memecoin

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The memecoin sector may be closer to a reversal than many traders anticipate, despite continued volatility across the broader cryptocurrency market. According to blockchain analytics firm Santiment, current sentiment trends suggest that the market could be approaching a classic capitulation phase — a condition that historically precedes recovery periods.
In a report released Friday, Santiment noted a growing narrative among retail traders that the “meme era is over,” with many market participants dismissing memecoins as a fading trend.
“Widespread acceptance that ‘the meme cycle is finished’ is often a textbook sign of market capitulation,” the firm stated. “When a sector is broadly considered worthless or dead, that is typically when contrarian investors begin paying attention.”
Santiment emphasized that extreme pessimism has frequently coincided with market bottoms in previous crypto cycles.
Memecoin Market Cap Drops Over 34% Amid Broader Crypto Weakness
The total memecoin market capitalization has declined approximately 34.04% over the past 30 days, falling to around $31.02 billion. The correction comes as the broader digital asset market also experiences downward pressure.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on February 3, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Bitcoin’s pullback has contributed to reduced risk appetite across altcoins and speculative sectors, including memecoins.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, most memecoins recorded only modest weekly gains — if any. One notable outlier was Pippin, which surged an impressive 243.17% over the past seven days. Meanwhile, Official Trump posted a smaller gain of 1.37%, and Shiba Inu increased by 1.11% during the same period.
Despite isolated breakouts, overall capital rotation into memecoins remains subdued.
Capital Rotation Patterns May Be Evolving
Historically, crypto market cycles have followed a relatively consistent pattern. Bitcoin typically reaches new all-time highs first, followed by capital rotation into Ethereum, and eventually into higher-risk altcoins and speculative assets such as memecoins.
However, as Bitcoin continues to mature as an asset class and attract growing institutional participation, some analysts are questioning whether traditional capital rotation cycles will unfold in the same way going forward.
Institutional adoption, regulated investment products, and macroeconomic influences have introduced new structural dynamics to the market. As a result, risk distribution may no longer cascade uniformly across all altcoins during bullish phases.
Next Altcoin Season May Be More Selective
Several market observers suggest that the next altcoin cycle may be far more selective compared to previous bull markets, where broad-based rallies lifted nearly all tokens simultaneously.
Craig Cobb, founder of The Grow Me, previously commented in August 2025 that the next altcoin season would likely not resemble prior “rising tide lifts all boats” cycles. Instead, capital could concentrate in projects with stronger fundamentals, liquidity, or narrative momentum.
Santiment’s social sentiment analysis supports this cautious outlook. The firm reports that negative commentary across social media platforms significantly outweighs positive mentions regarding memecoins. Fear-driven narratives, skepticism, and dismissal appear to dominate online discussions.
Yet historically, markets tend to move counter to majority sentiment.
“Prolonged skepticism — even during minor price recoveries — can be a constructive signal,” Santiment concluded. “Markets often bottom when disbelief is strongest.”
Capitulation as a Potential Precursor to Recovery
In financial markets, capitulation refers to a phase where investors collectively abandon positions amid exhaustion and pessimism. This often occurs near local or macro bottoms, when selling pressure becomes extreme and marginal sellers are depleted.
Santiment suggests that the memecoin sector may be approaching such a phase. While this does not guarantee immediate upside, sentiment conditions are increasingly aligned with historical reversal environments.
However, broader macroeconomic factors — including Bitcoin’s price stability, global liquidity conditions, and regulatory developments — will likely continue to influence the pace and sustainability of any recovery.
Outlook: Monitoring Sentiment and Liquidity
For now, memecoins remain under pressure, with reduced speculative participation compared to peak cycle periods. Liquidity flows appear cautious, and volatility remains elevated.
Key factors to monitor include:
Bitcoin price stability and dominance levels
Social sentiment trends and volume metrics
Exchange inflows and outflows
Broader altcoin market structure
While sentiment extremes can present contrarian opportunities, they also carry heightened risk. Market participants are advised to assess volatility tolerance and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions.
Final Note
The memecoin market is currently facing one of its most pessimistic sentiment phases in recent months. According to Santiment’s historical analysis, such environments have sometimes preceded recovery periods — though timing remains uncertain.
This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and readers should perform their own due diligence before making financial decisions.
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