Mr 0cean

sending oil prices higher—and it completely disrupts the macro framework I've been tracking.
For weeks, I've been following what I call the "inflation decompression sequence":
Falling oil prices → Softer CPI → A more dovish Warsh narrative → Lower rate expectations.
By early last week, roughly 70% of that sequence had already played out.
• The Iran MOU had been signed.
• Oil had fallen from $93 to the $75–80 range.
• Warsh signaled at the ECB conference that inflation risks had eased.
• Nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000.
Everything appeared to be moving in the right direction.
Then yesterday happened.
This is already the fourth or fifth Strait of Hormuz flare-up this year. I discussed this risk back on June 19–20. Shortly after the previous agreement, Israel launched strikes in Lebanon. This time, Iran itself is reportedly targeting merchant vessels.
The key question now is whether this is an isolated event—or the beginning of another sustained escalation.
If tensions continue to rise, oil prices are likely to rebound over the coming weeks. That would mean the recent decline in energy prices reflected in the June CPI could prove temporary rather than the start of a lasting disinflation trend.
In that scenario, even if June CPI comes in soft, Warsh may still be reluctant to shift his stance ahead of the July 28 FOMC, because July's oil-price data would already be pointing back toward higher inflation.
As a result, I'm lowering my confidence that the inflation decompression sequence has fully played out.
For now, I'm waiting to see how this latest escalation develops. Until we get more clarity, the upcoming June CPI report becomes even more important—and even more difficult to interpret.
$XAG
$CL
$BTC
#USLaunchesNewStrikesAgainstIran #USStrikesIranRevokesOilWaiver #OilRises5%OnUSIranTensions

mencabut izin Iran untuk menjual minyak pada jam yang sama, dan membiarkan pasar asuransi menyelesaikan pekerjaannya.
Itu bukan satu tindakan balasan. Itu tiga persenjataan yang ditembakkan sekaligus. Bom di Bandar Abbas, semacam mesin guillotine untuk sanksi terhadap pendapatan minyak Iran, dan premi risiko perang yang baru saja membuat Selat itu tidak terjangkau untuk diseberangi.
Dan dalam hitungan jam, Iran/IRGC membalas, mengklaim serangan terhadap 85 situs yang terkait dengan AS di Teluk. Perjanjian gencatan senjata jelas sudah berakhir.
Baca rangkaiannya, karena sebuah doktrin sedang dilahirkan di dalamnya. Sepuluh hari lalu, AS menyerang persenjataan di selat milik Iran dan menghentikannya.

Jay D. Wans adalah kandidat utama presiden dari Partai Republik pada 2028. Demikian dilaporkan oleh Axios. Wans didukung oleh 62% Republikan, Rubio - 51%. Wans unggul 3% dari Trump dan memimpin dalam jajak pendapat nasional. Rubio, menurut publikasi tersebut, tidak ingin maju dan tidak memiliki sumber daya untuk kampanye tersebut.
Trump berhenti membandingkan mereka dan sekarang berkata: "Jay D. terlihat hebat, bukan?" Taruhan itu dibuat.
Wans bukan sekadar wakil presiden. Ia adalah kelanjutan dari Trumpisme. Lebih muda, lebih tangguh, fokus pada basis yang sama, tetapi dengan lebih sedikit beban skandal. Rubio adalah pilihan alternatif.