Bitcoin traded near $91,219 on January 4, 2025, while derivatives markets showed heightened activity rather than caution. Futures and options positioning across major venues indicate sustained engagement, with open interest near cycle highs and options exposure concentrated around key strike levels.
Futures Positioning Remains Elevated
According to Coinglass data, aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $58.74 billion, representing approximately 643,670 BTC in outstanding contracts. Open interest increased 3.99% over the past 24 hours, suggesting fresh positioning rather than broad deleveraging. Short-term changes remain measured, pointing to deliberate exposure increases instead of panic-driven trades.
Binance leads futures markets by notional open interest at $11.90 billion (just over 20% market share), followed by CME at $9.80 billion, reinforcing its institutional dominance. Bybit and Gate each exceed $5 billion, while OKX holds $3.64 billion.
Short-term flows are mixed. CME, Binance, and OKX recorded modest pullbacks in recent hours, while Bybit, Gate, and MEXC posted stronger 24-hour gains—indicating speculative interest is shifting venues rather than exiting the market.
On a broader timeframe, futures open interest has expanded significantly since mid-2024 and remains historically elevated even through recent consolidation. This persistence suggests leverage has not been meaningfully flushed out, leaving the market sensitive to sharp moves in either direction.
Options Markets Tilt Bullish, but Hedged
Bitcoin options positioning reflects a similarly crowded landscape. Total options open interest continues to rise, with calls accounting for 56.88% (172,616 BTC) versus puts at 43.12% (130,848 BTC). Trading volume over the past 24 hours maintains this skew, as call activity again outpaces puts.
Deribit remains the dominant options venue. The largest single position is the
$BTC -30JAN26-100000-C contract, holding 8,806 BTC. Significant open interest is also concentrated across January and March expiries, with strikes ranging between $80,000 and $110,000. Volume data shows active rotation in near-term January contracts on both sides, signaling repositioning rather than risk reduction.
Max Pain Below Spot
Across major options platforms, max pain levels cluster below current spot prices. On Deribit, max pain for several upcoming expiries sits near $90,000, with Binance and OKX showing similar profiles. In each case, the highest notional concentrations lie just beneath spot, creating a gravitational zone where options writers would experience minimal payouts.
January and March expiries carry the heaviest notional exposure, reinforcing expectations of elevated volatility without a decisive near-term directional consensus.
Market Takeaway
Overall, Bitcoin’s derivatives market appears crowded but orderly. Futures traders continue to add exposure incrementally, while options markets remain skewed toward upside participation, supported by hedging below spot. With open interest elevated and max pain positioned under $91,000, the next significant move may hinge less on conviction and more on which side yields first.
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