goldmansachs

Goldman Sachs has upgraded Coinbase to a Buy rating from Neutral, setting a price target of $303 that represents approximately 34 percent upside from recent trading levels near $225. The upgrade comes as part of the investment bank's broader 2026 outlook for the cryptocurrency sector, in which Goldman expressed selective optimism while acknowledging significant headwinds facing the industry.

The investment bank's upgraded view reflects Coinbase's evolving business model, which has shifted substantially toward infrastructure and subscription-based revenue streams over the past five years. Goldman estimates that custody services, staking operations, and subscription products now represent roughly 40 percent of Coinbase's total revenue, a dramatic increase from less than 5 percent five years ago. These structural revenue sources are viewed as less volatile than traditional spot trading fees and better positioned to capitalize on mainstream adoption of digital assets.

Coinbase shares responded positively to the upgrade, climbing approximately 7.5 percent as bitcoin moved back above $94,000. The exchange operator has recently expanded its product portfolio beyond core cryptocurrency trading, launching U.S. equities trading, prediction markets, derivatives products, and enhanced banking services in December. Goldman identified prediction markets and tokenization as particularly compelling long-term opportunities, though the bank emphasized that achieving meaningful scale and liquidity will be essential for monetization.

Despite the upgraded rating, Goldman cautioned that near-term profitability faces substantial pressure from multiple sources. The analysts noted that competition is intensifying as traditional brokerage firms add cryptocurrency offerings while crypto-native platforms expand into equities, banking, and payments. This competitive dynamic is expected to elevate customer acquisition costs across the sector and compress margins. Additionally, the bank highlighted sensitivity to interest rate movements as a factor that could limit margin expansion.

Goldman's outlook anticipates that adjusted EBITDA margins will remain essentially flat in 2026 as these competitive and macroeconomic pressures offset revenue growth. The bank emphasized that its constructive stance on Coinbase represents a selective view rather than broad optimism for the cryptocurrency exchange sector as a whole.

Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant consideration in Goldman's analysis. The bank noted that a substantial portion of its longer-term bullish case depends on the passage of comprehensive crypto market structure legislation by Congress, which would provide clearer operating guidelines for U.S.-based exchanges. The analysts characterized this regulatory development as a key catalyst that could unlock additional upside beyond the current price target, while its absence could constrain the company's growth trajectory and limit the realization of new business opportunities.

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💼 Goldman Sachs, salah satu raksasa Wall Street dengan $3 TRILIUN di bawah pengelolaan, baru saja meluncurkan proyeksi yang bisa mengubah arah pasar:

🏦 FED akan mulai memangkas suku bunga pada bulan September dan akan melakukan 3 pemotongan total selama tahun 2025.

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Harapannya adalah bahwa Federal Reserve akan memoderasi kebijakan moneternya untuk melindungi pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam konteks perlambatan inflasi dan tanda-tanda pendinginan pasar tenaga kerja.

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