This week's macro triple play: Walsh's debut + USD/JPY rate dual resolutions
The US-Iran deal sets a bullish tone, but the real test comes with a back-to-back explosion within 48 hours
① Walsh's debut: June 17
98.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged, no surprise there
The suspense is in how he communicates; every word from the new chairman will be over-analyzed by the market. Need more data vs. encouraging inflation path, the impact on risk assets could swing by 5-8%
② Bank of Japan: June 16, carry trade bomb
Reports suggest the BoJ is considering further rate hikes, just a day before the FOMC meeting
The chain is clear: Yen rate hike → Yen appreciation → carry trade unwinding → global risk asset sell-off
The 2025 yen earthquake, $BTC -15% in one day; the trigger wasn't that big, but the heavy carry positions amplified the impact
How heavy are the carry positions this time? We'll find out tomorrow
③ Long end of US Treasuries: The US-Iran easing is just a discount
Long-end yields are still near a 19-year high; the drop in oil prices is a real positive, but the fundamental pressures from the fiscal deficit and labor market remain unchanged
Whether long-end rates can materially drop depends on Walsh's signals, not on the US-Iran deal
If all three go smoothly: $BTC target $70K+
If any one of them goes sideways: US-Iran bullish tone could quickly unwind
The US-Iran deal is the biggest macro package this year, but there are three doors before the package
Maintain position flexibility over the next 48 hours; it's not caution, it's respecting the variables
#美债股市齐涨 #日本央行明日预计加息至1%
DYOR not investment advice $BTC
The US-Iran deal sets a bullish tone, but the real test comes with a back-to-back explosion within 48 hours
① Walsh's debut: June 17
98.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged, no surprise there
The suspense is in how he communicates; every word from the new chairman will be over-analyzed by the market. Need more data vs. encouraging inflation path, the impact on risk assets could swing by 5-8%
② Bank of Japan: June 16, carry trade bomb
Reports suggest the BoJ is considering further rate hikes, just a day before the FOMC meeting
The chain is clear: Yen rate hike → Yen appreciation → carry trade unwinding → global risk asset sell-off
The 2025 yen earthquake, $BTC -15% in one day; the trigger wasn't that big, but the heavy carry positions amplified the impact
How heavy are the carry positions this time? We'll find out tomorrow
③ Long end of US Treasuries: The US-Iran easing is just a discount
Long-end yields are still near a 19-year high; the drop in oil prices is a real positive, but the fundamental pressures from the fiscal deficit and labor market remain unchanged
Whether long-end rates can materially drop depends on Walsh's signals, not on the US-Iran deal
If all three go smoothly: $BTC target $70K+
If any one of them goes sideways: US-Iran bullish tone could quickly unwind
The US-Iran deal is the biggest macro package this year, but there are three doors before the package
Maintain position flexibility over the next 48 hours; it's not caution, it's respecting the variables
#美债股市齐涨 #日本央行明日预计加息至1%
DYOR not investment advice $BTC