The whole market was pricing in a peace deal this week. Today the signing 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗲𝗱.
Israel hit southern Lebanon overnight, Iran pulled its delegation, and the Bürgenstock signing is off indefinitely. the tape did the rest:
→ $BTC down about 3% to $62,500 → ETH off 3.26% at $1,687 → $XRP the worst major, down 4.61% to $1.12 → SOL off 4.89% to $68 → BNB down 3.22% at $571 → Total market cap sliding toward $2.1T
Two hits in one week.
Wednesday it was the Fed turning hawkish. today it's the peace deal falling apart.
Fear and Greed is back in 𝗘𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝗿.
𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗼 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.
one thing didn't move: the CLARITY Act is still on the Senate calendar, July 4 target intact.
the dump is geopolitics. the catalyst is still coming. fear's back in the building 👀
Majoritatea oamenilor au crezut că această întâlnire a Fed-ului a fost o non-știre.
𝗱𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁-ul a spus altceva.
Au menținut ratele, exact cum se aștepta piața. Apoi, proiecțiile au scăzut:
→ Ratele au fost menținute la 3.50% până la 3.75%, vot unanim → 97% dintre traderi prețuiseră menținerea, nu punctele → Punctul median pentru 2026 s-a mutat de la 3.4% la 𝟯.𝟴% → 9 oficiali susțin acum o altă creștere anul acesta → Inflația a crescut din nou la 4.2% → Locurile de muncă sunt în continuare fierbinți: 172.000 adăugate în mai, 4.3% șomaj
O menținere nu a fost niciodată povestea.
Povestea reală este că Fed-ul a notat o 𝗵𝗶𝗸𝗲 pentru acest an.
$BTC și $ETH au funcționat tot anul pe tăieri care tocmai au fost șterse.
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗵𝗮𝘄𝗸𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱.
fiecare tranzacție pe risc anul acesta s-a bazat pe relaxarea Fed-ului.
→ dumped from 73,000 to under 60,000 last week → lowest level since November 2024 → clawed back to ~63,500 by the weekend → opened Monday at 𝟲𝟱,𝟳𝟭𝟬, up 2% → $ETH up 2.6%, back near 1,762 → highest prints since June even started → US/Iran ceasefire on the table, signing as soon as this week → oil rolling over, Nasdaq bid up off the SpaceX debut
𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁, 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗼𝗱.
last week the timeline wanted 55k.
this week it's green and nobody remembers.
macro headlines are moving this market harder than any chart right now.
ceasefire holds, risk stays on. watching this one 👀