The news about a peace memorandum between the US and Iran triggered classic relief on traditional platforms: futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq soared, while Brent oil fell below $84.
But seasoned analysts are urging us to take off the rose-colored glasses and remember history. The end of the 1973 oil crisis was also met with cheers, but then the S&P 500 index plummeted nearly 50% in six months. The energy shock has already set off the inflationary spiral, and the Fed had to tighten the screws hard.
Today the situation is a mirror image. Trump is calling to 'rev up the engines' and open the Strait of Hormuz, but stock indices and crypto are hovering near their all-time highs, while inflation risks haven't disappeared.
If history repeats itself, the euphoria of the first days will be followed by a harsh hangover, and the next 4-5 months will be a tough test for risk assets, including $BTC .
Geopolitical de-escalation is great for headlines, but it can't override the laws of macroeconomics. The market buys expectations and sells facts: oil is getting cheaper, but the fundamental issues of the global financial system remain unresolved.
They're trying to sell us hope for a smooth ride again, but if you don't want to lose touch with reality amid the news noise — subscribe to @MoonMan567 , where we analyze facts, not emotions.
