(Return on Investment) untuk siklus BTC 📊. Mari kita bahas:
📌 Kesimpulan Chart Post-Halving ROI
1. Pola Siklus Halving
Setiap halving (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) → harga BTC cenderung naik tajam dalam 12–18 bulan setelahnya.
Puncak ROI biasanya terjadi ~500–550 hari setelah halving → sesuai dengan bullrun besar.
2. Siklus Saat Ini (Cycle 4 / 2024–2025)
Chart menunjukkan kita sedang berada di fase pertumbuhan setelah halving 2024.
Saat ini ROI belum mencapai puncak → artinya bullrun belum selesai.
Kalau mengikuti siklus sebelumnya:
Puncak potensial = Q4 2025 – awal 2026.
ROI bisa tembus 800%–1600% dari harga halving (sekitar $30K).
Target harga BTC = $120K – $180K (sesuai proyeksi historis).
3. 30-Day Correction
Di tiap siklus ada koreksi besar ±30 hari sebelum lanjut ke puncak.
Siklus sekarang juga bisa alami koreksi jangka pendek (20–30%), tapi tren makro tetap bullish.
⚖️ Dampak ke Market
✅ Positif
Jangka Menengah (2025) → tren masih bullish karena kita masih dalam pola siklus “post-halving rally”.
Altseason cenderung aktif setelah BTC stabil → artinya altcoin punya peluang besar naik Q3–Q4 2025.
Smart money & institusi makin yakin → arus dana terus masuk.
⚠️ Negatif
Koreksi 20–30% sangat mungkin terjadi sebelum puncak.
Retail bisa panik kalau koreksi datang, padahal itu bagian normal dari siklus.
Jika terlalu banyak leverage, koreksi bisa memicu long squeeze.
🎯 Strategi
Jangka Pendek (1–3 bulan): Antisipasi koreksi 20–30% → gunakan untuk entry spot DCA, jangan all-in.
Jangka Menengah (6–9 bulan / sisa 2025):
Fokus hold BTC & ETH.
Masuk altcoin saat BTC dominasi melemah (tanda altseason).
Ambil profit bertahap di setiap kenaikan signifikan.
Jangka Panjang (2026):
Exit mayoritas posisi saat BTC mendekati puncak ROI (indikator: retail euforia, media mainstream hype, funding rate ekstrem).
Simpan hanya sebagian kecil BTC/ETH untuk jangka panjang.
🔑 Ringkasan:
Chart ini menegaskan bahwa kita masih di tengah bullrun siklus 2024–2025. Dampaknya ke market → tren besar tetap bullish.
🚀KEY TO BTC BULLISH : US INTEREST RATE CUT!!
But why hasn’t it gone down yet? 🤭
The key for BTC to rise in 2025 and reach a new ATH is a Fed Rate / interest rate cut.
But Interest Rates Haven’t Dropped Yet—Why?
Let me explain in simple words so you’ll get it.
🏛️Powell said The Fed is taking a “wait-and-see” approach because the latest inflation data such as CPI and PPI releases still don’t show significant improvement.
This is the main reason The Fed is holding rates.
🙊The Trump administration has criticized and pressured Jerome Powell many times, but Powell stood firm and kept interest rates at 4.25%.
The Fed works independently, so the President can’t fire him.
🚩On August 22, Jerome Powell will attend the Jackson Hole Symposium.
This is an annual event that brings together central bank governors, finance ministers, top economists, academics, and market participants.
The focus is on big issues in monetary policy, financial stability, inflation, and economic growth.
So this symposium has a huge impact on the market.
It’s a highly anticipated moment for all market players,
as they’re looking for clues about The Fed’s policy on interest rates.
✅My personal opinion about this:
Objectively speaking,
looking at Powell’s very prudent and cautious character,
and also last week’s CPI and PPI data,
it seems likely Powell will keep rates at 4.25% - 4.5%.
I don’t think Powell will dare to cut rates in September.
✍️BTC will probably keep moving sideways until the end of the year—only 4 months left—
and it might be tough to reach the $140–150k level this year.
What do you think guys...
Let me know your thoughts on the comments
#PowellSpeech #PowellWatch #BTC #bullish
@solayer_labs
#BuiltonSolayer $LAYER
Solayer menghadirkan revolusi Layer-1: devnet >100 K TPS, roadmap menuju 1 juta TPS, tanpa MEV, bridging 1-detik finalitas, dan produk nyata seperti Emerald Card serta sUSD/sSOL. Ini bukan sekadar blockchain — ini pengalaman Web3 tanpa gesekan.
Pro:
• Kecepatan ekstrem & adil
• Hardware-accelerated, InfiniSVM, mega-sequencer
• Produk nyata (Emerald Card, stablecoin)
• Integrasi Binance & ekosistem besar
Cons:
• Kompetisi L1 sangat ketat
• Teknologi baru punya risiko adopsi
• Sentimen harga masih fluktuatif, banyak prediksi bearish
• Prediksi harga sangat beragam
🔮 Insight ke depan:
Vokal ke 2028: Solayer ingin menjadi lapisan eksekusi tak terlihat Web3—instan, lintas rantai, seamless. Produk nyata memperkuat utilitas, dan listing di Binance + restaking di Solana membuka jalur adopsi luas.
📈 Harga kini: sekitar $0,60–0,61
• CoinCodex: potensi turun ke ~$0,44
• Coin Edition: target bullish hingga ~$6,50 akhir 2025
• BeInCrypto: kisaran $0,59–3,28 (avg ~$1,09)
• Binance Consensus: 5-tahun ~ $0,79; 2026 ~ $0,65; 2030 ~ $0,79
• Bitscreener: 2025 range ~$0,48–3,39; long term hingga ~$6+
Disclaimer: Bukan nasihat keuangan. Lakukan riset sendiri.
Trillions-dollar Narrative!
Feels like we’re stepping into a stablecoin super cycle. Retail’s jumping in quick, and VCs are throwing big money at payments and stablecoin projects.
And it’s not just crypto folks anymore. Since late 2024, Web2 companies and even traditional banks have started getting involved. At the same time, regulations in big markets are getting clearer, which cuts the uncertainty and opens up real room to grow.
But adoption won’t happen just because there’s liquidity or clear rules. Institutions are picky. They want more than just speed, cheap fees, and compliance written on paper. They also need an infrastructure that connects smoothly to existing systems and can actually scale when it’s needed.
That’s where most blockchains stumble. Some crash under heavy traffic. Others see fees spike out of nowhere. And a lot of them weren’t even built with compliance in mind from the start.
Algorand’s different. It’s one of the few chains aligned with ISO 20022, the same global standard banks and payment networks already use. Plus, it’s been running for over six years with zero downtime, always-low fees, and instant finality.
Berikut hasil simulasi dampak BTC terhadap ETH & Altcoin (Agustus – Desember 2025):
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🚀 Skenario Bullish
BTC: dari $115K → $145K
ETH: dari $4.300 → $8.000 (nyaris 2x lipat)
Altcoin Index: dari x1 → x5 (potensi 100–400%+ untuk altcoin & memecoin tertentu)
➡ Kondisi ini identik dengan altseason besar di akhir 2025, di mana banyak koin kecil bisa 50–100x.
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📉 Skenario Bearish
BTC: dari $115K → $95K
ETH: dari $4.300 → $2.700
Altcoin Index: dari x1 → x0.5 (turun 50%)
➡ Altcoin akan terpukul lebih keras dibanding BTC & ETH, terutama memecoin dan low-cap project.
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📌 Kesimpulan
Kalau bullish → Desember 2025 bisa jadi puncak altseason (ETH ke $8K, banyak altcoin meledak x10–100).
Kalau bearish → dominasi BTC naik, altcoin tertekan, hanya BTC & stablecoin yang relatif aman.
👉 Jadi strategi terbaik adalah siapkan portofolio campuran:
BTC & ETH untuk keamanan.
Altcoin & memecoin untuk peluang multiplier (tapi high risk).