US-Iran Situation: Trump Pulls a TACO
From major strikes to 'war' ending in less than 24 hours
Yesterday: 'We will launch the largest strike ever against Iran'
Today: 'The US-Iran war is over, handshake all around'
Just a nap in between
What traders did last night:
- Bought gold ✅
- Bought oil ✅
- Bought defensive stocks ✅
- Took one last look at their accounts before bed, feeling secure ✅
What traders woke up to this morning:
- Gold down
- Oil down 4.6%
- Nasdaq +2.5%
- Account: 💀
This script is pretty well known in the industry, called 'TACO':
Trump Always Chickens Out
The process is as standardized as McDonald's:
Step 1: Tweet threats, must sound the largest/incomparable/no mercy
Step 2: Market goes wild, gold and oil skyrocket
Step 3: Sign an MoU, declare ~ I won ~
Step 4: Move on to the next topic
The whole process closes in under 24 hours, faster than overnight settlements
The only issue is Iran's Foreign Ministry hasn't received the script
Official response: 'Final conclusions have not been reached'
So the current situation is:
- Trump says: the war is over
- The market says: believed it, oil down 4%
- Iran says: ...... let's talk more
Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: silent
Is the market's reaction today correct?
Brent dips below $100, Nasdaq +2.5%, semiconductors +8%, this is standard pricing for de-escalated geopolitical risk
But the agreement hasn't been finalized, Iran's Foreign Ministry is still saying no conclusions
In trading terms, the market has priced in a 100% probability of an outcome that still has a 20% uncertainty
This could either be smart front-running or the setup for the next TACO
Historical experience tells us:
Those who trade alongside TACO either feast or become the feast
DYOR not investment advice
#特朗普 #美伊
From major strikes to 'war' ending in less than 24 hours
Yesterday: 'We will launch the largest strike ever against Iran'
Today: 'The US-Iran war is over, handshake all around'
Just a nap in between
What traders did last night:
- Bought gold ✅
- Bought oil ✅
- Bought defensive stocks ✅
- Took one last look at their accounts before bed, feeling secure ✅
What traders woke up to this morning:
- Gold down
- Oil down 4.6%
- Nasdaq +2.5%
- Account: 💀
This script is pretty well known in the industry, called 'TACO':
Trump Always Chickens Out
The process is as standardized as McDonald's:
Step 1: Tweet threats, must sound the largest/incomparable/no mercy
Step 2: Market goes wild, gold and oil skyrocket
Step 3: Sign an MoU, declare ~ I won ~
Step 4: Move on to the next topic
The whole process closes in under 24 hours, faster than overnight settlements
The only issue is Iran's Foreign Ministry hasn't received the script
Official response: 'Final conclusions have not been reached'
So the current situation is:
- Trump says: the war is over
- The market says: believed it, oil down 4%
- Iran says: ...... let's talk more
Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: silent
Is the market's reaction today correct?
Brent dips below $100, Nasdaq +2.5%, semiconductors +8%, this is standard pricing for de-escalated geopolitical risk
But the agreement hasn't been finalized, Iran's Foreign Ministry is still saying no conclusions
In trading terms, the market has priced in a 100% probability of an outcome that still has a 20% uncertainty
This could either be smart front-running or the setup for the next TACO
Historical experience tells us:
Those who trade alongside TACO either feast or become the feast
DYOR not investment advice
#特朗普 #美伊