ZeroBlock

Hyperliquid has significantly expanded its revenue sources. In August, the protocol activated the AQAv2 framework.
Under the agreement, 90% of the interest earned on idle USDC on the platform is returned to the protocol. As per the arrangement, the yield accrued on a 30-day cadence and was automatically routed to the Assistance Fund after eight days.
On the 3rd of October, the protocol distributed the first interest accrued since the August activation. Thus, the protocol received $14.5 million in USDC, which was then routed to the Assistance Fund.
Inasmuch, Hyperliquid made one of its largest token burns in the last 24 hours. Onchain Lens reported that Hyperliquid bought and burned 112.58K HYPE worth $10.15 million.
100% of these funds are dedicated to open-market buybacks and are then permanently burned.
Given this, the team spent $10.15 million on token buybacks and burns. With the purchase, the team still has $4.4 million in funds, which will also be spent on additional buybacks and burns.
What about the market reaction to the deflationary milestone?
Unsurprisingly, the market responded strongly to the above developments. HYPE finally flipped the $91 resistance and rose to $93.7, clearing losses made in October so far.
At press time, Hyperliquid traded around $93.4, up 3.5% on the daily charts. The altcoin’s volume also rose by 52%, reflecting newfound market interest.
With the price hike, the upside momentum has strengthened substantially. The altcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a bullish crossover and rose to 59.
Likewise, the Relative Vigor Index (RVGI) also formed a bullish crossover and rose to -0.08. The two crossovers indicated that bulls had started to retake the market.
Under these market conditions, Hyperliquid is well-positioned for further gains on the charts. If momentum holds, the altcoin could clear $94 resistance and target $98, paving the way for a move to $100.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to give every American $5,000 if the Republicans win both chambers of the Congress in upcoming midterm elections.
From an economic perspective, this injection of cash into the economy could be yet another catalyst for a rise in the value of risky assets.
According to the head of DWF Labs, however, the impact could be much bigger. As the post below illustrates, the proposed payout would be roughly 150% of the COVID-19 stimulus checks.
If even a slice of that liquidity finds its way into crypto, it could ramp up speculative demand and potentially catalyze another 2020-21-style risk-on cycle.
However, to see if history could repeat, it is worth looking at what happened during the 2020/21 cycle.
In December 2020, Bitcoin [BTC] climbed past its previous $20k high and then more than doubled to around the $42k level by January 2021.
This was driven by increased institutional demand, as firms such as MicroStrategy and Square acquired BTC while PayPal and others offered crypto services. In the first half of 2021, BTC climbed above $60k before eventually reaching nearly $69k in November.
Thus, if another wave of cash hits consumers and even a small part of it goes into risk assets, it could lead to a liquidity-driven demand wave.
The main difference this time is that institutional participation is much deeper, so fresh liquidity can have a bigger impact on Bitcoin’s upside if the overall risk-on setup stays intact.
Is Bitcoin’s rising demand really strategic positioning?
Smart money accumulating Bitcoin at these levels can hardly be accidental.
Michael Saylor has once again sent out an “orange flag,” which usually serves as the first indication of a new BTC purchase. Besides, Wall Street isn’t backing off either.
BlackRock’s IBIT just added another $195.6 million in BTC, pushing its net accumulation to around $1.57 billion over the last month alone.
Meanwhile, the Fed is scheduled to inject $5.8 billion into the markets next week. Bitcoin has held above $80k for two consecutive weeks as buyers jump in at key support levels.
These are positive signs of strong institutional demand, as big players appear to be accumulating BTC during the consolidation phase.
In short, this adds to the case that institutional participation in Bitcoin is far stronger than it was in 2020.
Back then, the initial COVID-19 stimulus provided eligible Americans with $1,200 per adult plus $500 per child and a further $600 per adult in late December. This served as a direct cash injection and a highly liquid risk-on environment for Bitcoin in its 2020-21 bull cycle.
Now, the proposed $5,000 payment per American suggested by the U.S. President Donald Trump would far exceed 2020 levels of infusion. So, if even a fraction of that liquidity flows into Bitcoin and other risk assets, it could become another demand catalyst to an already institutionally driven market.

Bitcoin [BTC] is trading above the $85,000 mark as the broader crypto market enters a potentially bullish last quarter (Q4) of the year. Since the inception of crypto, Q4 has been mostly green, and this quarter also might follow that trend.
Despite this strength, the uptrend is facing a significant blockade from dormant whales and perpetual traders. Will bulls push BTC toward the $100K mark?
Dormant Bitcoin whales wake up after 13 years
In the past 24 hours, two Bitcoin OGs who bought 1,346 BTC about 13 years ago have woken up, with their position now valued at $115 million. The two dormant wallets are sitting on a 479x return.
This amount was worth $240K, with the two whales moving 0.0005 BTC valued at $43 as a test transaction. This hints that the two OGs could be warming up for a sell. Still, the test transaction could also be a way to manage the position.
While the transaction could be hinting at a sale, the perpetual Futures market is also adding to the pressure.
As per CoinGlass, large sell orders in the $87K-$91K zone are forming four massive walls below $100K. These supply zones were at $88K, $89K, $90K, and $91K, capping the ongoing uptrend.
Even with the impending selling pressure, spot whale demand could push past $91K. Here is why:
Why the $100K target remains viable
First, traders on Kalshi were betting on the price crossing the $100K mark before the year ended. The odds were at 39% and continuing to steadily rise with around three months left before the close.
Technically, the weekly timeframe was reinforcing this outlook. Bitcoin has just secured its second weekly candle close above the May highs. Every weekly close above this level adds further confirmation.
As per the weekly charts, the $100K and $127K levels were the next resistance.
On the lower timeframes, like the 15-minute, spot bulls were buying dips. In fact, the aggregate CVD was rising with over 2K BTC bought on Coinalyze.
However, liquidity is stacked on both sides, with a larger pool sitting below, that is, between $81,000 and $84,150. This indicates BTC was likely to drop if the bulls did not clear the $91K resistance.

Zama [ZAMA] has emerged as one of the strongest-performing tokens in the market after extending its breakout with another double-digit gain. The token has rallied by 17.55% over the last 24 hours. This builds on momentum that began after it successfully retested an ascending channel resistance level as support at $0.074 two days ago.
That technical confirmation encouraged fresh buying. As a result, the token’s price action reclaimed higher levels as participation accelerated across the market. What is more intriguing is that the rally is also being backed by strengthening on-chain fundamentals.
Could the network bulls keep current momentum going? Let’s find out.
Record TVL signals growing network adoption
One of the biggest factors standing out behind the latest advance is the continued growth of the ZAMA ecosystem.The network’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has climbed to a new all-time high at $99 million, indicating that more capital is being committed to the protocol.
Moreover, growth across Morpho vault expansion and Zama Swap has contributed to the increase, pointing to improving ecosystem usage and stronger investor confidence.
Derivatives activity supports the breakout
Besides the position long-term and holders sentiments, market participation has also strengthened across both spot and derivatives markets.
The network’s open Interest has spiked by more than 29% to $38.71 million. This suggests fresh capital is entering the futures market. As a result, traders position for further bullish advances.
Can ZAMA reclaim $0.108?
On the daily chart, the next major technical objective for bulls sits around the $0.108 swing high. A continued expansion in TVL, sustained growth in Open Interest and elevated trading activity could provide the momentum needed for buyers to challenge that level.
However, after a rapid 17% advance, a short-term profit-taking before the next bullish push could be on cards. This is more so given that short dominance among the leveraged position giving a hint.
All in all, the long term structure leans to the bulls favor and most fundamentals and on-chain metrics support an extended bullish momentum in the long run.

Pump.fun’s revenue surge is reshaping the competition for protocol earnings, driven by renewed trading activity across its Solana launchpad. Over a 30-day time frame, Pump.fun earned $55.5 million, exceeding Hyperliquid’s $54.34 million, earning it third place in total earnings.
The large increase in revenue for Pump.fun will alter the competitive landscape of who receives earnings from protocols due to renewed levels of trading on all launchpads offered by Pump.fun on Solana.
This is important because Pump.fun [PUMP] earns money through rapid launching of tokens and their subsequent trading. On the other hand, Hyperliquid [HYPE] generates revenue through perpetual activity.
Hyperliquid’s $11.19 million weekly revenue trails that pace, widening the short-term gap. As such, sustained memecoin trading may reinforce Pump.fun’s position relative to Hyperliquid and significantly increase PUMP’s economic relevance.
However, if the demand for trading declines rapidly, the order of the rankings will likely shift, and hyperliquid would reclaim its spot.
Pump.fun’s trading volume surges
Pump.fun’s trading volume went from approximately $5 million per day in July to over $40 million in October. Thus, it appears that demand is no longer limited to short-term or occasional spikes.
PUMP’s daily turnover was clearly rising in mid-August and accelerated into early September. This was as turnover frequently reached $30-$45 million per day and occasionally exceeded $60 million.
Why does this matter? Pump.fun generates revenue based on user activity such as launching, trading, and rotating through tokens. Thus, an increase in trading volume will expand pump.fun’s base of revenue-generating activities.
This trend also supports PUMP’s economic narrative. Sustained volume provides an additional foundation for continued revenue growth. However, a decline in volume would quickly reduce that support.
Whale accumulation strengthens PUMP
Meanwhile, after an entire year with little to no movement, Netherlol made its comeback, purchasing 383.34 million PUMP valued at $2.4 million. Following this transaction, another wallet withdrew 189.22 million PUMP, valued at $1.18 million, from MEXC.
Together, these withdrawals remove a portion of the available tokens to be traded during periods when there has already been an increase in trading volume.
As long as these two whales hold onto the coins they have purchased or withdrawn, fewer tokens will be available to trade on exchanges. This can lead to tighter supplies of tokens, which will also allow buyers to have a greater impact on price movement.
This will provide more substantial support to Pump.fun’s revenue, thus allowing for a stronger form of growth that is no longer solely dependent upon platform activity.
However, renewed deposits could reverse this effect, making whale movements important for confirming whether accumulation becomes a durable trend.

Bitcoin is up 46% from its July low and could reclaim its all-time high (ATH) of $126K by Q1 2027. According to Ecoinometrics, historical drawdowns and recoveries suggest Bitcoin could take 60 to 230 days to reclaim its previous ATH.
Assuming the $57.8K low on the 1st of July marked the bottom, the rebound would be approximately three months old. The longer recovery timeline would stretch into February 2027. The research firm added,
Bitcoin is currently around 90 days past the bottom and still about 30% below its all-time high. By historical standards, this recovery does not look mature yet. If the trend holds, there is still room for it to develop well into Q1
This is a very aggressive target compared to Citigroup analysts, who expected BTC to hit $113K by Q3/Q4 2027. The asset traded at $85K at press time.
What’s currently weighing Bitcoin down?
On-chain data supported the Ecoinometrics outlook. According to prominent Bitcoin quant analyst Frank Fetter, Bitcoin’s ‘expansion’ phase could kick off in early 2027.
The analyst cited the Choppiness Index, which distinguishes sideways conditions from trending markets.
Per the attached chart, expansion momentum increases if the Choppiness Index retreats. As of writing, the index was near a peak, and the metric’s pullback would suggest an accelerated BTC expansion phase.
Which raises a crucial question: what’s currently delaying the expansion or recovery phase?
Simple answer: the macro landscape, specifically inflation.
Why is inflation holding Bitcoin back?
According to Ecoinmetrics, headline US inflation has been sticky and hasn’t trended down as expected.
The Bitcoin setup is improving, but persistent inflation still puts a limit on how aggressively we should lean into it simply because of this looming macro risk.
Both US inflation and labor market status inform Fed rate decisions. Last reinforced a cooling labor market and diminished Fed rate hike fears ahead of the FOMC meeting on 28th of October. This sparked a recovery across equity markets, but Bitcoin didn’t join the broader market rebound.
Another inflation data release (CPI) scheduled for 14th October would confirm whether the Fed will hold interest rates steady or hike by a quarter point.
While inflation has dictated Bitcoin’s demand, the asset has its own factors that have weighed on its recovery.
Who is selling into Bitcoin’s recovery?
Notably, 2025 top buyers are at break-even and driving the current according to Glassnode.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year. Those who bought the decline are not.

Aave’s [AAVE] recent pullback from its latest high of approximately $188 is in fact testing the breakout responsible for the run-up in price at this level. The price of Aave initially sliced past $176 after hitting a new high of $188 before retracing back down towards $180.51.
In other words, the price of Aave remained above previous resistance. This makes this significant since a break below $176 will be the first opportunity for the buyers to demonstrate if they can maintain the recent gains.
On the other hand, the rising trendline connecting the large lower highs since the 16th of September, when the token bottomed near $111, continues to indicate a biased upward structure.
Meanwhile, Aave’s price action overall trend remains bullish, where every breakout was followed by a successful retest. Moreover, the RSI stood near 68 as of writing. This implied strong momentum without reaching overbought territory.
Ultimately, holding above $176 would preserve the structure, while losing it could expose $156-$158 as the next support.
Aave deposits near $4 trillion
The scale of Aavas growth is evident beyond price momentum. The total cumulative deposits began to grow slowly in 2021, and the cumulative deposits grew at a much greater rate beginning around the end of 2022.
By 2023, the number of cumulative deposits had slowed down. At this point, cumulative deposits were approximately $1 trillion, a significant slowdown in new deposit activity.
In 2024, however, cumulative deposits began to grow again at an even faster pace, reaching $2 trillion and then $3 trillion.
Deposits continued to be strong in 2025 and 2026, and by mid-2026, cumulative deposits had risen to over about $3.8 trillion.
Aave’s strongest period of deposit growth was after 2024. It’s worth noting that the size of Aave’s market for loans matters in determining whether it will become more or less important relative to other lending platforms.
At nearly $4 trillion in cumulative deposits, Aave has clearly increased its scale of business. As such, its large pool of transactions also increases its competitive advantage relative to other lending platforms.
Aave proposes a new ownership structure
Aave is transitioning from building a protocol to establishing a defined legal entity that will be responsible for the core assets. In the proposal the protocol stated that a foundation will be established that will hold all of Aave’s intellectual property.
In the proposal, token holders cannot directly acquire direct ownership of trademarks or domain names. Moreover, they cannot pursue legal claims as a result of the current DAO governance structure.
Phase 1 vote allows for the creation of this new structure without passing any of the existing assets to it. Thus, there will be no need to conduct votes regarding the transfer of assets until after the framework has been created.
By doing so, Aave will be able to create a structure to facilitate future ownership transfers while limiting any immediate impacts.
Aave holds above $176, while deposits near $3.8 trillion show sustained lending growth.AAVE is building a legal structure for core assets, with future votes deciding IP transfers.

LayerZero [ZRO] was up 12% at press time, with Binance traders in the market driving the gains, as they remain critical to the asset’s next phase.
Still, this doesn’t eliminate the broader role of traders across the perpetual market who are actively positioning for more upside.
Rising perpetual market volume supports ZRO’s rally
The broader gain in the market has been led by a surge in buying volume across the perpetual market for ZRO specifically.
The volume across the perpetual market for ZRO hit roughly $279 million in the past day, with the Long/Short Ratio staying at 1.56 as of writing. This indicates that the volume in the market is largely coming from long traders.
The context of the buying becomes more insightful when weighed against the Funding Rate of the market. This metric shows whether long or short positions are dominant in a perpetual contract market.
CoinGlass data shows that Binance accounts for the majority of the positions, with the OI-Weighted Funding Rate reaching 0.0066%, suggesting bullish positioning remains dominant.
Binance traders lead the bullish positioning
Binance, among all other cryptocurrency exchanges, controls the most volume across other venues, with data from CoinGlass reporting it at $92.36 million.
The volume dominance shows that the majority of the activity, more than 32% of the total volume, is coming from Binance. Moreover, traders’ actions matter in influencing the price trajectory.
Data shows that Binance traders are fully bullish on the price outlook. Retail traders are accumulating, with buying volume at 1.57. Whales, who control large amounts of capital, are on the same side with a 4.47 Long/Short Ratio, while smart money, which makes profitable bets, is also extremely bullish.
However, liquidation activity in the market warns that going bullish too soon carries a major risk of loss even as the price rallies. Binance traders in the past 24 hours have lost around $74,380, more than short traders’ $47,500 within the same window.
More broadly, losses across the broader market point to the same trend, as a lack of proper positioning has put longs at more than $141,281 in losses over the past 24 hours.
Selling pressure remains a risk to ZRO’s gains
Sellers in the market remain a major concern for what could limit ZRO’s performance in the near term. As it is, spot market flow shows that traders have continued to cash out steadily from the market, with roughly $2.52 million in Netflow, indicating more selling than buying.
This trend has continued over the last ten days, with roughly +$9.07 million in Netflow, confirming that sellers remain active in the market.

Is the hype around QNT fading? After facing rejection at $326, Quant lost the $300-support and fell to a low of $237.
At press time, QNT was trading at around $239, down 18% on the daily charts. Over the same window, the spot trading volume fell by 33% to $474 million too.
This fall in value was driven largely by intense selling pressure as investors turned to cash out their recent gains. Just recently, the altcoin recorded 250% weekly gains, with the same leading to significant profit-taking. This market behavior has now possibly become even more stubborn.
Quant investors reduce exposure after a parabolic rally
As Quant’s [QNT] decline persisted on the charts, a significant share of bulls were kicked out of the market. According to Coinglass, QNT saw over $4.8 million in total liquidations. Longs suffered the most, with $3.5 million in longs liquidated.
The elevated liquidation risk, especially for longs, triggered fear. As a result, traders hurriedly closed their positions.
Within a single 24-hour period, Quant Futures recorded $480 million in outflows compared to $453 million in inflows. As a result, the Futures Netflow fell by 1120% to -$26.7 million.
Such a massive drop in Netflow hinted at risk aversion, with traders choosing to exit before the price dropped further.
On top of that, the altcoin’s Open Interest seemed to confirm this shift in sentiment as it fell by 15% to $167 million.
A look at the Spot market
The Spot market saw elevated profit-taking throughout the recent price hike. A look at the Spot Netflows revealed that the metric has mostly been positive since the rally started.
Over the past week, Netflows fell negative only twice. At press time, the metric sat around $1.3 million, marking a notable reversal from -$11 million the previous day.
Such a shift in flow suggests that most investors are actively cashing out. High profit realization creates more downside pressure on the charts.
In fact, every time the Netflow climbed into the positive zone, the price retraced. The trend is likely to continue this time too.
Can QNT hold the pressure?
On the daily charts, seemed to have weakened considerably. A look at the Normalized RVGI revealed that this momentum indicator has declined for three consecutive days, falling to 30 at press time.
A falling NRVGI alludes to fading bullish momentum. Likewise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also continued to drop, forming a bearish crossover.
The RSI was still holding at around 69 though, suggesting that buyers are yet to fully lose control. However, if profit-taking continues, Quant will likely see more losses.
Further losses at the press time price level will lead to a drop below $200, with $195 as a critical support level. If market bulls hold on, reclaiming $300 will remain on the table though.

Bitcoin Has An $85K Confirmation Test
What caught my attention with Bitcoin is not the move above $85K.
It is the difference between what the derivatives market is expecting and what spot buyers are actually doing.
BTC has already delivered a strong Q3 with a 42% gain. Now October is starting with price above a level that buyers struggled to reclaim for several days.
The $85K breakout matters.
Glassnode data suggests much of the sell wall around that area has already been absorbed. If liquidity above price remains thin then Bitcoin could move faster if fresh buyers enter.
The macro picture has also become less restrictive.
Rate hike expectations reportedly dropped from around 70% to 26% as markets started pricing a greater chance of a pause.
That can reduce some pressure on risk assets.
But this is where I would be careful with the word breakout.
Spot demand has not fully confirmed the move yet.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs ended September with around $3.1B in net outflows after a nine day inflow streak. Wednesday alone saw around $148.7M in net outflows.
At the same time futures positioning has started leaning more toward longs.
That creates a divergence.
Traders are becoming more comfortable positioning for higher prices while spot flows are not showing the same strength.
There is also another supply zone above.
Around $136.72M in BTC sell orders are reportedly stacked between $89K and $109K on Coinbase.
So even if $85K is cleared the market still has meaningful overhead liquidity to deal with.
For me the most important question is simple.
Can Bitcoin hold $85K when the short term excitement fades?
If BTC stays above $85K while ETF flows recover then the breakout has stronger confirmation behind it.
If ETF outflows continue while futures longs increase then the setup becomes more fragile.
That does not automatically mean a crash.
It simply means leveraged traders could be getting ahead of actual spot demand.
I would watch $85K as the first line.
A successful retest would tell me the old resistance is becoming support.
A move back below it would make the recent breakout much less convincing.
October has started with a strong move.
Now Bitcoin needs to prove that $85K is not just another level that traders briefly pushed through.

AAVE Has A $200 Test
What caught my attention with AAVE is not the 20% weekly rally.
It is the difference between what the chart is showing and what the protocol is doing underneath it.
AAVE has pushed above $180 and recovered toward levels last seen around the beginning of the year. The token is also up more than 60% recently while AAVE/BTC has gained for four straight weeks.
That tells me this is not simply AAVE moving because Bitcoin moved higher.
But there is a problem.
The technical setup is getting stretched.
AAVE/BTC is already up more than 10% this month and the token is approaching the $200 area. After a move this fast some holders sitting near breakeven may start taking profits if momentum slows.
There is also a rotation risk.
Part of AAVE's recent strength appears to be coming from capital moving away from Bitcoin and toward altcoins. If Bitcoin dominance starts rising again then some of that capital could rotate back.
That would make the path toward $200 harder.
But the onchain data gives AAVE another layer.
Aave has reportedly processed more than $1.1 trillion in cumulative borrow volume.
DeFi activity is also improving. TVL reportedly reached almost $20B after rising around 18% from the previous month while fees crossed $37M.
That matters because it gives the rally something beyond chart momentum.
Price is rising while the underlying lending activity is also expanding.
Still I would not treat stronger fundamentals as protection against a correction.
AAVE can have growing TVL and fees while traders take profits at the same time.
For me the $200 area is therefore less about predicting whether AAVE reaches it and more about watching how price behaves if it gets there.
If buyers push through $200 with strong spot demand then the rally has another confirmation point.
If AAVE stalls below $200 while AAVE/BTC starts weakening then the recent rotation could be losing momentum.
The key support from here is around $180.
Holding that area would keep the current structure intact.
Losing it would make me more cautious about the strength of the breakout.
AAVE has real usage behind the move.
Now the question is whether demand can keep absorbing profit taking as price approaches $200.

What caught my attention with TRUMP is not the new dinner announcement.
It is the fact that the token is still sitting inside a very tight price structure while a new incentive is being introduced for holders.
The organizers have announced a November 22 gala for the top 185 $TRUMP holders. Eligibility is based on time weighted holdings during the measurement period rather than simply holding the largest amount on one day. The top 29 also qualify for a VIP reception.
That structure itself could create some short term demand because holders have an incentive to maintain their positions.
But holding more tokens to qualify for an event is not the same thing as organic market demand.
That distinction matters for the chart.
TRUMP recently moved around the $2 area and the article data shows a broader range around $1.80 to $2.20.
For me $2.20 is the first real test.
If buyers can reclaim that level and hold it then the market could start testing higher resistance.
If TRUMP keeps getting rejected around $2.20 then the dinner narrative may simply create temporary volatility without changing the underlying structure.
There is another detail worth watching.
The event rules use a November 12 snapshot. That means the incentive is tied to sustained holdings rather than a single purchase immediately before the dinner.
This can affect how holders position themselves during the coming weeks.
But it also creates a possible risk.
If some traders accumulate tokens mainly to qualify and later reduce their positions after the snapshot then the demand created by the event could prove temporary.
Previous TRUMP holder events also attracted political and regulatory scrutiny. In April 2026 Senators Elizabeth Warren Adam Schiff and Richard Blumenthal requested documents related to an earlier event and asked about the president's role and potential financial interests. Those were requests for investigation rather than findings of wrongdoing.
So I would separate the political debate from the chart.
The market only needs to answer one immediate question.
Can TRUMP turn $2.20 into support?
If yes then the November event gives traders another catalyst to watch.
If no then the dinner headline may remain just that.
For me the event creates a potential demand incentive.
The chart still has to prove whether that incentive is strong enough to change the trend.

What caught my attention with XRP is not the move toward $1.55.
It is the supply and demand meeting at the same time.
XRP has been forming a tightening structure after reaching around $1.665. Each recovery has created a lower high while buyers have continued defending the rising support around $1.45 to $1.47.
That puts $1.54 in the middle of the current battle.
XRP is trading around $1.49 with RSI near 46.02. Momentum is not strong enough to call this a confirmed breakout setup but buyers have also not completely lost control.
Then the supply side gets interesting.
Ripple released another 1 billion XRP through four scheduled unlocks of 400M 300M 300M and 100M tokens.
The headline number sounds large.
But the more useful data is what happens after the unlock.
A token release does not automatically mean 1 billion XRP will suddenly enter the market for sale. Some of the released supply can return to escrow.
That means exchange balances and actual wallet flows matter more than the unlock headline itself.
At the same time Evernorth plans to build an XRP treasury backed by more than $1.1B in committed capital and reportedly intends to place around 566M XRP into the treasury.
If that capital is actually deployed then it creates another potential source of demand.
But I would separate committed capital from executed buying.
The market still needs to see the XRP move happen.
That creates an interesting supply test.
If newly released XRP remains away from exchanges while institutional demand starts absorbing available supply then the additional tokens may have limited short term impact.
If exchange balances rise sharply after the unlock then the situation changes.
Now back to the chart.
For me $1.54 is the level that matters.
A clean breakout and hold above $1.54 would put $1.70 back into focus.
But repeated rejection around $1.54 would tell me that sellers are still controlling the upper part of the range.
The real signal is therefore not the 1 billion XRP unlock by itself.
It is where those tokens go after the unlock.
XRP has potential demand coming in.
It also has new supply being released.
The next move will show which side is actually stronger.

What caught my attention with QNT is not the 250% weekly rally.
It is how quickly the market moved from $232 back toward $280 after touching around $330.
That kind of move creates a very different problem for the chart.
Early buyers are sitting on large unrealized gains. That means the same buyers who helped push QNT higher can also become potential sellers if momentum starts fading.
The $300 area now looks important.
QNT already reached above it before pulling back. So another move toward $300 will tell us more about the strength of the current recovery.
The RSI was around 68.04 after previously moving above 80.
That tells me momentum has cooled from extreme levels but remains elevated.
Then there is the wallet activity.
A dormant wallet that had reportedly been inactive for around seven years moved 25,776 QNT worth roughly $6.97M into new wallets.
This is the part I would watch closely.
The tokens did not move directly to a centralized exchange. So there is no confirmed evidence that the holder is preparing to sell.
But the wallet reportedly still holds around 600,000 QNT worth roughly $160M.
That changes the supply discussion.
If more of those tokens start moving toward exchanges then the market could begin pricing in additional potential supply.
For now it is only a warning signal.
The recent rally has already created enough profit for early holders to consider taking some money off the table. The dormant wallet movement adds another layer of uncertainty without proving that selling has started.
For me $300 is the cleanest level to watch.
If QNT reclaims $300 and holds it then the market could start testing the previous $330 high again.
If price gets rejected around $300 then a deeper pullback would not be surprising after such an extreme weekly move.
The bigger warning would be a combination of falling price and increasing exchange deposits from large dormant holders.
That would turn wallet activity from an interesting signal into actual supply pressure.
QNT has already shown that buyers can move the price quickly.
Now the question is whether those buyers can absorb the profits waiting above them.

What caught my attention with the latest ESMA proposal is not simply that Europe wants more DeFi regulation.
It is the question of what actually counts as decentralized.
ESMA is proposing clearer criteria for deciding which activities can be considered genuinely decentralized. It also wants a new regulated crypto asset service for firms that provide users with access to DeFi protocols.
That creates an interesting problem.
A protocol can run through smart contracts on a public blockchain while the interface users depend on is still operated by a company.
So where does decentralization actually end?
If the protocol is decentralized but the main access point is centralized then regulators may have a much easier target.
This matters because MiCA currently excludes crypto asset services provided in a fully decentralized way without an intermediary. ESMA is now looking at how that boundary should work as DeFi develops.
The second part of the proposal is tokenized securities.
ESMA says Europe needs a framework for tokenized securities and on chain settlement that can support an integrated European tokenized capital market and cross border activity.
That could become more important than the DeFi headline itself.
Tokenization is still relatively small today but regulators are clearly treating it as something that could become part of traditional financial infrastructure. ESMA has already identified tokenization as an area where adoption is building while also pointing to problems around interoperability and on chain cash settlement.
There is also a clear compliance direction.
ESMA wants stronger supervisory powers around areas such as fraud investor protection and AML enforcement. The proposal also includes new rules around crypto asset classification.
For me the interesting part is not whether Europe regulates DeFi.
It is how the final rules define responsibility.
If an interface provides access to a decentralized protocol then the interface could become the regulated layer even when the underlying smart contracts remain decentralized.
That could reshape how DeFi products are built and distributed across Europe.
The technology may remain permissionless.
But the front door could become regulated.

What caught my attention with HYPE is not the 3.48% move.
It is what happened before the move.
Hyperliquid reportedly completed a $329M OTC sale involving 3.75M HYPE tokens to one institutional buyer. That matters because a large token sale can create short term supply pressure. With the transaction handled OTC the market avoided seeing all of that supply hit the open market at once.
HYPE then recovered toward $89.55.
But this is where I would slow down.
The price is now sitting around a level that has already acted as support before. On the 4 hour chart $89.6 is the important area because HYPE broke below it near the end of September and is now trying to reclaim it.
The daily chart also shows a similar situation.
HYPE has been trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci level since mid September. Buyers managed to defend that area and push price back toward $90.
That is a positive change.
But the momentum is still not strong.
Daily RSI is around 54.28 which gives buyers a small advantage without showing aggressive momentum. The 4 hour RSI is even closer to neutral at around 52.09.
OBV is another detail I would watch.
It had been trending higher but recently flattened. On the 4 hour chart OBV also stabilized after a sharp decline.
For me this suggests selling pressure may have cooled but fresh demand has not clearly taken control yet.
That makes $89.6 the level I care about most.
If HYPE reclaims $89.6 and holds it as support then the next area I would watch is $92 to $94.
If price fails to hold $89.6 then the recent recovery becomes less convincing and HYPE could remain stuck in consolidation or move lower again.
The OTC sale reduced one obvious short term supply concern.
But removing selling pressure is not the same as creating new demand.
Now the chart needs to show whether buyers can actually turn $89.6 back into support.
That reaction matters more to me than the 3.5% daily gain.

What caught my attention with Ethereum is not just the 70.8% gain in Q3.
It is how quickly ETH changed its position after two difficult quarters.
Ethereum lost around 29.26% in Q1 and another 25.28% in Q2. Then Q3 delivered a 70.8% recovery. That was stronger than its previous quarterly high of 66.55% in Q3 2025.
ETH also outperformed Bitcoin by 42.71% during the quarter.
But I would not assume that one strong quarter guarantees another.
Historical data gives a reason to stay cautious. Ethereum's median Q4 return is reportedly around 0.36% compared with a historical average of 16.97%. Past returns do not predict the next quarter but they show why momentum alone is not enough.
The whale activity is also interesting.
A wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 ETH worth around $356.2M into a new wallet. This is a significant movement but it was not a direct exchange deposit. I would not treat it as confirmed selling or buying.
Another whale opened a $40.6M ETH long alongside a $33.62M Bitcoin short. That position is more interesting because it is designed to benefit from ETH outperforming BTC rather than simply betting on the entire market rising.
Now I am watching the ETH/BTC ratio.
It moved from around 0.0316 to 0.0325 before pulling back. Buyers defended the 0.0319 area and pushed it back toward 0.0323.
That level matters because ETH needs to maintain relative strength if the Q3 trend is going to continue.
Derivatives positioning is active too. Hyperliquid ETH open interest reportedly exceeds $3.1B while funding remains mildly positive around 0.00125% hourly.
That suggests long positioning is present but it also means leverage deserves attention.
For me the important question in Q4 is whether spot demand can support ETH while the ETH/BTC ratio continues holding higher levels.
If spot activity weakens then crowded expectations could unwind quickly.
ETH has already proved it can outperform Bitcoin for one quarter.
Now it needs to prove that the move has enough demand behind it to continue.

What caught my attention with PERPTools is not the $8M it just raised.
It is what the team is trying to connect together.
PERPTools has raised $3M in pre seed funding at a $30M FDV and another $5M seed round at an $80M FDV. But the more interesting part is that the project is being built by the team behind DEXTools and is using Orderly Network for its trading infrastructure.
That changes the usual problem for a new perp platform.
Most new trading venues have to find traders first and then find enough liquidity to make those traders stay.
PERPTools already has access to the DEXTools user base which reportedly includes around 30M traders.
The beta numbers are also worth watching.
The platform says it has already processed around $240M in beta volume before its token even exists.
But volume alone does not prove that the model works.
The real question is whether traders actually stay after the initial launch activity fades.
PERPTools already has three products live.
There is the Perp DEX for leveraged trading.
There is AI Arena where users can create autonomous trading agents with defined risk parameters and track their verified onchain PnL.
Then there is Tap Prediction which uses live perpetual price feeds for prediction markets.
This is where I think the infrastructure story gets more interesting.
Instead of treating AI trading as another separate product the platform is putting autonomous agents directly into the same liquidity environment used by regular traders.
That creates a different question for the future.
If AI agents become active market participants then liquidity is no longer only about attracting human traders. It also becomes about how these agents behave under leverage and changing market conditions.
PERPTools is targeting a Q4 2026 TGE.
So for me the funding headline is only the starting point.
The real test will be whether $240M of beta volume turns into sustainable activity after the token launch and whether the AI trading layer creates genuine demand rather than just another narrative around perpetuals.
The infrastructure is already being built.
Now the market has to prove there is a reason to keep using it.