I swept through the TRADIFI sector in the early morning, and I've been watching the $SPCX line for about twenty minutes. It has a 24-hour increase of 1.027%, not too eye-catching, right? But the weird part is the funding rate. 0.00000000, zero. In a slowly rising chain of US stocks, neither the bulls nor the bears in the futures market are willing to pay each other, which is itself abnormal. The price is slowly creeping up to 166.29, with a 24-hour trading volume of 141 million USD, which isn’t small, and with an open interest of 1.02 million USD, that's enough to watch. Yet, the rate is flat, which indicates what? Both sides are waiting for the other to make a move.
I pulled up the open interest change curve from the past two weeks, and since around December 20, the open interest of $SPCX has slowly climbed from over 700,000 to the current 1.02 million. The slope isn't steep, but the direction is clear. Money is coming in, and it's not just a pulse that comes in and dumps. It’s entering slowly and exiting slowly; I've seen this kind of funding structure too many times. It could either be believers in chain-based US stocks dollar-cost averaging or big players splitting their positions to avoid slippage. Since there haven't been any TRADFI-related announcements pushing this, this flow seems more like a spontaneous behavior. Spontaneous buying paired with a zero funding rate means the bulls haven’t reached a point of overload yet, but it's not safe either, because once the funding turns positive and accelerates, the crowd will come in.
I've compared this sector horizontally with other contracts in the EQUITY category. Although there isn’t a designated reference target this week, as an old trader, I recall that derivatives of this kind of chain-based US stocks often have a common issue: when they rise, the funding jumps to positive very quickly, often spiking to over 0.01% in just a day or two, and then a sharp drop comes in to harvest. $SPCX is still grinding near zero, indicating that speculative positions haven’t entered on a large scale yet, which is the only thing worth watching right now. Conversely, the fact that those who want it haven't rushed in indicates that the narrative hasn't fermented to the FOMO stage yet. This is good news and bad news; the good news is that we might not see a top so quickly, but the bad news is it may take more time.
My own thought process is very straightforward: I'm not chasing at this position. There's a small bullish candle accumulating around 166, but it hasn’t broken through the previous high of 168.8 with volume. I’d rather wait. If it stabilizes above 169 and the funding remains below 0.005%, I’ll go in with half my position, placing a stop loss below 162, betting on a spike to the 175-180 range. If it drops below 160 and the open interest decreases by over 8%, then this slow rise is a false breakout, and I’ll directly flip to a light short position.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #SPCX #SPCXUSDT $SPCX
I pulled up the open interest change curve from the past two weeks, and since around December 20, the open interest of $SPCX has slowly climbed from over 700,000 to the current 1.02 million. The slope isn't steep, but the direction is clear. Money is coming in, and it's not just a pulse that comes in and dumps. It’s entering slowly and exiting slowly; I've seen this kind of funding structure too many times. It could either be believers in chain-based US stocks dollar-cost averaging or big players splitting their positions to avoid slippage. Since there haven't been any TRADFI-related announcements pushing this, this flow seems more like a spontaneous behavior. Spontaneous buying paired with a zero funding rate means the bulls haven’t reached a point of overload yet, but it's not safe either, because once the funding turns positive and accelerates, the crowd will come in.
I've compared this sector horizontally with other contracts in the EQUITY category. Although there isn’t a designated reference target this week, as an old trader, I recall that derivatives of this kind of chain-based US stocks often have a common issue: when they rise, the funding jumps to positive very quickly, often spiking to over 0.01% in just a day or two, and then a sharp drop comes in to harvest. $SPCX is still grinding near zero, indicating that speculative positions haven’t entered on a large scale yet, which is the only thing worth watching right now. Conversely, the fact that those who want it haven't rushed in indicates that the narrative hasn't fermented to the FOMO stage yet. This is good news and bad news; the good news is that we might not see a top so quickly, but the bad news is it may take more time.
My own thought process is very straightforward: I'm not chasing at this position. There's a small bullish candle accumulating around 166, but it hasn’t broken through the previous high of 168.8 with volume. I’d rather wait. If it stabilizes above 169 and the funding remains below 0.005%, I’ll go in with half my position, placing a stop loss below 162, betting on a spike to the 175-180 range. If it drops below 160 and the open interest decreases by over 8%, then this slow rise is a false breakout, and I’ll directly flip to a light short position.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #SPCX #SPCXUSDT $SPCX