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🚨 Macro Focus: Fed, Geopolitics & Market Sentiment$BTC

$ETH
$BNB

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al Reserve: Expected to end tapering from December, signaling a shift toward easing — a medium- to long-term bullish factor for risk assets and crypto. 🏦📈

2️⃣ Global Leaders’ Meeting: Two key world leaders are set to meet and shake hands tomorrow, improving geopolitical sentiment and boosting market confidence — short- to medium-term support for risk appetite. 🤝🌍

⚠️ Short-term risk:
Chair Powell has said, “A December rate cut is not a done deal.”
This has created temporary uncertainty and reduced market rate-cut expectations to around 70%, versus a fundamental probability closer to 90% in my view.

💬 Summary:
The current short-term weakness and hesitation are likely temporary. Once markets digest Powell’s cautious tone, value should quickly return as traders refocus on the bigger picture — a likely December rate cut and the end of tapering.

📊 Crypto Angle:

Medium- to long-term bullish on BTC and major altcoins as liquidity returns.

Short-term consolidation expected as traders wait for confirmation from the Fed and the geopolitical outcome.

🔍 Quick Market Analysis (as of now)

FactorEffectMarket BiasFed Tapering Ends (Dec)Boosts liquidity, positive for BTC/ETH🔼 BullishLeaders’ MeetingReduces global risk aversion🔼 BullishPowell’s “Not a Done Deal”Short-term caution, may weigh on sentiment🔽 Bearish (temporary)Overall OutlookHigher probability of Dec rate cut (≈ 90%)⚖️ Bullish Medium-Term


➡️ Short-term: Sideways / Mild correction (market digesting Powell’s comments).
➡️ Medium-term: Bullish — rate cut expectations and easing liquidity could lift BTC toward new highs.
➡️ Long-term: Macro trend still favors risk assets — especially as global liquidity improves.

#ShareYourThoughtOnBTC $BTC
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a crucial press conference tomorrow after the Fed’s rate decision. Markets are on edge: futures are pricing a near-100% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. The Fed’s Open Market Committee will meet Oct. 28–29 (announcement Wed. Oct. 29 at 2:00 PM Eastern, 10:00 PM Dubai), followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM Eastern (10:30 PM Dubai). Every word from Powell will be parsed for clues.

Meeting Schedule (Dubai Time)

Wed, Oct 29 – 10:00 PM: Fed announces policy rate. A 25 bps cut to a 3.75%-4.00% target range is widely expected.

Wed, Oct 29 – 10:30 PM: Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference. Markets will watch for dovish signals and guidance on the Fed’s balance sheet.

Fed officials are reacting to easing pressures in the economy. Climbing unemployment claims suggest labor demand is cooling, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed many reports on jobs and inflation. In fact, inflation has been relatively mild – consumer prices were up just 3.0% year-on-year in September – which cuts inflation worries. With growth moderate and inflation above target but slowing, policymakers have signaled readiness to ease policy further if needed.

Fed communications have already contained dovish hints. Last month’s statement introduced wording about “additional adjustments” to the policy rate, which Vice-Chair Michelle Bowman flagged as foreshadowing future cuts. Powell himself is expected to play it cautious; analysts say he will likely leave the door open on further cuts and is unlikely to pre-commit to a December easing. Still, most economists believe the Fed will continue to ease if economic conditions weaken.

Balance-sheet runoff to end soon. In addition to cutting rates, the Fed is expected to announce the winding down of its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Powell has signaled that QT could stop “in the coming months”. Indeed, reports suggest the Fed “could signal this week it will soon stop shrinking its balance sheet, ending its so-called quantitative tightening as soon as this month”. Ending QT would be another dovish shift – effectively leaving interest rates as the main policy tool going forward.

Markets are already positioned for easy money. Fed funds futures now reflect almost certain odds of a 25 bp cut this week, and about a 95% chance of another cut by December. Equities and bonds have rallied on these easing bets. Still, traders will brace for volatility. A more hawkish tone from Powell could send yields up and stocks down, while a clearly dovish stance may spark rallies. This is indeed the “decisive night” for U.S. interest rates: every word from Powell will move the markets.#WriteToEarnUpgrade #MarketPullback #FranceBTCReserveBill #AltcoinETFsLaunch

$BTC
#ShareYourThoughtOnBTC BTC/USDT Short-Term Outlook

Recent Price Action & Chart Patterns

In the past week Bitcoin has broken out of the $100–110K range, climbing from an early-October low ($103K) to roughly $114–115K as of Oct 27. Notably, a bullish double-bottom formed near $108.6K (around the 200-day EMA) and was validated by a follow-on rally above ~$115K. Similarly, a daily bullish engulfing candle on Oct 23 confirmed strong buying just below $108K. On Oct 27 Bitcoin was trading 1.2% higher ($114.9K) after a Fed/CPI-fueled rally, with a surge in volume. The chart above illustrates these moves and key Fibonacci levels (61.8% retrace at ~$106.45K) – price found support around $106–107K before the recent bounce.

Chart Levels: After reclaiming the 50-day EMA (~$114.2K), Bitcoin is near multi-week highs. It has moved above its prior consolidation zone and is consolidating in the $113K–115K area.

Candlestick Signals: The Oct 23 daily candle engulfed the previous range, signaling a trend reversal. Friday Oct 24 also showed buyers stepping in on dips, and so far early Oct. 27 price action remains bullish.

Recent Highs/Lows: The cycle high was ~126K (Oct 6 ATH) and low ~103K (Oct 10). Thus far the bounce has recouped a significant portion of that drop. A clean close above ~$115.6K extended the move and confirmed the double-bottom rebound.

Support & Resistance Levels

Immediate Resistance: Around $116,000, which capped Bitcoin’s price recently. Beyond that, short-term resistance is in the $117,600–$120,000 zone (roughly July highs). A decisive break above ~$120K would open the $121–126K “all-time high” territory.

Key Support: Near $113,500–$114,000, which was prior resistance turned support. Below that, the $110–$110.5K area (psychological round number) has shown buying (CoinCodex cites ~$110.9K support). Stronger support lies around $106–108K, the recent swing-low and 61.8% fib retracement of the late‑June rally. If price fell further, the prior Oct 10 low near $102K would be the next downside target.

Moving Averages & Trend Indicators

Traders often watch short/medium/long MAs (e.g. 7, 25, 99 periods) to gauge trend. A bullish signal occurs when a short-term MA(7) crosses above a mid-term MA(25), while price above a long-term MA(99) confirms an uptrend. In the current rally: Bitcoin has cleared its 50-day EMA (~$114.2K), which now acts as near-term support. The 200-day EMA lies around $108.6K (the recent low). (By analogy, on shorter charts a 7-period MA rising above a 25-period MA would be viewed as a short-term bullish crossover.) Overall, the market remains above key medium- and long-term moving averages, which supports a bullish bias.

Technical Indicators (RSI, MACD, Volume)

RSI: The daily RSI is still in the mid-40s (neutral) and trending up, implying room for further gains before becoming overbought. On shorter (hourly) charts, the RSI has run into overbought territory (>70), suggesting a near-term pause or pullback may occur.

MACD: Momentum is turning positive. The daily MACD lines are converging toward a bullish crossover, and on intraday charts the MACD has already crossed above its signal line (bullish). This aligns with the rally from $108K, reinforcing that upward momentum is intact.

$BTC Volume: Trading volume has spiked in recent sessions, confirming the breakout. For example, Oct 27 saw ~$11.6M on-chain volume and a $1.21B turnover as BTC broke above $115K. TradingNews notes that volume was “more than 318% above the session average” during the latest advance. The surge in turnover coincided with the move above resistance, indicating strong buying conviction.

Market Sentiment & News Catalysts

Macro Events: Late Oct headlines have been bullish for crypto. A US‑China trade deal framework was announced over the weekend, easing global risk‑off fears. Softer US inflation data also lifted expectations that the Fed will cut rates (market pricing ~99% chance of a 25bp cut on Oct 29). Together these lifted equity markets and risk assets – Bitcoin jumped to ~$114.9K on Oct 27 on this news.

Institutional Flows: Crypto ETFs have seen renewed inflows (~$445M into Bitcoin ETFs last week), indicating growing institutional demand. Additionally, derivatives data suggest a classic short-squeeze: CoinGlass reports $319M of short liquidations in 24h, forcing bears to cover and adding fuel to the rally. Futures open interest is ~ $35B, near July levels, signaling steady engagement.

Analyst Views: Standard Chartered’s research posits that if current momentum persists, $BTC “may NEVER go below 100k again”. Others note that renewed ETF inflows and Fed easing typically bolster crypto. In sum, market participants are optimistic that easing trade tensions and monetary policy will support higher prices.

Short-Term Sentiment: Technical sentiment is strongly bullish. CoinCodex finds ~87% of indicators predicting higher BTC in the next few days. Most signals (moving averages, oscillators, price patterns) favor an uptrend. That said, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is around 40 (“Fear”), reflecting some caution after the sharp pullback – but bulls have clearly seized control in the near term.

Short-Term Trading Outlook (1–4 days)

Bullish Bias: As long as Bitcoin holds above ~$113.5K (the recent breakout pivot), short-term momentum remains upward. In that case the path of least resistance is toward the next caps at $116–118K and eventually ~$120K. A decisive break above ~$120K would target $121–126K (the prior all-time-high zone).

Pullback Risk: However, hourly charts show overbought RSI and divergence developing, warning of a pullback or consolidation in the very short term. Traders should watch the $114K–115K area as support on any retrace. If that level holds, buyers could re-enter on dips. If Bitcoin were to fall below ~$113K on heavy volume, a deeper pullback toward $110K or even $106–108K (the 61.8% fib/200EMA zone) would become likely.

Upcoming Events: The Federal Reserve’s Oct 29 policy decision (widely expected to cut rates) is a key event that could cause volatility. Any surprises on interest rates or trade negotiations may swing BTC sharply. In the immediate 1–4 day window, traders should remain tactically long-biased while managing risk with stops below recent support.#MarketRebound #CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade #thelocators