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Agora que marcamos ATH, podemos medir a queda que precedeu o movimento de alta a partir de 74k para as metas de expansão.
Ainda não sei se vamos ter uma verdadeira quebra de faixa aqui, ou manipular acima da faixa e reverter. Estou 50/50, então feliz em esperar para mais ação de preço se desenvolver.
No caso de ser uma verdadeira quebra de faixa, quero me juntar à tendência e mirar o fib roxo em 131k, esperando resistência menor (relativamente falando) em 119.1k. O posicionamento provavelmente ocorrerá > a faixa, mas há um caso onde ainda podemos descer e marcar um desequilíbrio dentro da referida faixa para combustível para subir, mas esse cenário é ligeiramente nuançado. Postarei sobre essas nuances se necessário - mas por agora, esperando mais PA.
No caso de ser uma falsa quebra, as metas de expansão de faixa não importam (por enquanto) e vou buscar me posicionar vendido e esperar mais condições de faixa na faixa de 70-110k.
$BTC
Agora que marcamos ATH, podemos medir a queda que precedeu o movimento de alta a partir de 74k para as metas de expansão.
Ainda não sei se vamos ter uma verdadeira quebra de faixa aqui, ou manipular acima da faixa e reverter. Estou 50/50, então feliz em esperar para mais ação de preço se desenvolver.
No caso de ser uma verdadeira quebra de faixa, quero me juntar à tendência e mirar o fib roxo em 131k, esperando resistência menor (relativamente falando) em 119.1k. O posicionamento provavelmente ocorrerá > a faixa, mas há um caso onde ainda podemos descer e marcar um desequilíbrio dentro da referida faixa para combustível para subir, mas esse cenário é ligeiramente nuançado. Postarei sobre essas nuances se necessário - mas por agora, esperando mais PA.
No caso de ser uma falsa quebra, as metas de expansão de faixa não importam (por enquanto) e vou buscar me posicionar vendido e esperar mais condições de faixa na faixa de 70-110k.
$BTC
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One of my leading indicators ( $COIN ) is at supply with a daily bear div.
Hmm
Hmm
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$BTC
Give me this and I'll long to ATH - as long as ATH has not been tagged first.
Wicks to 95.5k are fine but needs to close back inside the FVG or ideally the range.
Give me this and I'll long to ATH - as long as ATH has not been tagged first.
Wicks to 95.5k are fine but needs to close back inside the FVG or ideally the range.
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Friend asked if I would short $BTC around these levels.
Considering we are so close to ATH I view this level as too much of a magnet that HTF shorts are out of the question.
Intraday ranges etc - ok to short ofc. This is just playing the standard rotations week to week, day to day.
But if I am to consider a short based on the daily timeframe, my A+ setup is as follows:
I want a candle to close above ATH.
- For the A+ trade, this is engulfed the next day
- For the A- trade, we consolidate first then close back lower
No close below the candle that takes us above ATH = no shorts. Simple as that.
If we had built less of an up only structure off the 74k lows, I'd be almost convinced we go to 125k next. But since we haven't had any retrace, I am preparing a scenario where we print a MMSM (market maker sell model).
Not banking on this scenario happening. I know what I'm doing if we get a true breakout. And in prior tweets stated that if we tag the weekly fvg before ATH, then I'm looking for longs.
Here is a TLDR of the scenarios I'm looking to trade just for consistency:
1. Tag Weekly FVG into 98-101k BEFORE ATH, look for longs targeting ATH and some.
2. Tag ATH before Weekly FVG:
a) If it is a sweep / rejection, then its very case dependant i.e. need LTF to confirm next move
b) if it is a daily close above ATH, look for a short if we daily close below the open of this candle
c) if there is no daily close below the open of the candle that takes us above ATH into a new >ATH close, then no shorts whatsoever.
d) If we spend time+space above ATH, don't close below the open of the candle that took us above ATH, will be looking for pull backs to get long targeting 125-130k
Thank you for attending my ted talk
Considering we are so close to ATH I view this level as too much of a magnet that HTF shorts are out of the question.
Intraday ranges etc - ok to short ofc. This is just playing the standard rotations week to week, day to day.
But if I am to consider a short based on the daily timeframe, my A+ setup is as follows:
I want a candle to close above ATH.
- For the A+ trade, this is engulfed the next day
- For the A- trade, we consolidate first then close back lower
No close below the candle that takes us above ATH = no shorts. Simple as that.
If we had built less of an up only structure off the 74k lows, I'd be almost convinced we go to 125k next. But since we haven't had any retrace, I am preparing a scenario where we print a MMSM (market maker sell model).
Not banking on this scenario happening. I know what I'm doing if we get a true breakout. And in prior tweets stated that if we tag the weekly fvg before ATH, then I'm looking for longs.
Here is a TLDR of the scenarios I'm looking to trade just for consistency:
1. Tag Weekly FVG into 98-101k BEFORE ATH, look for longs targeting ATH and some.
2. Tag ATH before Weekly FVG:
a) If it is a sweep / rejection, then its very case dependant i.e. need LTF to confirm next move
b) if it is a daily close above ATH, look for a short if we daily close below the open of this candle
c) if there is no daily close below the open of the candle that takes us above ATH into a new >ATH close, then no shorts whatsoever.
d) If we spend time+space above ATH, don't close below the open of the candle that took us above ATH, will be looking for pull backs to get long targeting 125-130k
Thank you for attending my ted talk
Traduzir
$BTC
Haven't looked at the charts much this week, had to be afk for most of it.
Set some alerts on these key levels. BTC notably stronger than alts here. Fine if we continue up, but I'd prefer to take out some downside liquidity first before looking for longs. Conversely if we take out levels to the upside and close back inside the range I think there is a case for shorts to be made.
Anyway, enjoy the weekend 🍻
Haven't looked at the charts much this week, had to be afk for most of it.
Set some alerts on these key levels. BTC notably stronger than alts here. Fine if we continue up, but I'd prefer to take out some downside liquidity first before looking for longs. Conversely if we take out levels to the upside and close back inside the range I think there is a case for shorts to be made.
Anyway, enjoy the weekend 🍻
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