bloomingbit

Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam is seeking control of at least three oil fields in Venezuela.
Bloomberg reported on Sept. 2, citing people familiar with the matter, that Ehrsam is pursuing control of more than three Venezuelan oil fields operated by Alborada Heavy Industries. The talks are being conducted through Primavera, a company he co-founded to invest in Venezuela.
The move comes as the U.S. government reshapes Venezuela's oil industry and seeks to replace some operators that have been active since the Maduro era with investors close to President Donald Trump's camp, Bloomberg said.
Ehrsam has already made several trips to Caracas to push the acquisition. Bloomberg reported in May that he met with senior U.S. and Venezuelan officials to review investments in oil and natural gas, as well as fintech.
The U.S. is also considering canceling existing operating contracts for those oil fields, the report said. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is scheduled to visit Caracas this week and unveil as many as 17 oil and natural gas agreements.

O Bitcoin subiu rapidamente de volta acima de US$ 80.000 em menos de três meses
As expectativas de regras formais de cripto apoiaram o sentimento
Uma votação em 15 de setembro pode definir o próximo trecho dos preços
O Bitcoin virou para cima desde meados de agosto, recuperando a faixa de 111 milhões de won pela primeira vez em quase três meses. A maior disposição ao risco após o Tesouro dos EUA anunciar recompras expandidas de títulos de longo prazo ajudou a direcionar a liquidez para ativos digitais e a impulsionar a alta. As expectativas de um arcabouço regulatório mais formal para criptomoedas também ajudaram a sustentar o sentimento. O destino do Clarity Act, um projeto de lei sobre estrutura de mercado de cripto em tramitação no Senado dos EUA, está surgindo como um fator-chave para o próximo movimento do Bitcoin.

As principais criptomoedas, incluindo o Bitcoin, foram negociadas em queda à medida que a aversão ao risco se espalhou após ataques aéreos dos EUA ao Irã.
A CoinDesk informou que o Bitcoin estava sendo negociado em torno de US$ 77.500 durante o horário asiático em 2 de setembro. O token caiu cerca de 1% nas últimas 24 horas, um recuo menor do que o de grandes altcoins como Solana e Tron.
As altcoins registraram perdas mais acentuadas. A Solana caiu mais de 3% para cerca de US$ 100, enquanto a Tron recuou mais de 3% para US$ 0,32. O Ether foi negociado perto de US$ 2.414, com baixa de 2%, e o XRP mudou de mãos por volta de US$ 1,35 após cair cerca de 2%. Dogecoin e Hyperliquid também caíram cerca de 2% e 1%, respectivamente. O BNB foi relativamente resiliente, com perda inferior a 1%.

U.S. spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds returned to net outflows after one day, with more than $200 million leaving the products.
U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $236.47 million on September 1, according to Trader T. That compared with net inflows of $216.7 million on August 31, the previous trading day.
BlackRock's IBIT led the outflows, shedding $201.18 million. Fidelity's FBTC also posted net outflows of $43.67 million.
Bitwise's BITB was the only major product to record inflows, adding $8.38 million. The remaining products posted no net flows.

O presidente Donald Trump disse que não está tentando forçar o Irã a ir à mesa de negociações e afirmou que os EUA têm quase controle total do Estreito de Ormuz.
Em uma postagem do Truth Social em 1º de setembro, Trump disse, em desacordo com uma reportagem da ABC News, que não está tentando levar o Irã para negociações. Ele acrescentou que não se importa se Teerã assinar um acordo que não tenha valor para ela.
"Eu muito prefiro a situação atual, em que tenho quase controle total do Estreito de Ormuz e a economia do Irã está colapsando completamente", escreveu Trump. "Eles simplesmente estão caminhando para um desfecho inevitável."

Principais acontecimentos econômicos de hoje
▶ 2 de setembro (quarta-feira): Índice de preços ao consumidor de agosto da Coreia do Sul (8h, horário da Coreia); Mudança no emprego não agrícola do ADP dos EUA em agosto (21h15, horário da Coreia); Decisão sobre taxa de juros do Canadá (22h45, horário da Coreia)
Principais eventos de criptomoedas de hoje
▶ 2 de setembro (quarta-feira): Hard fork do saldo da exchange ZIL

Ministros das Finanças do G20 e governadores de bancos centrais reconheceram formalmente que criptoativos têm potencial para apoiar o crescimento econômico e prometeram criar caminhos claros para a inovação responsável.
O idioma foi incluído na declaração de um país do G20 em uma cadeira, divulgada em 1º de setembro pelo secretário do Tesouro dos EUA, Scott Bessent. Ministros das Finanças e governadores de bancos centrais disseram que compartilhavam a visão de que criptoativos podem ajudar a apoiar o crescimento econômico.
A declaração também disse que o grupo vai trabalhar em conjunto para construir “caminhos claros” para a inovação responsável em criptoativos. O objetivo é usar criptoativos como uma ferramenta de inovação na economia e no sistema financeiro mais amplos, atualizando ao mesmo tempo o arcabouço institucional e regulatório relacionado.

O Bitcoin subiu cerca de 25% no mês passado, registrando seu melhor desempenho de agosto em nove anos.
Joel Kruger, estrategista de mercado do LMAX Group, disse ao The Block em 1º de setembro que o Bitcoin subiu cerca de 25% em agosto, seu melhor desempenho do mês desde 2017. Também foi o maior ganho mensal da criptomoeda desde novembro de 2024.
O Bitcoin manteve a maior parte desses ganhos após a alta. Ele foi negociado em torno de US$ 78.000 em 1º de setembro. A pressão sobre ativos de risco aumentou à medida que o conflito militar entre os EUA e o Irã voltou a se intensificar e o Brent subiu acima de US$ 90 por barril. Ainda assim, o Bitcoin não passou por uma correção acentuada.

O secretário do Tesouro, Scott Bessent, descartou preocupações com o mercado de títulos depois que as taxas dos Treasurys de longo prazo dos EUA subiram para os maiores níveis em anos, dizendo que as expectativas de inflação continuam bem ancoradas.
Falando em Asheville, Carolina do Norte, em 1º de setembro durante uma reunião de ministros das finanças do G20, Bessent disse à Fox Business que não vê os EUA em uma situação grave.
Ele disse que as expectativas de inflação permaneceram estáveis apesar da recente alta nas taxas dos Treasury. A economia dos EUA ainda registra um crescimento sólido e continua altamente competitiva em inteligência artificial, acrescentou. Em uma entrevista à Reuters um dia antes, Bessent também rejeitou descrever os movimentos recentes como turbulência no mercado de títulos.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced strong support for Japan’s monetary policy response to reverse yen weakness after meeting Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, bolstering expectations for a BOJ interest-rate increase on Sept. 18.
Bloomberg reported on Sept. 1 that the Treasury, disclosing details of the meeting, said Bessent “expressed strong support for Japan’s decisive market and monetary policy actions to address the yen’s substantial undervaluation.” The two met on Aug. 30 in Asheville, North Carolina, where they were attending a gathering of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors.
Bessent also said yen weakness was contributing to inflation pressure in Japan. The Treasury said he stressed the importance of setting monetary policy appropriately and communicating with markets to anchor inflation expectations and avoid excessive foreign-exchange volatility.
Markets took Bessent’s remarks as support for another BOJ rate increase. The probability of a Sept. 18 hike implied by the overnight index swap, or OIS, market rose to about 99% as of Sept. 1, more than double the level a month earlier.
Bessent has also recently signaled the need for further monetary policy action in Japan. In a CNBC interview on Aug. 31, he said he was confident the Japanese government and the BOJ would take steps that would lead to a stronger yen.
The meeting also drew attention because it came after the US and Japan made a rare joint intervention in the foreign-exchange market on July 31 to defend the yen. Bessent had previously said he looked forward to meeting Ueda after the coordinated intervention, signaling the possibility of follow-up action by the BOJ.
Still, the Japanese government has placed relatively greater emphasis on keeping borrowing costs low. That raises the possibility that Bessent’s support for a stronger yen and additional rate hikes could diverge from the policy stance of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
The BOJ is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on Sept. 18. Ueda is set to speak to reporters after the G20 meeting ends and explain the outcome of the gathering and related matters.

A public petition urging South Korea’s National Assembly to delay cryptocurrency taxation, currently set to take effect in 2027, by another two years has reached 48% of the support needed for review. A total of 24,052 people have signed the petition so far.
The National Assembly’s public petition website showed on Sept. 1 that 24,052 people had endorsed the petition, titled “Petition for a Two-Year Delay in Coin Taxation,” which was registered on Aug. 21. Signatures will be accepted through Sept. 20.
The petitioner argued that the government should push back crypto taxation by two years and first build out tax infrastructure for South Korea’s virtual-asset industry and individual investors.
The petition also cited the risk that investors and trading volume could move to overseas exchanges before the tax takes effect. That, it said, could cut revenue at domestic exchanges and reduce their corporate tax payments.
The petitioner argued that the fall in tax revenue caused by a contraction in the domestic industry could be larger than any increase in revenue from taxing crypto investment income.
“A delay does not mean taxes should not be collected,” the petitioner wrote. “After two years of improving the system and the industry, taxation should be implemented properly.”
Under the current schedule, taxes on crypto investment income are due to take effect in 2027. The petitioner said further improvements to the tax system and domestic market conditions are needed before implementation, given that investors would make their first filing and payment in May 2028.

Euro-zone consumer inflation accelerated in August to its highest level in three years, strengthening the case for another European Central Bank interest-rate increase.
Data released by the European Union’s statistics office on September 1 showed the euro zone’s consumer price index rose 3.3% from a year earlier in August. That was up from 2.9% in July and marked the highest level since September 2023. The reading matched market expectations.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, slowed to 2.4%. Services inflation also eased to 3%.
Rising energy costs amid recent tensions with Iran, combined with a more resilient-than-expected euro-zone economy, have led markets to assign a higher probability to a 25-basis-point increase in the ECB’s key rate on September 10. Financial markets have already largely priced in that move.
Among member states, Italy’s inflation rate rose to 3.2% from 2.9%, while Spain’s climbed to 4.5%. Germany and France also recorded faster price growth in August.
Some ECB officials have also signaled the need for further tightening. The ECB’s deposit rate stands at 2.25%, and Chief Economist Philip Lane has previously put the upper end of the neutral-rate range at about 2.5%.
Still, the slowdown in core inflation has also fueled expectations that tightening may not proceed as quickly as markets anticipate. Analysts also say that if the energy-price shock persists, the prospect of another rate increase later this year could return to the agenda.

South Korea’s Financial Services Commission is pushing a plan to cap stakes held by major shareholders in cryptocurrency exchanges despite conducting no related legal review or advisory work over the past five years.
Edaily reported on September 1 that the commission disclosed the absence of any internal or external legal reviews or advisory records in audit materials submitted to Rep. Park Min-kyu of the National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee. It also provided no separate records of related research projects or consultations with other government agencies.
The commission is reviewing a provision for the government’s draft Digital Asset Basic Act that would, in principle, limit stake ownership by major shareholders of virtual asset businesses to 20%. An exception allowing holdings of up to 34% for companies that meet certain requirements is also under discussion.
A proposal to restrict voting rights attached to shares held above the ownership cap is also being reviewed, Edaily reported. The commission said details, including the ceiling on major shareholders’ stakes, have not been finalized.
The National Assembly Research Service previously said requiring existing major shareholders to dispose of their holdings or accept limits on voting rights could raise legal issues involving constitutional property rights, freedom of occupation and business activity, and the principle barring retroactive legislation.
The government is set to submit its draft of the Digital Asset Basic Act this month to Rep. Yoo Dong-soo, the Democratic Party lawmaker who chairs the National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee. Curbs on major shareholders’ stakes in crypto exchanges have emerged as one of the main issues in drafting the bill.

O Bitcoin se recuperou após um aperto de vendas, mas a venda por detentores de longo prazo também aumentou acentuadamente, de acordo com uma análise on-chain.
Em um boletim informativo publicado em 1º de setembro, o analista de dados on-chain Axel Adler Jr. escreveu que o volume de distribuição de 30 dias por detentores de longo prazo do Bitcoin subiu 61,5%, para 281.900 BTC em 28 de agosto, ante 174.500 BTC em 18 de agosto. Isso marcou o nível mais alto do ano.
O salto no preço aumentou a lucratividade para detentores de longo prazo, criando condições mais favoráveis para realização de lucros. A razão MVRV dos detentores de longo prazo subiu para 1,64 em 27 de agosto, ante 1,31 em 18 de agosto, e foi de 1,60 em 31 de agosto.

10-year yield tops 3% for first time in three decades
Bill comes due for ‘aggressive fiscal policy’
“I can no longer trust the Takaiichi administration’s fiscal policy.”
Japan’s benchmark long-term borrowing cost rose above 3% for the first time in 30 years as expectations for additional Bank of Japan rate hikes combined with concern over US monetary tightening and growing market unease about Prime Minister Sanae Takaiichi’s aggressive fiscal expansion. With debt-servicing costs rising sharply, the government’s room to pursue tax cuts and higher spending is set to narrow.
In Tokyo bond trading on Sept. 1, the yield on newly issued 10-year Japanese government bonds rose as much as 6 basis points from the previous day to 3.000%. Japan’s 10-year yield has not traded at 3% since September 1996. It reached as high as 2.950% intraday a day earlier, also the highest level in 30 years.
When Takaiichi took office in October 2025, the 10-year yield was in the 1.6% range. In less than a year, it has nearly doubled. Global inflation pressure tied to instability in the Middle East has also contributed, but Japan’s yields are rising faster than those in the US and major European economies, market participants say.
A 10-year government bond auction conducted by Japan’s Ministry of Finance on Sept. 1 also drew weak demand. The lowest accepted price came in below market expectations, while the highest accepted yield rose into the 3% range for the first time since 1996. The result underscored waning appetite for Japanese government debt.
One of the immediate drivers is growing speculation that the BOJ will raise rates again. Expectations for another increase have climbed quickly since the US and Japanese governments jointly intervened in late July to buy yen.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Aug. 31 that he believes the Japanese government and the BOJ will take steps that lead to a stronger yen. Markets interpreted the remarks as a call for the BOJ to tighten further.
The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 17-18. Overnight index swaps are pricing in more than a 90% chance of a rate increase that month. Investors are also increasingly betting on another move in December, which would leave the terminal policy rate above earlier expectations.
Pressure on yields has also intensified in the US. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at last month’s Jackson Hole symposium that if policymakers cannot be confident inflation is easing, “there is work to do.” Markets took that as a hawkish signal that kept the possibility of another rate increase alive. Higher Treasury yields added to selling pressure on Japanese bonds.
Still, markets are reacting even more sharply to Takaiichi’s fiscal expansion. Her government has championed what it calls “responsible aggressive fiscal policy,” centered on large-scale growth investment and tax cuts. In July, it adopted a growth strategy calling for more than 370 trillion yen in combined public and private investment across 17 strategic sectors by 2040. Last month, it also decided to temporarily cut the consumption tax on food to 1% for two years starting in April 2027.
What remains unclear is how those measures will be funded. Preliminary budget requests for fiscal 2027, submitted at the end of August, swelled to about 143 trillion yen in the general account, partly because a new growth-investment category was created without a spending cap. That would mark a record. Additional increases in defense spending are also expected by year-end.
Takaiichi has also revised the government’s fiscal framework. Instead of sticking with the previous target of bringing the combined primary balance of the central and local governments into annual surplus, she has said the focus will shift to steadily lowering the ratio of outstanding government debt to gross domestic product.
The government says it will reduce reliance on supplementary budgets and hold new bond issuance below the previous year’s level. When Takaiichi announced the consumption-tax cut on Aug. 5, she said the administration had managed fiscal policy with full consideration for sustainability and market confidence.
Markets have remained unconvinced. In July, a draft of the government’s annual basic policy on economic and fiscal management and reform, known as the Honebuto policy, dropped the phrase “fiscal consolidation.” That triggered a surge in bond yields in what markets dubbed the “Honebuto shock.” Takaiichi later said she did not believe she was the cause, but the climb in yields has continued.
With long-term rates now at 3%, the fiscal burden on the Takaiichi government is poised to rise further. Higher yields increase interest costs on both newly issued bonds and refinancing debt, leaving less room for tax cuts, growth investment and a bigger defense budget.
Japan’s long-term rates trended lower for years after the collapse of the asset bubble, alongside deflation. They fell further after the BOJ launched massive quantitative and qualitative easing in 2013, including large-scale government bond purchases, and reached minus 0.3% in 2016. The trend reversed after policy normalization began in 2024 with the end of negative interest rates and the scrapping of yield curve control.
Markets view the break above 3% as both a sign that Japan is emerging from deflation and normalizing monetary policy, and a warning from the bond market over fiscal expansion. With further BOJ rate hikes also in sight, the path of yields will depend on how convincingly the Takaiichi government can identify funding sources for measures such as the food tax cut and higher defense spending.
Choi Man-su, Tokyo correspondent, Korea Economic Daily, bebop@hankyung.com

O Bitcoin estabilizou-se perto de US$ 78.000 após disparar 24% em agosto, com preços do petróleo mais altos e rendimentos crescentes dos Treasuries dos EUA limitando novos ganhos.
A CoinDesk informou em 1º de setembro que o Bitcoin era negociado pouco acima de US$ 78.400 durante o horário asiático. Ele oscilou entre US$ 77.200 e US$ 79.200 nas últimas 24 horas, mostrando volatilidade limitada. O Bitcoin subiu 24% em agosto, seu maior ganho mensal desde novembro de 2024.
As principais altcoins ficaram majoritariamente mais fracas. O Ether foi negociado ligeiramente acima de US$ 2.440, enquanto a Solana recuou cerca de 1% para perto de US$ 104. A XRP mudou de mãos abaixo de US$ 1,40, e a BNB foi negociada em torno de US$ 693. O token HYPE da Hyperliquid foi a exceção, subindo cerca de 4% para perto de US$ 84.

U.S. spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew more than $200 million in net inflows after just one trading day.
Farside Investors data released on September 1 showed U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $216.7 million in the previous session. That marked a return to net inflows after one trading day of outflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the gains with $205.9 million in inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC took in $6.9 million, while Bitwise’s BITB added $4.3 million.
MSTB and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) posted net inflows of $3.6 million and $9.4 million, respectively. VanEck’s HODL, by contrast, had $13.4 million in outflows. The remaining products saw no net flows.

Private event to be held Sept. 28 at the Westin Seoul Parnas
Key digital-asset and stablecoin issues on the agenda
Senior officials to join closed-door talks
Franklin Templeton, with about $1.8 trillion in assets under management
a16z, one of the world’s largest venture capital firms
Stablecoin leaders Tether and Circle
Senior global digital-asset executives to convene
Political figures including Democratic Party lawmaker Min Byung-duk and Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok
Major financial firms including KB, Shinhan, Hana, Woori and Mirae Asset
Top executives from leading fintech firms including Kakao Pay and Toss to attend
Senior executives from institutions shaping the global digital-asset market — including Franklin Templeton, which manages about $1.8 trillion, Andreessen Horowitz’s a16z, and stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle — will gather privately in Seoul. The occasion is EastPoint: Seoul 2026, billed as South Korea’s largest private digital-asset conference.
The event will be held Sept. 28 at the Westin Seoul Parnas in Seoul’s Samseong-dong. It is jointly hosted by venture capital firm Hashed, digital-asset media outlet Bloomingbit and the Korea Economic Daily. This year marks the event’s second edition.
More than 200 institutions and 503 decision-makers attended last year’s conference. This year, a select group of policymakers, global institutions and Web3 leaders will discuss South Korea’s developing digital-asset market and the broader trend of institutional adoption.
EastPoint on Sept. 24 unveiled its first group of speakers and participating companies for the 2026 event. The initial lineup includes Chetan Karkhanis, senior vice president at Franklin Templeton, and Guy Wuollet, general partner at a16z Crypto.
Other speakers include Harry Jung, former deputy director of the White House Digital Assets Advisory Council; Caroline Pham, chief executive officer of MoonPay Institutional and former acting chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission; and Kirk Cullimore, Utah Senate majority leader. The attendee list also includes Ryo Kato, senior executive vice president at SBI Holdings and chief executive officer of HashHub, and Wai Lum Kwok, senior executive director for authorization and fintech at Abu Dhabi Global Market.
Global stablecoin and digital-asset firms including Tether and Circle will also attend. Speakers include David Katz, vice president for strategy and policy in Asia-Pacific at Circle; Francesco Fabbri, head of tokenization expansion at Tether; Yuval Rooz, chief executive officer of Canton Network; Joseph Lubin, founder of Consensys and co-founder of Ethereum; Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom; and Hong Kim, chief technology officer at Bitwise. Senior executives from Coinbase, Ripple and custody firm BitGo are also due to attend.
From South Korean politics, speakers will include Min Byung-duk of the Democratic Party, Ahn Do-geol, floor deputy leader of the Democratic Party, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party. From the domestic securities and fintech industries, senior officials from Mirae Asset Securities, NH Investment & Securities, Meritz Securities, Eugene Investment & Securities and Toss will attend. Executives from the card and asset-management sectors, including Visa, Samsung Card, Hyundai Card, BC Card, Mirae Asset Global Investments, KB Asset Management, Shinhan Asset Management and Hana Asset Management, also plan to join the event.
Sponsors for EastPoint: Seoul 2026 include Tether, Circle, MoonPay, Presto, Ondo Finance, Limitless, BitGo, Anchorage Digital, Plume Network, Optimism, Injective, Talos and the ADI Foundation. South Korea-based companies including Kakao Pay, SOOHO.IO, D'CENT and Kaia are also sponsors. Bitman is participating as a community partner. Official research partners include Hashed Open Research, Tiger Research and Four Pillars.
This year’s EastPoint will focus on five main themes: the start of the institutional investment era, the evolution of stablecoins, the tokenization of capital markets onchain, the era of AI agents and blockchain adoption in everyday life. Compared with last year, the agenda expands to include AI agents, real-world assets and stablecoins. As in the inaugural event, the conference will use a dual-track format combining a main stage with private roundtables.
At the first EastPoint last year, more than 200 institutions and 503 decision-makers took part. The event hosted more than 50 business meetings and more than 40 private roundtables. Lawmakers from the Democratic Party, the People Power Party and the Reform Party attended alongside policy leaders from South Korea and abroad, including officials from the White House and the CFTC, for discussions on digital-asset regulation and policy direction.
“Stablecoins and asset tokenization have moved through years of experimentation and are now part of the real market,” Hashed Chief Executive Officer Simon Seojoon Kim said. “The question now is no longer whether they are possible, but which business models and institutions can endure over time.”
EastPoint is a venue where the people building markets and the people designing institutions gather in Seoul to find those answers together, Kim added.
“EastPoint brings together top decision-makers from global institutions, policy circles and capital markets for in-depth discussions on the digital-asset industry’s most important issues,” Bloomingbit Chief Executive Officer Kim San-ha said. “Even the release of the first speaker lineup, participating institutions and main themes offers a sense of how substantive this year’s conversations will be.”
He added that attendees would be able to see firsthand the value EastPoint can create, including through future additions to the lineup and participants yet to be disclosed.

Concerns over the US fiscal deficit, a surge in corporate bond issuance and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy have kept the 30-year Treasury yield above 5% for the longest stretch since 2006.
Bloomberg reported on August 31 that the US 30-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.34% in mid-August, the highest since 2007. That was just 0.10 percentage point below its highest level of the past 22 years. Through August 31, the 30-year yield had traded above 5% on 55 days this year, the most since 2006. The yield was around 5.27% on September 1.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced last month an expansion of existing Treasury buybacks to help lower long-term yields. Investors, however, see the effect as limited. A record volume of corporate bonds was issued last month, and roughly $215 billion of new corporate bond sales is expected in September. Concerns over the US government's large fiscal deficit have also persisted.
John Briggs, Natixis's head of North America US rates strategy, said long-term yields could remain elevated until welfare reforms are enacted that can change the structure of the fiscal deficit. Treasury buybacks are negligible relative to the size of the broader market, he added.
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15-16 is another key variable for long-term yields. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at last week's Jackson Hole economic symposium, markets priced in about 0.17 percentage point of tightening at the September meeting. That implies roughly a 70% chance of a quarter-point rate increase.
Long-dated Treasuries are relatively sensitive to inflation expectations. If price pressures are reaffirmed in the August jobs report due on September 4 and a key inflation reading scheduled for September 11, and the Fed still leaves rates unchanged, the 30-year bond could face additional selling. In the US Treasury options market, some trades have already bet on the 30-year yield rising to about 5.7% by November 20.
Bank of America rate strategists Meghan Swiber and Eleanor Xiao said investors remain reluctant to extend duration despite Treasury buybacks and recent policy steps. Outside insurers and pension funds, key buyers of long-term Treasuries, many bond managers tend to limit holdings of longer-dated debt to reduce sensitivity to rate volatility.
Still, some investors believe the 30-year yield may be nearing a peak after already rising about 0.65 percentage point from this year's low. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said Treasury buybacks may offer some support for demand for long-term government bonds, but heavy debt supply tied to AI infrastructure investment could outweigh that effect. Long-term yields may be nearing a peak, she said, but uncertainty remains because multiple factors are acting at once.

Principais acontecimentos económicos de hoje
▶︎ Terça-feira, 1º de setembro: △ Balança comercial preliminar de agosto da Coreia do Sul (9h, horário da Coreia) △ Índice preliminar de preços ao consumidor da União Europeia para agosto (18h, horário da Coreia) △ Índice de gestores de compras (PMI) de manufatura de agosto dos EUA (22h45, horário da Coreia) △ Índice de manufatura ISM de agosto dos EUA (23h, horário da Coreia) △ Pesquisa de Abertura de Vagas de Emprego e Rotatividade de Mão de Obra (JOLTS) de julho dos EUA (23h, horário da Coreia)
Principais acontecimentos sobre criptomoedas de hoje
▶︎ Terça-feira, 1º de setembro: △ Expiração do mandato do comitê da ADA e prazo final para votação de parâmetros △ Recompra de tokens VSN