Cointelegraph

Gold pricing shifts onto blockchain networks once US futures markets close for the weekend, according to Iggy Ioppe, former chief investment officer at Credit Suisse and now chief investment officer (CIO) at liquidity infrastructure firm Theo.

CME gold futures stop trading at 5:00 pm ET on Friday and reopen at 6:00 pm ET on Sunday. During that interval, regulated futures markets are inactive and most remaining activity occurs through private over-the-counter deals in Asia that are not publicly reported. As a result, tokenized gold assets such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) become the only continuously available trading venues.

“In terms of publicly visible price formation, onchain markets are responsible for virtually 100% of weekend price discovery,” Ioppe told Cointelegraph.

He added that when futures trading resumes, prices often align with movements that already occurred on blockchain markets. “We are seeing weekend moves reflected when CME reopens,” he said.

Tokenized gold market cap jumps to $4.4 billion

The shift comes amid rising trading volume for tokenized gold. As Cointelegraph reported, tokenized gold expanded rapidly over the past year, adding nearly $2.8 billion in value and growing from about $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion in market capitalization.

The sector’s market cap rose 177%, far outpacing the broader gold market and most major spot gold ETFs, while the number of holders nearly tripled with more than 115,000 new wallets. The growth represented roughly a quarter of all net inflows into the real-world asset (RWA) sector and exceeded the combined expansion of tokenized stocks, corporate bonds and non-US Treasurys.

Tokenized gold market cap rises. Source: Cex.io

Trading activity also surged, with tokenized gold recording about $178 billion in 2025 volume and peaking above $126 billion in the fourth quarter. That level would make it the second-largest gold investment product globally by trading volume after SPDR Gold Shares.

Ioppe said that market makers and cross-venue liquidity providers dominate participation, arbitraging price differences between digital and traditional markets. Crypto-native macro traders also play a major role, using tokenized gold not only for exposure to bullion prices but also for collateral, hedging and yield strategies during periods of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty.

“Some institutions are monitoring weekend onchain gold markets, particularly macro and cross-asset desks that track gap risk ahead of the CME reopen,” he said, noting that most institutions treat the signal as informational rather than a basis for active positioning.

24/7 tokenized gold trading lets investors manage risk

Tokenized gold markets allow for continuous trading, which offers a practical risk management advantage. If a geopolitical event occurs while futures markets are closed, traditional participants cannot adjust positions. Tokenized markets allow immediate rebalancing.

On Saturday, tokenized gold rallied as geopolitical tensions escalated following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with investors moving into XAUT and PAXG while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) fell. XAUT briefly climbed above $5,450 and PAXG neared $5,536 during the day before trimming gains, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

PAXG surges on Saturday. Source: CoinMarketCap

However, Ioppe said adoption still faces obstacles. Liquidity remains smaller than in futures or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making large trades harder to execute without moving prices. “Regulatory clarity is improving, but fragmentation across jurisdictions slows institutional deployment. Custody, accounting, and capital rules still vary widely,” he said.

For now, tokenized gold is expected to operate alongside traditional products rather than replace them. “The most likely near-term evolution is that of tokenized and traditional markets existing in parallel, each serving a different function,” Ioppe concluded.

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The US military reportedly used Anthropic during a major air strike on Iran, only hours after President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies to halt use of the company’s systems.

Military commands, including US Central Command (CENTCOM) in the Middle East, used Anthropic’s Claude AI model for operational support, according to people familiar with the matter cited by The Wall Street Journal. The tool has reportedly assisted with intelligence analysis, identifying potential targets and running battlefield simulations.

The incident shows how deeply advanced AI systems have become embedded in defense operations. Even as the administration moved to sever ties with the company, Claude remained integrated into military workflows.

On Friday, the Trump administration instructed agencies to stop working with the company and directed the Defense Department to treat it as a potential security risk. The order came after contract talks broke down, with Anthropic refusing to grant unrestricted military use of its AI for any lawful scenario requested by defense officials.

Related: Crypto VC Paradigm expands into AI, robotics with $1.5B fund: WSJ

Anthropic’s Claude AI used for classified operations

Anthropic had previously secured a multiyear Pentagon contract worth up to $200 million alongside several major AI labs. Through partnerships involving Palantir and Amazon Web Services, Claude became approved for classified intelligence and operational workflows. The system was reportedly also involved in earlier operations, including a January mission in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Tensions intensified after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demanded the company permit unrestricted military use of its models. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei rejected the request, describing certain applications as ethical boundaries the company would not cross, even if it meant losing government business.

In response, the Pentagon began lining up replacement providers, reaching an agreement with OpenAI to deploy its AI models on classified military networks.

OpenAI faces backlash after reaching deal with US military. Source: Sreemoy Talukdar

Related: Pantera, Franklin Templeton join Sentient Arena to test AI agents

Anthropic CEO pushes back on Pentagon ban

During an interview on Saturday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said the company opposes the use of its AI models for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, responding to a US government directive that labeled the firm a defense “supply chain risk” and barred contractors from using its products.

He argued that certain applications cross fundamental boundaries, emphasizing that military decisions should remain under human control rather than be delegated entirely to machines.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author

Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions.

The six wallets were all created in February and placed nearly all of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

The timing drew attention from onchain investigators, who said the pattern resembles behavior previously linked to suspected insider activity on prediction markets.

Crypto users flag suspicious Polymarket bets. Source: cvxv666

“In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public,” Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, reportedly said. “Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early,” he added.

Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment, but had not received a response by publication

Related: Polymarket user gains $400K betting on ZachXBT investigation

Polymarket Iran strike bets draw $529 million in volume

During the recent escalation, more than $529 million flowed into strike-related contracts on Polymarket. The specific Feb. 28 contract alone attracted roughly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike date among traders. A Jan. 31 scenario followed with about $42 million.

Notably, one of the flagged accounts had previously lost money on an earlier prediction before placing a larger wager that later returned more than $170,000, suggesting that the trades do not by themselves prove wrongdoing. Washington had also publicly warned of possible military action for weeks, drawing speculators to the platform.

There have been more instances of insider-trading allegations on Polymarket. This week, a small cluster of crypto wallets earned more than $1.2 million betting on a contract tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before investigator ZachXBT published claims that an Axiom employee and associates had been engaged in insider trading since early 2025.

Last month, a Polymarket account made about $400,000 from a well-timed wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The wallet had placed roughly $32,000 on Maduro’s removal shortly before the news became public, raising insider trading concerns.

Related: Polymarket users favor Meteora in bets over ZachXBT crypto takedown

US lawmaker moves to ban insider trading on prediction markets

As Cointelegraph reported, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to limit insider trading on prediction platforms. The proposal would bar elected officials, political appointees and executive-branch employees from trading contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they possess nonpublic information.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has faced a wave of regulatory actions worldwide, with several countries, including the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore and Portugal, blocking or banning the platform after classifying its event-based contracts as unlicensed online gambling rather than financial trading.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author

Bitcoin prices have recovered from their dip following the US-Israeli air strikes on Iran and reports of the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices reached $68,200 in early trading on Sunday morning on Coinbase, according to TradingView.

The asset has now recovered all losses from its dip to $63,000 on Saturday, adding $5,000 in less than 24 hours following the news that the United States and Israel had commenced air strikes on Iran. 

BTC is currently trading back at Friday’s levels, around $67,350 at the time of writing, but remains within a three-week range-bound channel. 

Over the past 24 hours, around 157,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations coming in at $657 million, roughly evenly split between leveraged longs and shorts, according to CoinGlass. 

Iranian Supreme Leader Killed

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Ayatollah Khamenei was killed early Saturday morning at his office, reported the BBC.

US President Donald Trump described the hardline Islamist cleric as “one of the most evil people in history” on his social media platform, Truth Social.

“This is not only justice for the people of Iran, but for all great Americans, and those people from many countries throughout the world, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty thugs,” he said. 

The commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Pakpour, and the secretary of Iran’s Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, were also killed in the US-Israel strikes.

Related: Bitcoin bottom fractal calls for 130% rally, but is the model valid in 2026?

“After news of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death, the market pumped because people are taking it as the end of the US-Iran war,” commented analyst Ash Crypto on Sunday. 

“If this conflict shows signs of resolution before Monday’s open, I think Bitcoin can hold its gains and move higher,” he added. 

Source: Ash Crypto

Bitcoin’s third-worst February ever

Despite the recent gains, Bitcoin has just closed its third-worst February in history and only the fourth time since 2013 that the asset has ended the month in the red.

BTC shed just under 15% last month, but its worst February was in 2014 when it lost 31%, followed by 2025 when it fell 17.4%, according to CoinGlass.

The asset is also on track to close its worst-performing first quarter since 2018, having lost almost 23% so far since the beginning of the year.

Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security

Ethereum account abstraction, or smart accounts, will be shipped with the Hegota upgrade “within a year,” said Vitalik Buterin on Saturday.

“We have been talking about account abstraction ever since early 2016,” said the Ethereum co-founder over the weekend. 

He added that now, “we finally have EIP-8141, an omnibus that wraps up and solves every remaining problem that AA [account abstraction] was intended to address (plus more),” and it is slated for deployment this year.  

“Finally, after over a decade of research and refinement of these techniques, this all looks possible to make happen within a year (Hegota fork).”

The core concept is “about as simple as you can get while still being highly general purpose,” using “frame transactions,” explained Buterin. 

Instead of a transaction being a single operation, it becomes a sequence of “frames” that can reference each other’s data, and each frame can signal authorization of a sender or gas payer. 

A core principle of cypherpunk Ethereum

Smart accounts with multi-signatures, quantum-resistant wallets, and accounts with changeable keys work by having a validation frame, which checks the signature and approves it, followed by an execution frame. 

Paying gas in non-ETH tokens can be done via a “paymaster contract” or a special-purpose decentralized exchange that provides Ether (ETH) in real time, with no intermediaries required, which is a big deal for Ethereum’s ethos, said Vitalik.  

“Intermediary minimization is a core principle of non-ugly cypherpunk Ethereum: maximize what you can do even if all the world’s infrastructure except the Ethereum chain itself goes down.”

Related: Vitalik Buterin outlines quantum resistance roadmap for Ethereum

Buterin explained that this was also a big deal for privacy protocol users, as it means they can completely remove “public broadcasters” that are the “source of massive UX pain” in privacy platforms such as Railgun and Tornado Cash, and replace them with a “general-purpose public mempool.”

Native account abstraction is expected in the second half of 2026, according to the “Strawmap.” Source: Ethereum Foundation

Quantum-resistant Ethereum in the pipeline

All Ethereum accounts, including existing ones, can be put into the same framework and gain the ability to do batch operations and transaction sponsorship, he said. 

The Ethereum co-founder posted his quantum resistance roadmap for Ethereum on Thursday, stating that the four areas of concern were validator signatures, data storage, user account signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs.

He also said that he expects to see “progressive decreases” of both slot time and finality time in the longer-term scaling roadmap. 

Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security

The CEO of AI company Anthropic, Dario Amodei, has responded to the United States Department of Defense and the White House, ordering military defense contractors that do business with the Department of Defense to stop using Anthropic’s products.

Anthropic objected to the use of its AI models for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons that can fire without any human input, Amodei told CBS on Saturday. 

He added that Anthropic was fine with all of the US government’s proposed use cases for its AI models, except for surveillance and fully autonomous weapons platforms. He said:

“These are things that are fundamental to Americans: the right, not to be spied on by the government, the right for our military officers to make decisions about war, themselves, and not turn it over completely to a machine.” 

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei responds to an announcement from US officials labeling the company as a “supply chain risk.” Source: CBS

The decision by the Defense Department to label Anthropic as a “supply chain risk,” meaning that military contractors cannot use Anthropic’s products on defense contracting work, is “unprecedented” and “punitive,” he added.

Amodei later clarified that he is not against the development of fully automated weapons if foreign militaries begin using them in the future, but that AI is not yet reliable enough to function autonomously in a military setting.

The law has not caught up to the rapidly developing AI sector, Amodei said, calling on the United States Congress to pass “guardrails” to prevent the use of AI in domestic mass surveillance programs.

Related: Anthropic says it's been targeted in massive distillation attacks

OpenAI wins a defense contract after US officials label Anthropic a supply chain risk

On Friday, US “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth announced that Anthropic is a “Supply-Chain Risk to National Security.”

“Effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic,” he said. 

Hours later, rival AI company OpenAI accepted a contract with the US Defense Department to deploy its AI models across military networks. 

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announces OpenAI has reached an agreement to provide services to the Department of Defense. Source: Sam Altman

The announcement of the deal from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman drew online backlash from critics, who cited AI being used for mass domestic surveillance and undermining individual privacy as a red line.  

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Key takeaways:

Institutional adoption of the Ethereum network accelerates despite Ether disappointing price action. Ethereum and its layer-2s hold 65% of TVL market share.

Vitalik Buterin is shifting focus toward base layer scalability and ZK-EVM to ensure long-term onchain efficiency and security.

Ether (ETH) has declined 36% in 2026, sparking frustration as the $3,000 level feels increasingly out of reach. Despite a retreat toward $1,900, Ethereum fundamentals appear resilient. Development continues at a rapid pace, specifically targeting base layer scalability, privacy, and quantum resistance. 

Critics claiming Ether is poorly positioned may be surprised if the market sentiment shifts back toward cryptocurrencies.

ETH/USD (orange) vs total crypto capitalization (blue). Source: TradingView

Ether has underperformed the broader crypto market by 9% during the first two months of 2026, challenging the theory that external factors are the sole drivers of this correction. Decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes on the Ethereum network fell 55% over the past six months, while competitor Solana saw a more modest 21% decline during that same timeframe.

Ethereum 30-day DEX volumes (left) & DApp revenue, USD (right). Source: DefiLlama

Ethereum DEX volumes dropped to $56.5 billion in February 2026, down significantly from a peak of $128.5 billion in August 2025. During the same period, monthly Solana volumes reached $95.5 billion, down from $120.6 billion in August. This contraction in activity has weighed on network fees and decentralized application (DApp) revenue, effectively reducing the immediate incentives for holding Ether.

Institutions choose Ethereum over other blockchains

The narrow focus on volume ignores the fact that Ethereum maintains a 57% market share in total value locked (TVL), totaling $52.4 billion. When including layer-2 solutions such as Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Optimism, Ethereum’s dominance rises to 65%. For comparison, Solana’s TVL sits at $6.4 billion, while BNB Chain holds an aggregate $5.5 billion locked in smart contracts.

Major institutions, including JP Morgan Asset Management, Citi, Deutsche Bank, and BlackRock, have recently launched onchain projects using Ethereum. From tokenized funds to dedicated layer-2 rollups and bank-issued stablecoins, Ethereum remains the primary venue for decentralized finance (DeFi) innovation, commanding a 68% market share in Real World Assets (RWA).

Real World Assets active market capitalization, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Ethereum’s strategic decision to prioritize layer-2 scalability via rollups has been partially labeled a failure, as competing chains like Tron and Solana currently lead in network fees. Regardless of how critics judge the decision to subsidize rollup costs, no "Ethereum killer" has managed to match its monetary value. Even the highly successful Hyperliquid maintains a relatively modest $1.5 billion in TVL.

Blockchains ranked by Total Value Locked, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder and lead architect, recently expressed intentions to reduce dependence on rollups by targeting base layer scalability. According to Buterin, the proposed changes include parallel block verification, aligning gas costs with actual execution time, and the implementation of a zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (ZK-EVM).

These updates will be implemented gradually. Buterin recommends that a minority of the network participate initially before moving toward mandatory block confirmation systems that rely on ZK-EVM. Additionally, Ethereum maintains a clear roadmap to navigate the quantum computing era, which includes consensus-layer signatures based on privacy-focused proof systems.

Related: Why institutions still prefer Ethereum despite faster blockchains

Buterin has admitted that quantum-resistant signatures are significantly larger and more difficult to verify, noting that lattice-based solutions are currently inefficient. Consequently, the proposed solution involves fixing protocol-layer recursive signature and proof aggregation while developing vectorized math precompiles to reduce gas costs. While the Ethereum network is not yet perfect, a viable path for scalability exists.

Before dismissing ETH as a failure, it is necessary to analyze what has made the network successful relative to competing DApp-focused blockchains. Decentralization and trust require years, if not decades, to establish. ETH maintains a significant first-mover advantage and appears well-positioned to capture a future surge in demand for institutional-grade onchain activity.

A Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal that appeared in 2023, ahead of a 130% rally in 2024, has flashed again this week, raising the possibility that the price is nearing another bullish inflection point. 

At the same time, the broader data of liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and macroeconomic data changes the environment from two years ago, suggesting that the path forward may not mirror the previous cycle’s.

BTC bottom trigger appears without strong follow-through

Data aggregator Swissblock noted that Bitcoin has now logged 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone, the longest stretch on record and above the 23-day peak seen in 2023. Historically, an extended stay in this zone has aligned with late-stage drawdowns or a bottom signal.

Bitcoin Risk Index. Source: Swissblock/X

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe also pointed to the BTC versus supply in the profit/loss chart, which shows the price interacting with levels that previously marked bottoming phases. In 2023, the shift from high risk to low risk coincided with the start of a powerful bullish expansion.

BTCUSD vs BTC supply in profit/loss. Source: Michael van de Poppe/X

Trader positioning is not in sync with an uptrend. RugaResearch noted that 30-day apparent demand continues to flip between positive and negative. While the selling pressure has faded, sustained buying demand has not maintained its dominance.

Related: Bitcoin to $30K? Analysts debate when and at what price BTC will bottom

Deeper Bitcoin drawdowns take time

Macroeconomic newsletter Ecoinometrics highlighted that a BTC decline of this magnitude rarely resolves quickly. Excluding the 2020 COVID rally, which was supported by aggressive monetary policy intervention, the recoveries from 50% drawdowns developed over an extended period.

Bitcoin is in deep drawdown territory. Source: Ecoinometrics

The ETF flow data reinforces the cautious tone. Since August, cumulative inflows into gold ETFs have surpassed spot Bitcoin ETF flows on a 90-day rolling basis. Over the same period, Bitcoin funds have posted negative flows on a 90-day average rolling basis, currently sitting at –$2.06 billion. 

The inflation trends added further context. Ecoinometrics noted that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) sits near 2.9% year-on-year, with core near 3.0% and core services above 3.4%. The Federal Reserve targets PCE, and the recent trend has not shown a clear downward shift. Without easing expectations, the liquidity expansion looks limited.

The price levels frame the debate. CMCC Crest Managing Partner Willy Woo said that any short-term relief rally to $70,000 to $80,000 is likely to be met with another round of selling pressure, since “the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating”.

Bitcoin Flow Model. Source: Willy Woo/X

Woo said that the $45,000 level aligns with the prior bear market. Below that, $30,000 and $16,000 mark the historical support, which is tied to longer-term trend preservation. 

Related: Crypto taxes updated, BTC stuck below $70K: Month in charts

The crypto treasury market is likely to consolidate this year amid the market downturn, as companies with operating businesses merge with or acquire those trading below net asset value (NAV), according to Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer of crypto infrastructure and treasury company BTCS.

Operating businesses, such as providing validator services for blockchain networks or offering public and private credit instruments, generate cash flow that give crypto treasury companies an edge over those that only accumulate crypto, Kaszycki told Cointelegraph.

This financial edge allows them to buy up companies treading water on their crypto investments or trading below the value of their crypto holdings, he said. Kaszycki added: 

“If you consolidate with another player, sometimes two plus two equals six or more, you can win faster, because everybody in this market trading below net asset value is struggling.”

Crypto treasury companies experienced a market-wide downturn in 2025, with many companies’ stock prices dropping below the value of the crypto held on their balance sheets. The crypto treasury decline preceded the crypto market crash in October. 

Related: Crypto Biz: A Bitcoin treasury shareholder revolt

Tokenized public and private credit instruments as a revenue stream for crypto treasuries

“In today's world, credit instruments are one of the biggest financial instruments used worldwide,” Kaszycki told Cointelegraph.

Public and private credit instruments could also be tokenized on blockchain networks, Kaszycki said.

“I believe tokenized real-world assets (RWA), especially tokenization of public and private credit, is something that will grow a lot in the next 24 months,” he said.

These RWAs could be used as collateral on decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, including lending or borrowing applications, he said. 

An overview of the tokenized private credit market. Source: RWA.XYZ

Strategy, the biggest Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company in the world, offers credit-like and fixed-income instruments to the investing public.

The company cited its fixed-income instruments as one of the reasons that MSCI, an index provider, should include Strategy and other similar crypto treasury companies in its stock indexes.

“Strategy’s treasury operations are designed to provide investors with varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments,” Strategy wrote in response to MSCI.

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Bitcoin (BTC) rewards investors the most who hold it for at least three years, according to data shared by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe.

Key takeaways:

Holding BTC for at least three years has historically slashed losses to just 0.70%.

Bitcoin price predictions for 2026–2027 cluster around $100,000–$150,000 in bullish scenarios.

Long-term Bitcoin holders rarely lose

A Bitwise analysis reviewed Bitcoin’s price history between July 17, 2010, and Feb. 11, 2026, concluding that the probability of being in the red drops to just 0.70% when BTC is held for at least three years.

Bitcoin investors’ probability of loss per holding period. Source: Bitwise

In other words, nearly all rolling three-year entry points in Bitcoin’s history ended up profitable. Beyond three years, the risk of loss fell even further: 0.2% over five years and 0% over ten years.

Traders holding Bitcoin for less than three years faced a much higher risk of loss.

Intraday buyers, for instance, had a 47.1% chance of being underwater. That probability stayed elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding period.

Stronger hands are 90% in profit already

The realized price metric also shows declines in holders’ losses over multi-year windows.

As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down by roughly 50% from its October 2025 high, trading for around $65,000.

That was way above its three-to-five-year realized price of $34,780, meaning investors who bought and held through that window were still sitting on an approximately 90% profit.

BTC realized price by age. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, some traders argue the ongoing Bitcoin price correction could extend toward $30,000.

A move to that level would wipe out much of the cohort’s cushion, pushing the three–five year band closer to breakeven. That would further test whether these holders start adding to sell pressure or sit tight.

Conversely, most traders who bought Bitcoin in the past two years were underwater.

BTC realized price by age. Source: Glassnode

The cost basis of the 6m–12m cohort, entities that have been holding BTC for up to a year, was around $101,250, leaving them with roughly a 35% in unrealized loss as of Saturday.

However, the 1y–2y cohort’s cost basis was lower, around $78,150, translating into about a 15% unrealized loss.

The gap reinforced the same pattern seen in the holding-period data: the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown tends to be during corrections.

How high can BTC price go?

Longer-term forecasts still cluster around a handful of upside targets for 2026–2027.

For instance, global brokerage firm Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC price call for 2026, pointing to relatively modest net outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, even as BTC’s price fell by 50%.

“The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.

Standard Chartered, meanwhile, warned of a potential “final capitulation” phase that could drag BTC toward $50,000 amid weak ETF flows and a tougher macro backdrop, before recovering toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.

Looking into 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historical “average return” framework points to $122,000 by early 2027, with high odds that BTC trades above that figure.

Trailing positive BTC price months with put option payoff data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

A group of 11 US senators has asked federal authorities to investigate whether crypto exchange Binance is complying with US sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements, citing recent reports.

In a letter on Friday to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pamela Bondi, the lawmakers urged a “prompt, comprehensive review” of the exchange’s compliance controls and its adherence to settlement agreements reached in 2023.

The senators pointed to allegations that approximately $1.7 billion in digital assets flowed through Binance to Iranian entities linked to terrorism, including groups connected to the Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Investigators also reportedly identified more than 1,500 accounts accessed by users in Iran and potential activity connected to Russian sanctions evasion.

According to the letter, some Binance compliance staff who uncovered suspicious transactions were later dismissed, and law enforcement agencies said the exchange had become less cooperative in providing customer information.

Related: Binance stablecoin reserves have sunk 19% since November

Senators warn Binance products could enable sanctions evasion

Senators Chris Van Hollen and Ruben Gallego, joined by Angela D. Alsobrooks, Andy Kim, Raphael Warnock, Tina Smith, Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark R. Warner, Elizabeth Warren, Jack Reed and Lisa Blunt Rochester, signed the letter.

They also raised concerns about newer products, including payment cards launched in parts of the former Soviet Union and partnerships tied to stablecoin initiatives, which they warned could facilitate sanctions evasion.

The senators asked the agencies to report by March 13 on any steps taken to examine the exchange’s conduct.

Senators ask for probe into Binance. Source: Senate

On Tuesday, Senator Richard Blumenthal, ranking member of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, also launched a congressional inquiry into Binance. He sent a letter to Binance CEO Richard Teng requesting documents and internal records related to the exchange’s sanctions controls.

Related: Binance confirms employee targeted as three arrested in France break-in

Binance denies Iran-linked transaction claims

In a statement to Cointelegraph this week, Binance rejected allegations that its platform facilitated illicit transactions, saying it identified and reported suspicious activity to authorities and does not allow Iranian users. A company spokesperson said recent media coverage misrepresented the exchange’s operations.

Last week, the exchange also disputed a report claiming it processed more than $1 billion in Iran-linked transfers and denied dismissing investigators over the issue.

Teng has also criticized a Wall Street Journal report alleging $1.7 billion in Iran-related activity, calling it defamatory and seeking a retraction.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Ethereum continues to host the largest concentration of stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) capital, even as successive waves of faster networks emerge.

Newer blockchains have promised higher throughput and lower costs, raising questions about whether institutional capital could eventually migrate away from Ethereum.

Kevin Lepsoe, founder of ETHGas and a former Morgan Stanley derivatives executive in Asia, said he expects Ethereum’s lead to endure, as institutions tend to prioritize capital depth over flashy performance.

“[Transactions per second] is the metric that gets engineers excited, but is that what drives capital to the blockchain?” Lepsoe asked in an interview with Cointelegraph.

“The capital is on Ethereum; the stablecoins are there. TradFi is looking at where the liquidity is,” he said.

Institutional capital brings scale and stability to a blockchain’s ecosystem. Large asset managers and tokenized fund issuers move capital in volumes that deepen liquidity and anchor stablecoin supply. Their presence can establish a network’s position beyond hype-driven retail activity that surges in bull markets and fades in downturns.

Ethereum isn’t the fastest chain, but its DeFi liquidity is the deepest. Source: DefiLlama

Liquidity keeps Ethereum ahead of faster rivals

If institutions prefer to operate where most of the money already sits, then simply making a faster blockchain will not pull capital away from Ethereum.

Over the past several cycles, performance has become a weapon to attract users. Solana has emerged as Ethereum’s high-speed alternative, dubbed an “Ethereum killer,” though that label is debated. It onboarded retail traders through the non-fungible token (NFT) boom and the memecoin frenzy, but the heightened activities weren’t sustained in the long run.

Related: Can Solana shed its memecoin image in 2026?

Solana now has its own generation of “Solana killers” that advertise higher theoretical transactions per second (TPS). But Ethereum’s liquidity grants tighter spreads, lower slippage for large trades and the capacity to absorb institutional-sized transactions without heavily distorting prices.

“I think of Ethereum as like downtown,” Lepsoe said.

“You could build a marketplace uptown somewhere in the suburbs and you could get far off market prices there, maybe it’s more convenient or maybe you like the vibe. But if you want the deepest liquidity, you go downtown, and that’s Ethereum.”

Though past crypto booms featured high-stakes retail speculation, the next phase is shaping up to include more institutional capital. As it stands, institutional players have expressed interest in practical use cases such as stablecoins and real-world assets (RWAs).

Even the world’s largest asset manager is leaning into RWA products. BlackRock’s USD Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) is its tokenized Treasury fund that started on Ethereum and branched out to several blockchains. Ethereum holds over a 30% BUIDL market capitalization.

Ethereum has been widening its lead as the distribution layer for RWAs, excluding stablecoins. Source: RWA.xyz

Ethereum is the largest network for stablecoins as well, which BlackRock’s global head of market development, Samara Cohen, said are “becoming the bridge between traditional finance and digital liquidity.”

Ethereum leads the industry in stablecoin market cap, with $160.4 billion, according to DefiLlama.

Ethereum’s L2 liquidity is returning to L1

Though Lepsoe said liquidity depth shapes institutional preference, a network’s efficiency cannot be completely disregarded.

Ethereum has been adjusting its own technical profile. Transaction fees that once routinely spiked to virtually unusable prices have fallen significantly, as layer-2 rollups eased pressure on the main chain. These solutions brought in new problems of their own. Rollups fragmented liquidity across multiple environments.

Related: 2026 is the year Ethereum starts scaling exponentially with ZK tech

Lepsoe described the liquidity fragmentation as a blessing in disguise for Ethereum. He argued that if L2s didn’t take away liquidity from the main chain, capital would have flown out to competitors.

“I think it actually saved the liquidity from going to other L1s, where they eventually probably couldn’t have brought it back,” he said.

Recently, Ethereum has shifted its focus back to scaling the main chain. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that many layer 2s have failed to decentralize, while the main chain is now sufficiently scaling.

“Both of these facts, for their own separate reasons, mean that the original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense, and we need a new path,” Buterin said in a recent X post.

Institutions want their own chains, and Ethereum L2s let them have that without leaving Ethereum’s ecosystem, an Arbitrum developer said. Source: Steven Goldfeder

Scaling upgrades strengthen Ethereum’s liquidity advantage

With transaction fees tamed, Ethereum is expected to execute the Glamsterdam fork in 2026, raising the block gas limit to 200 million from 60 million and putting its layer 1 on the road to 10,000 TPS over time.

For Ethereum, the timing coincides with institutions evaluating blockchain infrastructure for the next generation of financial services.

Alongside protocol upgrades, infrastructure providers are experimenting with ways to improve execution efficiency. Projects like Lepsoe’s ETHGas aim to optimize Ethereum’s block construction process through offchain execution and coordination, while Psy Protocol uses zero-knowledge technology to bundle multiple transactions into one.

Marcin Kaźmierczak, co-founder of blockchain oracle RedStone — which supplies data feeds for tokenized assets and institutional blockchain applications — said that Ethereum has the edge, as institutions prefer blockchains that have been battle-tested and around “for a very long time.” However, while institutions are “aggressively” expanding into Ethereum, they’re also shopping around.

“They look at Solana, which is getting good traction. Canton is extremely important for them because it gives them privacy, which they value very, very much,” Kaźmierczak told Cointelegraph.

Lepsoe said he sees “zero threat” from Solana or Canton, arguing that Ethereum still has the deepest liquidity pool, which is the primary draw for large allocators.

For institutional capital, performance improvements may expand Ethereum’s capacity, but liquidity remains its defining advantage. In blockchain markets, speed can attract users during booms, but capital tends to stay where the deepest markets already exist.

Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security

Stablecoin issuer Tether has reportedly frozen roughly $4.2 billion worth of its USDt tokens connected to suspected criminal activity over the past three years.

Most of the blocked funds were restricted since 2023, as regulators and law enforcement agencies intensified scrutiny of crypto-related fraud and sanctions evasion, the El Salvador-based firm reportedly told Reuters on Friday.

Tether’s dollar-pegged USDt (USDT) token is the largest stablecoin in circulation, with more than $180 billion outstanding, up sharply from about $70 billion three years ago.

Tether can freeze tokens directly on the blockchain by blacklisting wallet addresses when requested by authorities.

Tether helps governments freeze funds

On Tuesday, Tether announced that it has assisted the US Department of Justice in seizing nearly $61 million in USDt tied to “pig-butchering” scams, a scheme in which criminals build relationships with victims before persuading them to send money.

Earlier this month, the company also froze approximately $544 million in cryptocurrency at the request of Turkish authorities, blocking funds tied to an alleged illegal online betting and money-laundering operation.

According to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, by late 2025, stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle had blacklisted around 5,700 wallets holding about $2.5 billion, with roughly three-quarters of the addresses containing USDt when they were frozen.

USDt supply shrinks

As Cointelegraph reported, USDt is on track for its largest monthly supply drop in three years, with circulating supply falling about $1.5 billion in February after a $1.2 billion decline in January, according to blockchain data. The contraction echoes the period following the FTX collapse in late 2022 and may point to tighter liquidity in crypto markets.

USDt market cap drops in past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Tether said the figures reflect short-term distribution changes rather than weakening demand, noting USDC (USDC) also saw a multibillion-dollar reduction during the same period.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author

Bitcoin (BTC) daily losses neared 4% on Saturday as the US and Israel announced a military operation in Iran.

Key points:

Bitcoin targets $63,000 as US President Donald Trump confirms a major bombing campaign inside Iran.

Trump highlights nuclear infrastructure as a key target of the joint raids with Israel.

Crypto markets react alone with TradFi trading suspended until futures return.

Trump tells Iranians: “Take over your government”

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action testing $63,000 as crypto markets reacted to the weekend’s events.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In a video address, US President Donald Trump said that the goal of the move was to target Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but finished by calling on Iranians to take control of the incumbent government.

“When we are finished, take over your government; it will be yours to take,” he said.

“This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”

With US stock market futures yet to open, crypto was alone in deciding on how to react to fresh geopolitical instability.

Data from CoinGlass showed liquidations passing $250 million in the four hours to the time of writing.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“The US and Israel now appear to be at war with Iran for the second time in 8 months,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.

Kobeissi referenced a previous Iran offensive in 2025 — an event that sparked an immediate, volatile reaction across crypto and risk assets.

Bitcoin reacts to familiar cues

With core support levels still holding for BTC/USD, the fresh escalation comes at a key time for traders as the final hours tick down to the February monthly close.

As Cointelegraph reported, the pair is now down roughly as much as in February 2025, and due to seal its fifth consecutive month of losses — something not encountered in seven years.

Hot US inflation data added another headwind for Bitcoin bulls on Friday, after they tried and failed to reclaim key support levels closer to $70,000.

OpenAI has reached an agreement with the United States Department of Defense to deploy its artificial intelligence models on classified military networks, just hours after the White House ordered federal agencies to stop using technology from rival firm Anthropic.

In a late Friday post on X, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced the deal, saying the company would provide its models inside the Pentagon’s “classified network.” He wrote that the department showed “deep respect for safety” and a willingness to work within the company’s operating limits.

The announcement came amid a turbulent week for the AI sector. Earlier the same day, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Anthropic a “Supply-Chain Risk to National Security,” a designation typically applied to foreign adversaries. The ruling requires defense contractors to certify they are not using the company’s models.

Source: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

President Donald Trump simultaneously directed every US federal agency to immediately halt use of Anthropic technology, with a six-month transition period for agencies already relying on its systems.

Related: Crypto VC Paradigm expands into AI, robotics with $1.5B fund: WSJ

Anthropic Pentagon talks collapse over AI use limits

Anthropic was the first AI lab to deploy models across the Pentagon’s classified environment under a $200 million contract signed in July. Negotiations collapsed after the company sought guarantees that its software would not be used for autonomous weapons or domestic mass surveillance. The Defense Department insisted the technology be available for all lawful military purposes.

In a statement, Anthropic said it was “deeply saddened” by the designation and intends to challenge the decision in court. The company warned the move could set a precedent affecting how American technology firms negotiate with government agencies, as political scrutiny of AI partnerships continues to intensify.

Altman said OpenAI maintains similar restrictions and that they were written into the new agreement. According to him, the company prohibits domestic mass surveillance and requires human responsibility in decisions involving the use of force, including automated weapons systems.

Related: Pantera, Franklin Templeton join Sentient Arena to test AI agents

OpenAI faces backlash after deal

Meanwhile, some users on X voiced skepticism. “I just canceled ChatGPT and bought Claude Pro Max,” Christopher Hale, an American Democratic politician, wrote. “One stands up for the God-given rights of the American people. The other folds to tyrants,” he added.

Source: Sreemoy Talukdar

“2019 OpenAI: we will never help build weapons or surveillance tools. 2026 OpenAI: department of War, hold my classified cloud instance. Integrity arc go brrrrrrr,” one crypto user wrote.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author

Mark Karpelès, the former CEO of Mt. Gox, is calling on community support for a proposal to recover more than $5.2 billion stolen from his Bitcoin exchange more than a decade ago.

On Friday, Karpelès submitted a proposal on GitHub to add a consensus rule that would allow the 79,956 Bitcoin hacked from Mt. Gox (currently sitting in a single wallet) to be moved to a recovery address without the original private key. 

“These coins have not moved in over 15 years. They are among the most well-known and publicly tracked UTXOs in Bitcoin's history,” he wrote. 

Source: Jameson Lopp

Karpelès said that with Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi already overseeing distributions to creditors, if the coins were recoverable, the existing legal and logistical framework would distribute them to their rightful owners. 

“I want to be upfront: this is a hard fork. It makes a previously invalid transaction valid. All nodes would need to upgrade before the activation height. I'm not trying to disguise that fact or sneak it through as something else,” he added.

However, Karpelès said the proposal wasn’t intended to bypass the Bitcoin development process; instead, it was an attempt to start a discussion with the Bitcoin community. 

Source: Luke Dashjr

“The MtGox trustee has declined to pursue on-chain recovery, citing the uncertainty of whether such a consensus change would ever be adopted,” he said. 

“This creates a deadlock: the trustee won't act without certainty, and the community can't evaluate the idea without a concrete proposal. This patch breaks that deadlock by providing something concrete to discuss.”

Bitcoin immutability at risk, say critics 

Karpelès’ proposal saw strong opposition on the online forum Bitcointalk, with most arguing that it would set a bad precedent for Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptocurrency intended to be irreversible and immutable. 

“Each time a hack incident [happens], someone will call for another new consensus rule to recover stolen funds. This will destroy the bitcoin concept in full,” wrote “coupable,” who has been a member of the forum since 2015. 

“Bitcoin should be independent from what Law Enforcement decides in any [jurisdictions],” said another forum member known as “PrivacyG.”  

Karpelès also acknowledged that this would be the strongest argument against the proposal, but argued that the specific case is different enough, as there is both law enforcement and community consensus that the address in question contains Bitcoin stolen from Mt. Gox.

Some who claim to be affected by the Mt. Gox bankruptcy were in favor of the proposal.

“If those coins ever move by whatever mechanism, then I am going to want my share of them back,” said Samson. 

“I'm a creditor and have been paid what little was left of my Bitcoin from the bankruptcy - I got about 15% back… I would support obtaining a court order to claim these coins.”

A brief recap of Mt Gox’s collapse

Mt. Gox was once the biggest Bitcoin exchange, operating from 2010 to 2014 and handling 70% of all Bitcoin transactions worldwide. 

Its global presence, however, made it a honey pot for hackers, who used weaknesses in Mt. Gox’s security systems in 2011 to transfer out thousands of Bitcoin, while other operational errors led to thousands more Bitcoin being “lost.” 

On Feb. 24, 2014, an alleged leaked document claimed that the company was insolvent after losing 744,408 Bitcoin in a theft that was undetected for years. 

The exchange filed for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo on Feb. 28, 2014, reporting it had about $65 million in liabilities after losing 750,000 of its customers’ Bitcoin and 100,000 of its own, worth nearly half a billion dollars at the time. 

Magazine: Review: The Devil Takes Bitcoin, a wild history of Mt. Gox and Silk Road

Morgan Stanley has applied for a de novo national trust bank charter, allowing the bank to hold digital assets on behalf of its clients — a move in rhythm with its recent crypto expansion. 

A public filing with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) shows the application for a bank trust charter was received on Feb. 18 under the name “Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association.” 

More details of the business plan were released on Friday, according to reports from Bloomberg and Forbes, revealing that the Morgan Stanley subsidiary will custody certain digital assets and execute purchases, sales, swaps and transfers to support client investment activities, along with crypto staking. 

Source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

A national bank trust charter authorizes a financial institution to engage in fiduciary activities such as trust services, custody and asset safekeeping. “De novo” is a Latin term for “anew,” meaning it is a newly created entity rather than an acquired one. 

This is Morgan Stanley’s first trust charter with a specific focus on crypto and follows 14 de novo bank charter applications in 2025. There are approximately 60 national trust banks supervised by the OCC in the US. 

Rush for crypto bank charters 

In December, the OCC conditionally approved five applications for crypto-related national trust banks, including First National Digital Currency Bank, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos. 

Stablecoin platform Bridge, owned by payments processor Stripe, said it received conditional approval for a national trust bank earlier this month, which was followed by Crypto.com on Monday.

Related: OCC proposal seeks to settle stablecoin yield debate, clearing way for CLARITY

Days later, Payoneer, a global financial services firm, said it had filed for a national trust bank charter in the US, which could enable it to issue a stablecoin and provide various crypto services.

Morgan Stanley doubling down on crypto 

Morgan Stanley has accelerated its moves toward crypto in recent months. In January, the Wall Street bank tapped equity markets executive Amy Oldenburg to lead its new crypto unit. 

Job listings on LinkedIn show the $2 trillion investment bank is also looking to expand its crypto team, advertising positions for digital assets strategy director, digital assets strategist and digital assets product lead.

Morgan Stanley also filed to launch spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds in January, and later filed for a staked Ether (ETH) ETF. 

Big Questions: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?

Crypto investment firm Paradigm is seeking to raise $1.5 billion for a new fund that will invest in companies in AI, robotics and other frontier technologies, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

Paradigm will continue to invest in crypto companies, according to sources familiar with the situation, but it will use its existing technical investment team to look at deals in frontier tech companies, they said. 

San Francisco–based Paradigm has $12.7 billion in assets under management, according to the latest regulatory filings. 

It launched its flagship $2.5 billion fund in November 2021, which was the largest crypto fund in history at the time. It publicly announced its third fund in 2024 — an $850 million venture fund focused on early-stage crypto projects. 

According to the WSJ’s sources, the firm’s managers decided they didn’t want to be restricted in ways that could cause them to miss out on attractive deals. 

There is also overlap between crypto and AI, such as agentic payments, or transactions made by autonomous AI agents, the person said. 

Paradigm exploring AI as early as 2023

Paradigm acknowledged it had been “tinkering” with AI and its convergence with crypto as early as three years ago. 

In 2023, Paradigm was seen removing Web3 and crypto-specific language from its website, prompting some speculators to suggest it was already pivoting from crypto to AI. 

Matt Huang, the co-founder and managing partner of Paradigm, denied at the time that the website changes reflected a shift away from crypto, but acknowledged that the team had been exploring AI. 

Source: Matt Huang

In a lengthier tweet weeks later, Huang said that while “we’ve never been more excited about crypto and continue to invest across all stages,” the “developments in AI are too interesting to ignore.” 

“It seems trendy to frame crypto vs AI as a zero-sum competition. But we don’t buy it. Both are interesting and will have plenty of overlap. We’re excited to continue exploring,” he said. 

Earlier this month, Paradigm and OpenAI released EVMbench, a new benchmark evaluating how different AI models can detect and patch security vulnerabilities found in smart contracts.

AI made up more than half of all VC funding in 2025

In 2025, venture capital investments in AI firms amounted to $258.7 billion, accounting for 61% of all VC investment and doubling its share from 2022, according to OECD. 

VC funding for generative AI firms made up 14% of all AI venture capital investments, with firms in the United States attracting the largest share of VC funding. 

AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket 

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are showing very different profiles in 2026. Gold has climbed 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin is down roughly 30% over the same stretch. 

One analyst said that the gap lines up with steady growth in global money supply, cooling appetite for risky tech stocks, and falling crypto exchange balances. Together, these changes are shaping how both assets are trading in the market. 

Rising liquidity and tech stock speculation fail to supercharge Bitcoin

In an X post, Fidelity director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer said that gold has behaved as expected in a bull market, with sharp pullbacks attracting short-term buyers. Timmer described gold as a pure “hard money” asset that has tracked global money supply growth closely.

Bitcoin follows the global money supply growth over time, shown by the steady rise in global M2 (orange line). When M2 expands, BTC has generally trended higher. However, the chart shows that Bitcoin’s strongest rallies occurred when liquidity growth aligned with rising software and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks, each being a proxy for speculative appetite.

Bitcoin, Global Liquidity, and SaaS stocks. Source: Jurrien Timmer/X

In 2017–2018 and again in 2020–2021, the software stocks posted gains of roughly 58% and 93% year-over-year, and Bitcoin price rallied sharply during those periods. In 2022, software stocks fell by around 58%, and Bitcoin experienced a deep drawdown even as the money supply levels stayed elevated. 

The data shows that money supply growth supports the long-term trend, while shifts in tech-sector speculation tend to amplify or dampen Bitcoin’s price swings. This indicates that Bitcoin carries hard money exposure and high-beta characteristics, amplifying moves in both directions.

Timmer noted that liquidity is ample while speculative sentiment sits in a bear phase. In this scenario, gold and money supply have rallied together, while Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace.

Related: Bitcoin threatens new breakdown as US PPI sends gold to 1-month high

Gold draws demand on crypto exchanges

Demand on crypto-native platforms has also rotated toward gold-linked products. On Jan. 5, Binance launched 24-hour, 7-day gold futures trading. The cumulative volume of this product is approaching $35 billion, with more than $4 billion recorded on the most active day. The weekly volume averages about $4.7 billion, according to crypto analyst Darkfost. 

Perpetual trading volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Activity accelerated immediately after gold posted a two-day correction exceeding 20%. The spike highlights the demand for tokenized exposure to traditional hard assets within crypto venues.

At the same time, CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s total portfolio value across BTC, ETH, XRP, and major ERC20 and TRC20 stablecoins has fallen to roughly $102 billion. That marks the lowest reading since April 2025, down from about $140 billion in August 2025.

Binance's total reserves for BTC, ETH, and XRP. Source: CryptoQuant

The $38 billion decline reflects lower asset prices and user withdrawals into self-custody during bearish volatility.

For Bitcoin, this points to reduced capital on exchanges, which may signal cautious trader positioning and thin near-term liquidity. 

Related: Bitcoin to $30K? Analysts debate when and at what price BTC will bottom

Solana’s SOL (SOL) is down 72% from its all-time high of $295 and well below the $188 level seen during its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launch in October 2025. Since early December 2025, spot SOL ETF inflows have slowed while the price retraced sharply over four months. 

At the same time, Solana’s onchain volumes and revenue metrics continue to rank higher against competitors, raising questions on whether SOL’s longer-term price prospects tilt toward a return to its all-time high.

SOL ETF resilience aligns with network use

Spot SOL ETFs launched in late October 2025, drawing over $100 million in average net inflows during their first five weeks. Since December 2025, the weekly inflows have decreased, averaging $20 million to $25 million as SOL price slid to $86 in February 2026.

Spot SOL ETFs net inflows. Source: SoSoValue

Across the four-month drawdown, the cumulative outflows total just $11.3 million over two weeks. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, by comparison, have logged four consecutive months of negative flows in the same period.

Solana’s network activity tells a different story than its price. Over the past 30 days, Solana processed $108 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, ahead of Ethereum’s $63.7 billion and Base’s $31.48 billion. Volumes in January reached $117 billion, exceeding those in December and November for the chain as well. The weekly averages since January 2025 have hovered near $20 billion to $25 billion.

Solana DEX volumes. Source: DeFiLlama

In the last 24 hours, Solana generated $3.1 million in app revenue versus Ethereum’s $2.95 million. Active addresses stood at 2.17 million against 682,236, while chain fees reached $722,706 compared to Ethereum’s $356,438.

Solana’s RWA sector has also climbed to a new all-time high of $1.71 billion, up 45% in 30 days, but Ether holds $15 billion of the $25.37 billion distributed asset value in that industry. 

Related: ETH’s next big move depends on daily close above $2.1K: Data

SOL support cluster and valuation gap

Crypto trader Scient noted two macro areas that may shape a potential bottom. The first is the 0.75 Fibonacci retracement zone between $60 and $70, a level associated with deeper pullbacks within larger uptrends.

SOL weekly analysis by Crypto Scient. Source: X

The second is a weekly demand fair value gap (FVG) between $22 and $29, an area of prior liquidity imbalance that preceded the explosive rally to $200 from $25.

For now, the structure remains capped as the price holds below the weekly resistance of $120.

On the weekly chart, SOL has already tested the demand zone between $51 and $80, aligning with that retracement pocket, and may head for a recovery from its current price.

UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data adds context. Over 6% of the supply last moved within the current price cluster, creating a dense cost basis zone. The next significant concentration, above 3% of supply, sits between $20 and $30.

SOL UTXO realized price distribution. Source: Glassnode

From a valuation standpoint, SOL is near a realized supply cluster, while the ETF positioning has not unwound, and DEX turnover leads other chains despite its lower total locked value (TVL). 

The price compression alongside consistent capital inflows and rising network use reveals a measurable gap between activity and valuation.

Whether that gap resolves through SOL’s price action depends on how the $51 to $80 level and the $120 resistance level interact with these factors over the coming months.

Related: Solana leads crypto recovery with 10% gain: Is $100 SOL price next?