oilmarket

Securities strategist Pooja
Kumra highlights that markets are focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran conflict scenarios, with prediction markets assigning only modest odds to a ceasefire by April 2026. Even a benign outcome is seen resetting Oil higher than prior forecasts, while a prolonged conflict could send prices sharply higher, reinforcing pressure on inflation and European and UK rates.
Iran conflict scenarios reset Oil outlook:
"Prediction markets are currently pricing roughly a 30% probability of a cease fire by March 2026 and a 40% probability of a cease fire by April 2026. even in a benign scenario, the disruption is sufficient to reset oil prices to $70-75 per barrel."
"This is well above m earlier forecast of Brent averaging around $65 this year, which now looks unachievable. Under a prolonged conflict, upside risks extend materially, with oil prices potentially moving north of $150."
"A 10% rise in oil prices lowers EU/UK GDP by around 0.1–0.2% while lifting inflation by 0.3–0.4% over a 12m timeframe."
"Unlike 2022, Europe is facing a price shock rather than a supply shock, reflecting greater energy resilience through higher LNG imports, increased storage, and a ~20% reduction in gas usage."
"This has enabled a more coordinated global effort to ease oil prices, unlike the largely unilateral European response in 2022 where the fiscal response was close to 3% of GDP."
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#IranIsraelConflict

Most people were laughing.😂
They said:
“Robert, Iran is finished. Israel has destroyed 80% of their air defenses. The war is over.”😅
I said: Iran is not trying to win the war.
Iran’s aim is to make winning so expensive that winning itself becomes meaningless.
These are two completely different games, and most people still don’t understand the difference.
Iran is no longer fighting a conventional military war.
Iran is now fighting an economic war.
Their target is not a military base.
Not a fighter jet.
Not even Israel alone.
(Literally, they do target these, but here we’re talking about the objective — how Iran defines victory.)
Their real target is oil prices.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has made their goal absolutely clear:
$200 per barrel.
That is the target. That is the mission.
Iran will declare victory not by shooting down an F-35, but by driving oil prices so painfully high, unbearable, and destructive to the global economy that President Trump receives 50 calls a day from world leaders to stop the war.
Think about this strategy.
Here’s how Iran is executing it:
$15,000 drones targeting billion-dollar oil infrastructure.
Naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz — the route where nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes.
Attacks on pipelines, storage facilities, logistics hubs, and refineries.
None of this is random or desperate.
It’s a calculated strategy.
(As I’ve said, they’ve been preparing for this war for decades.)
Every attack has only one purpose:
Disrupt oil supply.
When supply stops, prices rise.
When prices rise, the whole world reacts.
Iran’s logic is simple yet harsh:
The day oil hits $200 per barrel — Iran wins.
Not because they shot down a plane.
But because at $200:
Every Arab nation is screaming.
Every European leader is calling Washington.
Every American voter is angry at the gas pump.
Then President Trump will have to make a completely different decision.
Iran is not just trying to survive the war.
Iran is trying to make winning the war worse than losing it.
This is their strategy.
I’ve been saying this consistently for 8–9 days.
Missiles are just a distraction.
The real weapon is oil prices.
So don’t watch the number of missiles — watch the price of oil.
❗❓❕❔
How could Iran’s strategy of targeting global oil prices reshape the balance of power in the Middle East?
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#IranStrategy #middleeastconflict #OilMarket #EconomicWarfare #IRGC
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