China’s copper smelters are making more money from acid than copper — but that may not last.
After drone strikes hit Russia’s Astrakhan gas plant, global sulphur supply tightened, sending sulphuric acid prices in China up nearly 500% in 2.5 years. For many smelters, this byproduct suddenly became the main profit engine.
Example: Yunnan Copper generated about a quarter of its gross profit from sulphuric acid last year — even though it accounts for only ~1% of revenue. Meanwhile, traditional treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) fell below zero as too many smelters compete for limited copper concentrate.
Why acid demand surged:
• Tight global sulphur supply
• Zambia export restrictions
• Growing demand from nickel mining & LFP battery supply chains
• China relying on ~40% imported sulphur
But here’s the risk 👇
Analysts expect acid prices to drop 10–30% as new supply comes online and Beijing caps exports to protect domestic fertiliser demand. If acid prices fall while TC/RCs stay weak, smelter margins could get squeezed fast.
Bottom line:
China’s smelters are riding an acid-driven windfall — but dependence on a volatile byproduct market makes the setup fragile. If acid cools off, production cuts could follow.
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