rise form a trend? Based on the current chart, we can't say an uptrend has started. For an uptrend to begin, we need to see three consecutive closes above $81,500!
My expectation of a decline continues; I've mentioned the possibility of a rise in both on-chain and technical analysis posts. I think we're nearing the end of this false spring. #bitcoin
bitcoin support levels
$72750
$64800
$57850
$51700
$BTC #bitcoin
My expectation of a decline continues; I've mentioned the possibility of a rise in both on-chain and technical analysis posts. I think we're nearing the end of this false spring. #bitcoin
bitcoin support levels
$72750
$64800
$57850
$51700
$BTC #bitcoin
A New Bottom is Coming for Ethereum
Whenever the Exchange Supply Ratio makes a sharp drop, the price also tends to form a bottom. Historically, this behavior shows that when the Ratio falls, the supply on exchanges decreases. This generally indicates that as selling pressure decreases, the price also enters a bottoming zone. However, there is a significant divergence in the current chart. The Ratio has now fallen back to its lowest levels, but the price hasn't produced a bottom of the same magnitude; it's still holding above. This suggests the price hasn't yet reached its true bottom. Even if the supply decrease indicated by the Ratio has occurred, the price may not have fully priced it in yet. This increases the possibility of a delayed downward movement. This could be because the market is being artificially held high. It's possible the price will remain resistant for a while longer, particularly due to the influence of the derivatives market. However, such divergences generally don't last long.
In short, the ratio has bottomed out in the current scenario, and the price should have bottomed out as well, but it didn't. Such divergences are often resolved by the price falling and aligning with the ratio. Therefore, in the current scenario, the risk is downward, and the possibility of a delayed bottom is on the table. The market may soon close this gap. $ETH #Ethereum
Whenever the Exchange Supply Ratio makes a sharp drop, the price also tends to form a bottom. Historically, this behavior shows that when the Ratio falls, the supply on exchanges decreases. This generally indicates that as selling pressure decreases, the price also enters a bottoming zone. However, there is a significant divergence in the current chart. The Ratio has now fallen back to its lowest levels, but the price hasn't produced a bottom of the same magnitude; it's still holding above. This suggests the price hasn't yet reached its true bottom. Even if the supply decrease indicated by the Ratio has occurred, the price may not have fully priced it in yet. This increases the possibility of a delayed downward movement. This could be because the market is being artificially held high. It's possible the price will remain resistant for a while longer, particularly due to the influence of the derivatives market. However, such divergences generally don't last long.
In short, the ratio has bottomed out in the current scenario, and the price should have bottomed out as well, but it didn't. Such divergences are often resolved by the price falling and aligning with the ratio. Therefore, in the current scenario, the risk is downward, and the possibility of a delayed bottom is on the table. The market may soon close this gap. $ETH #Ethereum
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