Daily book

There we go.

Nasdaq moved first, volatility goes down, so #Bitcoin moves.

#Bitcoin had more than $1 billion in inflows in the first few days of the month.

Now, just days after, #Altcoins are following through.

Even though we've seen a strong correction on $ARB the structure remains intact.

I don't think we'll see a strong bear market move.

As a matter of fact, I do see that we're going to have another strong impulse to the upside.

Multiple days in a row we're seeing strength on #Bitcoin .

So, before everyone gets too excited, it's very healthy to have some consolidative days before we continue the journey higher.

It's clear that there's more ETF demand and that won't stop.

First few weeks of the month = bullish for #Bitcoin and very likely we'll continue to the 50-Week MA around $90K.

A lot of protocols are ready to do a 'mean reversion' trade.

This means that they'll follow $BTC in its footsteps and have a relatively strong run. Stronger than Bitcoin percentage-wise, as the higher Bitcoin goes, the more confidence there is.

One of them is $SUI .

It's building up for a strong breakout after multiple months of accumulation and that could even mean that, in a prolonged period, it can run to $1.75.

#Bitcoin looks ready for more upside.

It broke above $79K.

The trend clearly is upwards (and that means we can have intraday corrections).

The ETF Flows:
- May 1st: $600 million
- May 4th: $500 million

Lots of interest, and the Gold <> #Bitcoin trade is definitely taking place.

I don't think this will stall, with the current construction, soon.

Atleast there's leg room to $86-88K and most likely to $91-93K.

$TAO fights full resistance here.

However, it clearly broke above the structure and remains to be in an uptrend.

The gap towards $350 hasn't been closed yet, so I assume that we'll continue to run to atleast that level.

If that happens, ultimate resilience from the ecosystem and we're likely in for way higher prices.

ETF flows are back in the markets, and the markets are turning upwards for #Bitcoin .

Clearly above $80K since yesterday, and I assume we'll continue to see more strength coming in over the course of the next few weeks as there's a lot of ETF demand happening.

The Gold <> Bitcoin rotation trade in full force.

$ETH doesn't look great vs. Bitcoin, and the prime reason for that is just that timing matters.

If the Nasdaq shoots upwards, people will firstly move towards #Bitcoin as a higher beta play than the Nasdaq.

The time for #Altcoins is therefore selective and will likely be taking place at a later moment in time.

Is that worrysome? No, not at all.

Some altcoins will do well, but they have been performing well prior to the massive crash. They can outperform Bitcoin.

Other than that, wait for Ethereum to start moving upwards to be allocating more assets towards the altcoin markets.

#Bitcoin rejects harshly at the $80K area.

That doesn't mean that we're going to crash. Not at all.

It seems very likely that we'll consolidate a little bit more and continue to grind upwards after that.

The structure on lower timeframes remains intact until price falls beneath $73-75K, which isn't the case.

#Bitcoin looks primed for upwards momentum.

Very keen to see how the markets will react when the US opens, especially given the positive ETF flows of last Friday.

Breakout above $79K opens the opportunities all the way towards $86-88K for coming period.

What are the odds of a bull market from here?

I've tweeted this earlier, however, the crash of #Bitcoin to $60K has been one of the strongest corrections in its existence.

Not on percentage dropped, but on the impact on all indicators.

In that light, it came relatively close to the 200-Week MA and that's where price of Bitcoin stalls quite often.

That means: we can easily run to $92-95K without any breakdown of the bear market trend, and we can easily start a bull market from here.

That's where the confusion will start.

Questions will pop up: Have we seen the bottom of the bear market? Should we buy?

Those will strengthen in the coming weeks.

However, overall, even if we go to $92-95K, it's quite normal to see a 20% correction from there and just a longer period of accumulation before markets break higher.

Simply use the DCA strategy and you'll be absolutely fine in coming years.

I don't think there's going to be a full-blown #Altcoin strength.

I think it's the actual opposite, where selective altcoins will heavily outperform, and the others will just perform the same as Bitcoin does (or worse).

That's why fundamental research + conviction in selective niches makes sense.

In that light, the AI <> #Crypto convergence is such a big no-brainer to go for.

$TAO , $NEAR , $REZ are all strong ones to focus on for potential runs in the coming period.

Similarly, anything related to compute is a strong aspect of the markets as there's not been a focus yet on decentralized compute.

Finally, every portfolio, I think, should consist of $HYPE as it's by far the strongest asset in the ecosystem and continues to perform.

$TAO TP $350

The #Bitcoin 4-year cycle is something from the past.

We've seen an ATH prior to the halving.

Yes, Bitcoin has made a new ATH in Dollars, but how much value does that hold?

Did 2025 feel like it was a bull market year? Not at all, quite the opposite actually.

If you resonate it more like: Bitcoin has peaked in December '24 against Gold, and started a strong bear market year since then, then the arguments are lining up perfectly.

- Strong bear market year for #Altcoins
- Strong bear market year for Bitcoin vs. Gold --> lots of irritation that Bitcoin wasn't moving along Gold.

This has also lowered the overall upside for the previous year, which then means that the downside can be less too.

In that light, it's very likely that we won't be seeing the similar patterns of the 4-year cycles anymore, especially not if there's a $100K breach this year already.

Strong consolidation on $BTC , and Friday gave us a slight insight in what's likely to come.

There was $600 million in ETF inflow on the first trading day of the month.

I don't think this will slow down in the coming week and that's probably why we're seeing a relatively shallow consolidation taking place.

The $79K area is a crucial zone. That needs to break.

If this breaks, I'm assuming we'll see more upwards momentum and I've got $86-88K as first resistance area and $92-94K as the crucial one.

$TAO did break upwards and I don't think of selling this one soon at all.

There's a technical breakout taking place, and that has room all the way towards $350.

Given that the markets overall are looking to break upwards, I wouldn't mind if this continues to go upwards after this breakout and consolidation.

Strong resilience from the ecosystem.

Everyone is so focused on the fact that this bear market must hit the same triggers as previous bear markets for #Bitcoin .

It doesn't need to.

The upside was way more calm than the previous cycles, so the downside doesn't need to be exceeding the upside.

Now, if you look at the Median MVRV, it's hitting the same signals as during any bear market bottom in 2015, 2018, the COVID crash in 2020 and 2022.

The same signal was flagged in 2026.

Very likely we're in the bottoming stage, might have bottomed, and have approximately 2-3 years of bull market upon us.

#Bitcoin vs. Gold.

It's the important game.

During 2024, the entire 'hard asset' market of these two combined was $17T. #Bitcoin had 15% market share.

Right now, the market has increased to $35T. #Bitcoin has just a 4% market share.

I do expect Gold to come down by 20-30%, which would lower the market cap, and some money is likely rotating towards the market cap of Bitcoin.

What if the entire market stalls at $35T and #Bitcoin goes back to being 15%?

That would put Bitcoin at $250K in the next cycle.

Not a weird thing to suspect.

On top of that, we're seeing that every time Gold peaks, volatility goes down, money flows out of the asset and rotates towards #Bitcoin as the big bull run after that happens.

The halving is not important anymore, and the bear market has already ended after 14 months of pain.

Likely we're having 1.5-2 years of bull market ahead of us.

This is not great for $ETH .

I've been covering this chart multiple times.

If it clearly breaks 0.032 $BTC , that's where the party starts and when we can expect to have a lot of fun.

If it doesn't, then the next area is 0.026 $BTC and given that we're expecting Bitcoin to run to potentially even $93K, I can imagine that Ethereum needs to wait for its run to take place.

First day of the month and there’s $600 million of inflow on #Bitcoin.

The first two weeks of the month are generally more bullish than not.

Expect to see a strong breakout coming week on the markets as a consequence of the #ETF flow dynamics.