thedefivillain

I find this $VIRTUAL chart quite fascinating

Massive up only runner and leader of the strongest on-chain narratives of 2024, Burj Khalifa over 3 months, and then a strong echo bubble capped at the $2 res

(It obviously looks very cooked here but the last time I said this it went up 60% the next day lol... pretty sure it's really cooked this time tho)

$BTC price action will look more and more like $SPX price action and there is nothing you can do about this

We are obviously still far away from the end of this 'transition phase'

I've noticed that newbies always try to attribute the moves in the market to "whales trying to manipulate the price in order to shake out XYZ"

That's also why they like the liquidations heatmaps ("Wow we are definitely going to this price because there is a large cluster of people to liquidate there!")

Each time $BTC goes down -10%, you should remember how quickly it pumps back up

(and pray that we are not in the middle of one of these -20% dumps)

Do you realize that ETFs and BTC treasury companies will keep buying $BTC for months ?

So don't be a pussy

Make sure that you will be long BTC (and not sidelined... or short) when the next leg of this kind happens

If you want to short, short altcoins...

That's particularly true after a bounce

The fact that $ICP is still trading +75% higher than its 2023 bottom is crazy to me

The coin went up 7x from bottom to top

Sex is great but have you ever tried opening your trading account and seeing that a limit order has been hit at a perfect level while you were away, and your position is now deep in profit ?

I like $RESOLV as a long again here :

- Small cap (sub $30M) listed on Binance spot
- High OI/mcap ratio (>1) ie potential short squeeze
- Clean bottoming while the market has made lower lows
- Still a new coin
- Sub $200M FDV looks okay
- Could benefit from the CRCL pump / stablecoin narrative

$PORTAL : a -99% story, in a bit more than a year

Some charts are truly a work of art

This is the log chart of SANDBTC

It's still +120% above it's January 2021 lows

This was truly an echo bubble on AI agent coins, they went down -95% from their ATH, and on the first signs of life in the market, pumped 3x-5x again in a few weeks before going back to dead mode

The recent Upbit listings have all been great shorts

Glad to see that the market is still providing us with such inefficiencies

The only thing that can be tricky is the funding

$LPT $RVN $AXL $ALT

As someone who is permanently skewed towards a long BTC / short altcoins positioning, this scenario is a scary one that could happen again :

In late Feb 2025, when $BTC broke down below its $92k support, it lost almost -20% in 3 days, and surprisingly, the altcoins outperformed during most of that move

One reason for that is that they had gotten destroyed during the previous weeks (there was a massive cascade down on Feb 2 for example), whereas BTC had not capitulated at all before that dump.

I think there is a risk we are going to see the same scenario again (because many altcoins are already rekt, while BTC is chilling above $100k), but it's not my base assumption.
My base scenario is for $BTC to bottom between here and $98k, without a meaningful outperformance from altcoins.

This April/May move on altcoins was basically a tiny echo bubble for coins that went crazy in late 2024 and then died in Q1 :

Memecoins
AI agent coins
VIRTUAL
SUI

The other top-performers are either revenue-generating projects or pure memes :

HYPE AAVE SYRUP
FARTCOIN SPX

I'm hoping for this to break down at some point

Send every XRP bull back to waging pronto

Altcoins : 6 days of fun allowed every 3 months

$SIGN is a short imo

$ATH still trading at $1.4bn FDV is quite surprising given its low mindshare.

$IO (similar project) is sub $600M FDV for reference.

I am short-biased on $ATH

Thank God I didn't have an easy way to short $CRCL so I didn't even try LMAO