Wall Street's FOMC Debut: Are Rate Cuts Really Delayed Until 2027?
Tonight, Wall will speak, marking the most significant central bank address of the year.
Four hard signals are already on the table ⬇️
- FOMC is leaning towards removing rate cut hints, the signal light has changed from green to red.
- Dot plot is expected to raise inflation forecasts, pushing the rate cut timeline to 2027.
- Federal funds futures: over 80% probability of rate hikes this year, it's not about not cutting, but possibly needing to raise further.
- Wall has previously questioned the forward guidance of the dot plot, possibly to leave himself some policy flexibility.
His real dilemma: Triple pressure squeezing at once.
- Core inflation is stubborn, looking ugly even after stripping out energy → Hawks have plenty of arguments.
- US-Iran deal + falling oil prices → This has given a dovish escape route.
- Trump continues to call for rate cuts → This is a line that absolutely cannot be crossed; otherwise, the bond market will punish a central bank that loses its independence with sell-offs.
💡 It's hard to expect true dovish signals tonight.
The most likely outcome: structurally hawkish, with wording that leaves room for maneuver.
Currently, $BTC has pulled back from a high of $66966 to $65740, the pre-drop has already happened halfway, and the market is pricing in a hawkish expectation.
☝️ Tonight, keep an eye on three things:
1. Whether the wording truly removes rate cut hints.
2. Whether the median in the dot plot falls in 2026 or 2027.
3. How to respond to Trump's pressure for rate cuts, the moment that tests independence the most.
DYOR, not investment advice.
#FOMC会议 #沃什
Tonight, Wall will speak, marking the most significant central bank address of the year.
Four hard signals are already on the table ⬇️
- FOMC is leaning towards removing rate cut hints, the signal light has changed from green to red.
- Dot plot is expected to raise inflation forecasts, pushing the rate cut timeline to 2027.
- Federal funds futures: over 80% probability of rate hikes this year, it's not about not cutting, but possibly needing to raise further.
- Wall has previously questioned the forward guidance of the dot plot, possibly to leave himself some policy flexibility.
His real dilemma: Triple pressure squeezing at once.
- Core inflation is stubborn, looking ugly even after stripping out energy → Hawks have plenty of arguments.
- US-Iran deal + falling oil prices → This has given a dovish escape route.
- Trump continues to call for rate cuts → This is a line that absolutely cannot be crossed; otherwise, the bond market will punish a central bank that loses its independence with sell-offs.
💡 It's hard to expect true dovish signals tonight.
The most likely outcome: structurally hawkish, with wording that leaves room for maneuver.
Currently, $BTC has pulled back from a high of $66966 to $65740, the pre-drop has already happened halfway, and the market is pricing in a hawkish expectation.
☝️ Tonight, keep an eye on three things:
1. Whether the wording truly removes rate cut hints.
2. Whether the median in the dot plot falls in 2026 or 2027.
3. How to respond to Trump's pressure for rate cuts, the moment that tests independence the most.
DYOR, not investment advice.
#FOMC会议 #沃什