After checking out Nvidia's earnings report last night, I'm even more convinced of one thing:
The AI wave isn’t over, but the phase of "blindly buying tech giants" is pretty much done.
If you look at this scorecard, it’s actually so strong that there’s not much to nitpick.
Quarterly revenue hit $81.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 85%.
Next quarter's guidance is still above market expectations, and they casually threw in an $80 billion share buyback.
Based on the market vibes from the past couple of years, this level of data would usually be enough for another round of euphoria.
But not this time.
After hours, the stock price dropped by 1.6% at one point. This actually says a lot: it’s not that the earnings report wasn’t good enough, but rather that the market's threshold has been raised too high.
In the past, everyone was buying into the idea that "AI is definitely going to be huge," so as long as you were on that line,
you’d get valuations, imagination, and emotional premiums. Now, it’s different.
The market is starting to seriously ask: when will your capex actually turn into revenue, profit, and cash flow?
In simple terms, AI trading has shifted from phase one to phase two.
Phase one was about who could tell the best story.
Phase two is about who can turn that story into real cash.
So, the divergence in US tech stocks right now essentially reflects the market filtering out the players:
Who is the rock-solid anchor, and who is just an emotional bubble?
The former, even if pricey, the market is still willing to give a premium because they’ve proven they can convert AI into orders, cloud revenue, and industry pricing power.
The latter is different; they soar the highest during rallies and have the sexiest narratives, but if they lag even a little in delivering, their valuations will take the hit first.
I’m increasingly feeling that this isn’t a sudden burst of an AI bubble, but rather the market finally starting to pick winners.
What can still hold steady isn’t about who tells the best AI story, but who first turns AI into a profit statement. #在币安广场聊传统金融
The AI wave isn’t over, but the phase of "blindly buying tech giants" is pretty much done.
If you look at this scorecard, it’s actually so strong that there’s not much to nitpick.
Quarterly revenue hit $81.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 85%.
Next quarter's guidance is still above market expectations, and they casually threw in an $80 billion share buyback.
Based on the market vibes from the past couple of years, this level of data would usually be enough for another round of euphoria.
But not this time.
After hours, the stock price dropped by 1.6% at one point. This actually says a lot: it’s not that the earnings report wasn’t good enough, but rather that the market's threshold has been raised too high.
In the past, everyone was buying into the idea that "AI is definitely going to be huge," so as long as you were on that line,
you’d get valuations, imagination, and emotional premiums. Now, it’s different.
The market is starting to seriously ask: when will your capex actually turn into revenue, profit, and cash flow?
In simple terms, AI trading has shifted from phase one to phase two.
Phase one was about who could tell the best story.
Phase two is about who can turn that story into real cash.
So, the divergence in US tech stocks right now essentially reflects the market filtering out the players:
Who is the rock-solid anchor, and who is just an emotional bubble?
The former, even if pricey, the market is still willing to give a premium because they’ve proven they can convert AI into orders, cloud revenue, and industry pricing power.
The latter is different; they soar the highest during rallies and have the sexiest narratives, but if they lag even a little in delivering, their valuations will take the hit first.
I’m increasingly feeling that this isn’t a sudden burst of an AI bubble, but rather the market finally starting to pick winners.
What can still hold steady isn’t about who tells the best AI story, but who first turns AI into a profit statement. #在币安广场聊传统金融