While price pushed higher aggressively, spot demand also increased significantly, which means this move was backed by real buying pressure rather than just leverage.
At the same time, open interest has started to cool off after trending higher for days, reducing the amount of excessive leverage in the market.
Meanwhile, the funding rate has flipped from positive into negative territory right as price continues moving higher.
This suggests that shorts are becoming aggressive again while the market is still showing strength.
Overall, the current move looks much healthier as the market has started to deleverage while demand continues to come from the spot side.
Right now I’m waiting for a sweep of the low at $79.1k. If price is able to reclaim the grey zone right after the sweep, I’ll look to take a long position.
The reason I like this setup is because a lot of liquidity has built up below that low over the past days, making a sweep into support highly likely before continuation.
My first target will be the recent highs, which still remain unswept. This is where I’m planning to secure partial profits.
If momentum remains strong afterward, I think there’s a good chance we continue toward the CME gap at $84k.
That’s also where the limit order for my swing short trade is sitting.
După o ieșire puternică peste $79k, prețul a retestat maximele și am avut un bounce decent.
Cu toate acestea, cumpărătorii nu au reușit să curețe maximul local, ceea ce înseamnă că, dacă BTC nu reușește să se miște mai sus în curând, este probabil să imprimăm un maxim mai mic.
Deocamdată, totuși, prețul se menține deasupra nivelului cheie de suport la $79k, care rămâne zona principală pe care cumpărătorii trebuie să o apere.
Structura bullish este invalidată doar dacă pierdem $78.6k, dar atâta timp cât acest lucru nu se întâmplă, o altă mișcare către $84k este cu siguranță încă posibilă.
Historically, major cycle bottoms formed once the majority of holders were sitting at a loss and the market entered fear and capitulation, while cycle tops were marked by euphoria and greed.
Right now, NUPL is once again pushing back into the optimism and belief zone.
What stands out is that NUPL still hasn’t entered capitulation, unlike at every previous cycle bottom.
That means sentiment has already recovered significantly, despite the fact that many signs of a true macro bottom are still missing.
This is exactly why I still believe most people are underestimating the possibility of another larger correction before the real bottom forms.
$BTC • Taps 0.382 Fib Reversal Level. • Fills largest CME Gap. • Still Trading under trendline. • 15B in Longs vs 3B in Shorts. • RSI hitting Overbought.
$BTC Looks bearish below these levels. A sudden -10% move to the downside is possible. Reversal Soon.